hawks sixers prop pick
Jun 8, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) dribbles the ball against Philadelphia 76ers guard Seth Curry (31) during the first quarter in game two of the second round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Sixers and Hawks will clash in a pivotal Game 3 matchup tonight at State Farm Arena down in Atlanta and the betting action on this one figures to be heavy.

While oddsmakers have the Sixers and Hawks as a virtual toss up, we’ve identified a player prop pick at long odds that provides a substantial payout.

Back Trae Young. It’s that simple.

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Sixers vs. Hawks Game 3 Prop Pick

Many believe now that the Sixers have evened the series that they will simply take control beginning tonight in Atlanta.

Not so fast. There are plenty of trends that suggest Atlanta may be the right side, including the fact that the public is all over Philly in this one. If Atlanta is to get the job done, Young will likely be in the middle of things, so pairing a big game with a Hawks win provides us with a big payout.

That’s why we’re taking a look at Young Over 29.5 Points and Atlanta to win with a +250 payout at FOX Bet.

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Back Trae Young

Based on what we have witnessed so far in this series, combined with what we know about these teams from the long season to this point, it is hard to imagine Atlanta winning this game without Trae Young having 30 points.

In Game 1, Young was unstoppable, scoring 35 of the team’s 128 points in the victory. In Game 2, the Hawks mustered just 102 points in the loss, with Young managing just 21 of his own. He scored 30 or more three times in five games in the First Round matchup with New York, despite the series being low-scoring throughout.

In the regular season, Young scored at least 30 points in 17 of the team’s 41 wins, a solid 41.5% for a prop that here pays us 5:2. He only played in two of the Hawks’ regular season games against the Sixers, specifically. He tallied 32 points in just 28 minutes in the blowout 126-104 loss in late April and put up 26 points in only 25 minutes in the easy 112-94 home victory back in January. Young has played 39 and 38 minutes, respectively, in the first two games of this series, so you can rest assured he won’t be anywhere near those minute totals from the regular season. If he could post those numbers in that short a period of court time in those games, imagine what he will do tonight in 10-15 more minutes of game action.

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Getting to the Line

What also inspires confidence in Young’s ability to get to 30 points in a win is the fact that he has been getting to the foul line at a handsome rate. He has earned nine free throw attempts in each game in this series, 15 in the final game of the Knicks series, and had 10 more in the last regular season meeting with Philadelphia. He’s made 32 of his 34 free throws against the 76ers this season, good for a cool 94.1%. If he gets 10 or so freebies tonight, he really only needs 20 or so points from the field, which should be a walk in the park against a Sixers’ team which has struggled all season long against versatile guards.

Here are a couple interesting stats about Young which should help increase your comfort with this wager. He averages 27.9 points per game in Hawks’ wins versus just 21.9 points per game in the team’s losses. Friday is interestingly the day on which he has his highest scoring average at 27.7 points per game. He averages 29 points per game against the Sixers this season, which is the ninth most of any opponent he has faced and the fourth most against any team he faced at least three times.

Sixers vs. Hawks Betting Trends

As for Atlanta winning the game, consider the following:

The Hawks are 25-13 ATS at home this season and 11-7 ATS at home following a loss.

The Sixers are just 6-20 over their last 26 games against teams with better than .600 home win percentages. Meanwhile, they’re just 2-5 ATS over their last seven games following a double-digit win.

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Bob Wankel is a credentialed Phillies writer for Crossing Broad. He is also Vice President of Sports Betting Content at XL Media and co-hosts Crossed Up: A Phillies Podcast. A South Jersey resident and graduate of Monmouth University, his past work includes 12+ years in education and six seasons as a freelancer at NFL Films. On Twitter: @Bob_Wankel E-mail: bob.w@xlmedia.com