The Home Run Derby is one of the most fun nights of the MLB season. The biggest bats in the game are gearing up to launch baseballs to the moon. With the All-Star Game and Home Run Derby in Coors Field this year, we expect to see a bunch of long balls.
Oddsmakers have installed Shohei Ohtani as the favorite at +240, but Joey Gallo (+420), Pete Alonso (+450), and Matt Olson (+600) are all expected to be in the mix as well. Let’s take a look at the odds for the Home Run Derby and three of our prop bets
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MLB Home Run Derby Odds
Ohtani leads the way at +240, but intriguing players like Joey Gallo (+$20) and 2019 champ Pete Alonso (+450) are among those with the best odds. The full slate from FanDuel Sportsbook:
Shohei Ohtani +240
Joey Gallo +420
Pete Alonso +450
Matt Olson +600
Juan Soto +800
Trevor Story +800
Salvador Perez +1500
Trey Mancini +1500
MLB Home Run Derby Player Prop Picks
Under 519.5 Feet Longest HR (-105, FanDuel)
There are a lot of factors at play in this year’s Home Run Derby. The thin air at Coors Field means that the ball is going to be jumping off the bat. It’s also worth noting that MLB has already said that they won’t be using a Humidor on the baseballs. Based on that, taking the over on the longest home run would feel like an easy choice, right?
There have only been four home runs of at least 500 feet in the Home Run Derby in the Statcast era. Aaron Judge has all four of them. In fact, during the Statcast era, Judge and his Yankees teammate Giancarlo Stanton account for 10 of the 11 longest Home Run Derby diners. As far as we know, neither player is taking part in this year’s festivities.
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Trevor Story to Beat Joey Gallo (+140, BetMGM)
Joey Gallo is one of the favorites to win the whole thing, but don’t be surprised if he gets bounced in the first round. Trevor Story is playing on his home field and can absolutely rake. Although Story only has 11 home runs this season, he averaged over 30 home runs per season over his first three years in MLB. With the home crowd behind him, Story might go on an improbable run against some of the best sluggers in baseball.
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Shohei Ohtani to Hit Longest HR (+400, DraftKings)
How could we talk about Home Run Derby props without taking Shohei Ohtani? The hybrid hitter-pitcher is having an unreal season thus far. He has already broken the record for most home runs in a season by a Japanese MLBer and more than a few of those home runs have been absolute moonshots.
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Ohtani has that sweet lefty stroke that could put a ball deep into the Colorado night. At +400 odds, this is one of the better Ohtani bets on the board. Joey Gallo and Pete Alonso might give Ohtani a run for his money, but we still like the Japanese slugger here.