The Brooklyn Nets overcame an expectedly slow first half before storming back to win Game 1 against the Boston Celtics on Saturday. The team’s trio of stars eventually found a rhythm in just their ninth game together, scoring 82 of the team’s 104 points in the win. An underrated Brooklyn defense that ranks seventh in the NBA in field goal percentage against also stifled Boston star, Jayson Tatum, holding him to just 22 points after his 50 point outburst in the play-in game prior.
Let’s take a closer look at the best wagering markets with our Celtics vs. Nets Game 2 betting pick, complete with the best odds, prop predictions, and analysis.
Nets vs. Celtics Game 2 Pick
Boston will look to change its approach, as even a six point halftime lead was not enough in Game 1. They shot just 36.9% from the field in the game and mustered just 40 second half points in the loss. Reinventing themselves on the fly will be difficult, especially with Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant seeming to jell quicker than many imagined.
We believe the Brooklyn stars’ quick learning curve, coupled with the necessitated paradigm shift for Boston, opens up some tremendous wagering options for bettors tonight.
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Celtics vs. Nets Game 2 Odds
Here are the current odds for Celtics vs. Nets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
|Clippers||-3 (-112)||-143||O 216.5 (-112)|
|Mavericks||+3 (-109)||+123||U 216.5 (-109)|
Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
Brooklyn Nets to Win and Each Team to Score Over 119.5 Points (FOXBET +510)
For the more conservative bettor, there are simpler wagers embedded within this one. Both teams’ individual point totals (BKN 118.5, Bos 109.5) are lower than the 119.5 set here, for starters. But, we like the value of uniting these three parts for such a quality return.
Starting with the Nets moneyline portion of the wager, we believe Boston’s best shot to steal a game on the road in this series was in Game 1. Sure enough, they came out and took advantage of a Brooklyn starting group that had not started a game together all season, jumping out to a six point halftime lead. However, the Nets stars’ weathered the new home crowd noise and the growing pains of a new group, eventually pulling away for an 11 point win.
Boston has no discernible advantage now. They are still on the road. They are still without Jaylen Brown, one of their own stars. They are still facing a more talented team. And now, they lack the element of surprise, their opponents have had time to get used to each other and have already overcome adversity, and the crowd noise is likely to work for the Nets this time. It’s just hard to imagine that the Celtics can do enough to win this one, even with a far superior shooting evening, which we do expect from them.
That segues nicely into the two team total parts of this wager. Boston clearly has the most work to do as the large road dog who managed just 93 points in Game 1. However, Coach Brad Stevens flat out said that their approach and resultant points in that game were just not going to get it done, so we should expect a drastic switch in play for the Celtics after two days off to prepare and adjust.
Due for a Rebound
A full regular season sample space tells us that Boston is highly unlikely to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 1. They shot nearly ten percentage points lower from the field than their season average, missing their regular season scoring average by over 18 points.
While the Celtics failed to reach the 119 points we need from them tonight in any of the three regular season head-to-head matchups this year, they did top that number three of the four times the two played last season, with all four games going over the total. Boston also averages its best offensive output this season on two days of rest at 114.9 points per game.
Even though Brooklyn is the team we expect to set the high-scoring pace to this one, averaging the second most points in the league this season (118.6 ppg), Boston still chipped in 25 regular season games where they topped 119 points. In fact, they bounced back after scoring less than 100 points to score 118 or more three times in their last eight games. Incidentally, Brooklyn has allowed opponents to score 119 or more 24 times this season.
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Nets Will Trust Offense
Obviously, if Boston tops 118.5 and Brooklyn wins, then, obviously, they are satisfying their over 118.5 portion of this wager, as well. But, from the sense of them potentially playing looser now that they overcame the tough start and still won, they might drag Boston along with them in a higher-scoring game, trusting that they can just make more baskets than them in the long term, like in Game 1. With that in mind, it’s worth mentioning that Brooklyn played a staggering 25 games during the regular season that saw both teams score at least 115 points, with 14 of those games seeing both teams reach the 119 needed for this prop.
It’s encouraging that both teams attempted less shots than their season average, as a rise to normal or above tonight will naturally infuse points into this one. Both teams also got to the free throw line more than their season averages in that first game, meaning we could again see lots of free points with the clock stopped tonight.
Celtics vs. Nets Betting Prediction
We just made a case above for each team reaching 119 or more total points, which obviously would send this game over the posted total. However, even if that more reachy of a prop bet does not hit, we believe this game should sail over the total regardless.
Brooklyn averages nearly 119 points per game themselves this season and topped 120 in three of the last five head-to-head meetings with Boston leading up to this series. Boston allowed 119 or more just 20 times this season, but 12 of those were to teams currently in the Playoffs, two of which were this Nets team.
The last nine times the Nets scored 105 points or fewer this season, they bounced back in six of their next games to reach at least 119 points, going over the posted total in seven of those next nine games.
These two teams played just six of their 21 combined day games over the total this season (28.6%), but saw 71 of their 125 total night games sail over the mark (56.8%). Six of Boston’s eight games as a dog of five or more points also went over the number.
Betting Trends to Know
The Celtics also tend to play over the total after a loss, seeing 22 of 36 games sail over in that role (61.1%). That pairs like champagne and oysters with the fact that Brooklyn has played 20 of 34 games over after an opponent’s loss (58.8%). The two trend toward high-scoring games against better competition, as well, playing 34 of their combined 60 games against above .500 foes over the posted total (56.7%).
Celtics vs. Nets Prediction
Boston has now played seven of its last nine over after an ATS loss and six of its last eight over after a SU loss. When that SU loss came by double digits, like Game 1, the Celtics have played 35 of their last 51 subsequent games over the number (68.6%).
Look for Brooklyn, who we expect to create a wide open feel to this one, to move to eight of their last 11 over the total as home favorites.
Our Pick: Bos/BKN Over 227 (FanDuel -110)
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