The Mets are projected to win around 95 games and capture the National League East division crown.
On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2021 season, and New York Mets fans have plenty to be excited about.
According to the PECOTA standings, the Mets have a whopping 77.4% chance of winning the NL East and are projected to win 95.5 games. Before we get into these numbers, let’s look at what PECOTA is.
PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. According to the Baseball Prospectus website, PECOTA uses players’ past performances to project how they’ll most likely do in the following season, and how that affects their respective teams.
After a great offseason, the Mets are the clear favorites to win the NL East. The Atlanta Braves coming in at fourth might be a surprise, and might also come to the relief of Mets fans.
However, PECOTA has underrated the Braves in recent years, and Atlanta has always come out on top. That’s something worth taking into account.
PECOTA provides a simulated win percentage graph by team, and the Mets are projected to finish with anywhere between a 0.45 and just over 0.70 win percentage.
With a 59 DRA-, Jacob deGrom is projected to lead all MLB pitchers in that category.
Under new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets have added several players that are clearly expected to be quite impactful in 2021.
Carlos Carrasco, Francisco Lindor, Aaron Loup, Joey Lucchesi, Trevor May, and James McCann are all projected to contribute enough to New York’s performance and help them run away with the division.
Let’s see just how accurate PECOTA’s 2021 projections will prove to be for the Mets.