In an effort reminiscent of his heroics in the play-in game victory over the Washington Wizards, Jayson Tatum single-handedly kept the Boston Celtics from the brink of elimination with yet another 50-point performance in a come-from-behind Game 3 win over the Brooklyn Nets at the Garden. Now, Boston takes its home court again with hopes of evening the series at two games apiece in Game 4.
Let’s take a closer look at the best wagering markets with our Nets vs. Celtics Game 4 betting pick, complete with the best odds, prop predictions, and analysis.
Brooklyn jumped out to a 19-4 lead within the first four minutes of play, but Boston fought back to take the lead at the end of the first quarter and only trailed once the rest of the game. Will Brooklyn’s mediocre play away from home this season continue to haunt them or will they bounce back to take a commanding 3-1 series lead back home?
Each of the last two games in this series have gone over a total that remains in the high 220s tonight. Will Game 4 bring more offensive fireworks or will we see a return to the Game 1 form that produced just 197 total points?
We have isolated a couple value-laden wagers for bettors to consider in this game, which we will dive into in our Celtics-Nets betting preview that includes odds, boosts, and analysis to accompany the picks.
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Nets vs. Celtics Game 4 Odds
Here are the current odds for Nets vs. Celtics at DraftKings Sportsbook:
|Clippers||-3 (-112)||-143||O 216.5 (-112)|
|Mavericks||+3 (-109)||+123||U 216.5 (-109)|
Nets vs. Celtics Betting Pick
Boston Celtics Under 107.5 Total Points (FanDuel Sportsbook +144)
Jayson Tatum may have bailed the Celtics out in Game 3, but he also may have sealed their doom for Game 4, if history is any indicator. In six games after Tatum scored more than 35 points this season, the Celtics mustered 107, 105, 96, 104, 119, and 93 points. That’s five of six under this prop’s number, good for an average of just 104 points per game in those spots.
Further, Boston, which dropped 125 on the Nets in Game 3, have not been a successful team following a huge offensive performance like that. After posting 125 or more points in a win this season, the Celtics have come back to score 110 or more in the following game just twice in eight tries. Even if you expand that premise to games after scoring 120 or more points in regulation, Boston topped 111 points just five times in seventeen tries.
An Important Number
Boston struggled to score in their losses in general this season, a byproduct of a team that lacks scoring depth and relies so heavily on three guys, at least one of which is out tonight. The Celtics failed to top 112 points in 31 of their 38 losses this season, in fact.
Boston also failed to reach 110 points in three of their four games as home dogs of three points or greater since Christmas, averaging just 104 points per game in those outings.
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Brooklyn is obviously a team that has allowed a comparatively high number of points per game this season due to their tremendous offensive numbers. Yet, despite allowing 114.1 ppg on the year, they had held Boston to less than 110 points in each of the five meetings this season prior to Game 3. The Celtics averaged just 101.8 points per game in those contests, meaning they still are only averaging less than 106 points per game against Brooklyn on the season even with their Game 3 anomaly.
Since February 9, the Nets have allowed just over 109 points per game in regulation following the 11 losses in which they conceded 114 or more points. They allowed less than this prop’s allowance in five of those subsequent games.
With Jaylen Brown out, Kemba Walker dinged up and completely ineffective in Game 3, and Tatum off a 40 minute effort as the only scoring threat, it seems hard to believe Boston can find enough ways to score to top this number against the league’s seventh best field goal percentage defense, which should be locked in after the loss.
Nets vs. Celtics Game 4 Prediction
It’s often undesirable to lay a bunch of points on the road in any sport. However, the NBA Playoffs this season have rewarded such bettors. Road favorites are 6-1 ATS thus far this postseason, with Brooklyn suffering the only loss. Favorites in general are 15-8 ATS, as a matter of fact, making us feel a bit more comfortable laying this sizable chunk with the road team.
Brooklyn had been dominating the recent head-to-head with Boston before the Game 3 setback. They had won five straight and seven of the last eight before that, with five of the last six wins coming by nine or more points. In fact, all ten of the last head-to-head matchups between these two were decided by five or more points, within a basket of a cover here. Also, following the only other loss the Nets suffered to Boston in the last nine meetings, they bounced back to win the next head-to-head by 28 points.
Nets vs. Celtics Betting Trends
Boston has not responded well this season after big home wins. They are just 1-9 ATS this season in the ten games following a home SU and ATS win where they scored 119 or more points. Actually, the truth is, the Celtics have not played good basketball after wins much at all this season. They were just 17-20 straight up and 14-22-1 against the spread after a win, including a 6-12-1 ATS mark here at home after a victory. More recently, Boston has produced a 1-5 ATS record after its last six ATS wins and a 1-6 ATS mark after its last seven SU wins.
The Celtics also struggled on one day of rest, mustering just a 19-27-1 ATS mark, including ATS losses in each of their last eight games following one day off, and allowing 112.6 points per game, their most of any rest period. It won’t help their case that Brooklyn was a sparkling 30-13 straight up on one day of rest, averaging over 121 points per game, far and away the team’s best production of any rest duration.
Brooklyn has now covered 13 of its last 16 as a favorite, including four of the last five laying points on the road (and you all know what that one loss was). Meanwhile, the Celtics have covered just one of their last five home games and just two of their last seven games as a dog.
If you subscribe to our premise that Boston is going to struggle to score today, this should be a no-brainer. Boston has not won AND topped 107 points in any game this season after Tatum goes for more than 35 prior. In fact, they lost each of the last three of those instances by double digits.
We mentioned prior how it would take the Nets a bit to adjust to Jeff Green’s absence and how Joe Harris was due to come back to Earth after his tremendous Game 2. Both of those things happened in Game 3, but the Nets now will have had the opportunity to game plan and adjust against a team who does not play well with just a single day off.
Expect Brooklyn’s Big 3 to overwhelm a Boston team bereft of scorers and win this one handily, reminding the public why it thought this series was destined for a sweep after Game 2.
Our Pick: Brooklyn -7.5
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