packers chief player props
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Even with Aaron Rodgers on the sideline for this highly anticipated matchup, Packers vs. Chiefs will feature no shortage of stars on the field. Relatedly, there will be no shortage of betting dollars flowing on prop bets.

Let’s take a look at this NFL Week 9 matchup with our best Packers vs. Chiefs player props picks.

Packers vs. Chiefs Player Props

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Mecole Hardman Over 3.5 Receptions

Green Bay boasts the league’s No. 6 passing defense in terms of yards allowed (216.8), but the Packers have given up a considerable share of ground to second and third wide receiver options in terms of receptions this season. The Packers are No. 13 in terms of completions against (22.6) and pass attempts against (34.0) per game.

By comparison, we know Kansas City lives and dies by Patrick Mahomes’ right arm, attempting the second most passes per game in the NFL (42.6), a number that jumps to the league’s highest mark in home games (45.5). Following suit, the Chiefs average the second most completions per game (28.4), along with the most completions per game at home (29).

Asking Mecole Hardman to catch four of those balls seems like a reasonable ask. After all, he is third on the team in targets (47), receptions (35), and receiving yards (352). The next highest Chief in each of those respective categories has 19 catches, 25 targets, and 255 receiving yards, all distant fourths on the team.

Simple math tells you that Hardman is having the ball thrown his way nearly six times a game, catching 4.4 balls per outing, which is plenty enough to cash this prop. The wideout has become increasingly important to Mahomes as the season has progressed, being targeted 7.3 times per game and catching 5.5 of those balls per outing over the team’s last four games after averaging just 4.5 targets and catching 3.3 balls per game in Kansas City’s first four contests.

Seeing that Hardman has topped this prop’s requirement in each of the Chiefs’ last four games should be enough to inspire confidence, but Green Bay’s ineffectiveness against teams’ second wideouts should have you fully onboard here. The No. 2 wide receiver option has caught at least three balls in every game against the Packers this season, managing to pull down four or more receptions in six of the team’s eight contests. In fact, all three opponents that Green Bay has faced that are in the NFL’s top 17 in terms of completions per game had their quarterback’s second wideout option top this prop’s number.

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Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Despite Kansas City’s struggles offensively lately Tyreek Hill has managed to cross the goal line in three of the last four games in which the Chiefs have scored a touchdown. Even though Kansas City scored just 20 points in Monday night’s win over the Giants, Hill saw a season high 18 targets, catching 12 of those passes, with one going for a score.

He now has six touchdowns through eight games and should have some chances to score once again in this meeting with Green Bay.

Hill is tied for the league lead in targets with 90 and leads the league in receptions with 64. He scored in 11 of the 15 regular season games in which he played in 2020, despite seeing the ball thrown his way far less than he has so far this season.

Despite Mahomes’ interception issues this season, while also throwing just one touchdown over the last two weeks, he still has 19 touchdowns, accounting for 76 percent of the team’s offensive scores.

You might think that Green Bay’s top ten passing yardage defense might be able to keep Mahomes from breaking out of his slump, but, ironically, 14 of the 22 touchdowns the Packers have allowed this season have come through the air, the NFL’s 14th highest rate.

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A wide receiver had scored against Green Bay in every game this season until last week, too, with opponents’ top wideouts scoring in half of those contests. Interestingly, six of their opponents’ top targets on the season, which we obviously know Hill is for Kansas City, have scored touchdowns.

With Hill likely to see the ball more than any of those players, it’s a good bet that he finds his way into the end zone.

Marcedes Lewis Anytime Touchdown Scorer

This prop is loaded with value, as you can get Marcedes Lewis to score a touchdown at +450 odds or better. With Robert Tonyan out for the season and Aaron Rodgers sidelined due to COVID-19, backup Jordan Love is going to need the tight end and Lewis will be that guy, even if by default.

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Lewis is known for his prowess as a blocking tight end, which actually adds to his value in a game like this. Expect to see him on the line as an extra blocker in a run heavy scheme by the Packers, trying to keep the Kansas City pass rush from teeing off on Love in his first start.

From that position, Green Bay should be able to create some play-action opportunities for Love and Lewis, especially around the goal line. Kansas City is just No. 25 against the pass and No. 21 against the run, so the Chiefs won’t be able to cheat too much either way defensively. Deception by Green Bay should create space for Lewis to work.

Lewis has just nine catches on 11 targets this season, but the next closest Packers tight end has just four catches and four targets. Lewis also made one of the greatest potential touchdown catches of the season last week that got called back as his second foot never got down inbounds. He has caught as many as ten touchdowns in a season and has 37 for his career, including three last season, despite catching just 10 balls all year.

Kansas City is a habitual victim regarding tight end scores. A tight end has scored on the Chiefs in each of their last five games, including two different tight ends last Monday night alone.

With a young quarterback under center for Green Bay who will want quick, safe options inside the red zone, expect Lewis to have a shot to deliver a big payday for us with a touchdown catch here.

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