The Jets‘ original odds for their Week 7 battle with the division-rival Buffalo Bills weren’t looking all too hot. And now, they’re even larger underdogs as of Thursday.
The Jets opened up as 10.5-point underdogs, but via DraftKings Sportsbook, that spread has widened to a whopping 12.5 points. This comes in spite of the fact that a number of injured Jets players, including quarterback Sam Darnold, have returned to practice.
Bet the Jets +12.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook here.
It’s still unclear if Darnold will return to the game field this Sunday after suffering a shoulder injury in the Week 4 loss to the Broncos. After the health-related setback occurred, Darnold missed the Week 5 and 6 defeats at the hands of the Cardinals and Dolphins, respectively. Thus, veteran Joe Flacco has started in his absence.
It was indeed reported by SNY’s Ralph Vacchiano that Darnold would be practicing on Wednesday but in a limited state. Thus, we still don’t have a definitive answer on whether he’ll be starting against the Bills on Sunday, and head coach Adam Gase didn’t reveal much when speaking to the media either.
Could Sam Darnold play Sunday?
Said Adam Gase: “Right now, all options are available. We’ll have him on a pitch count. I think really the biggest thing will be: How’s he going to feel tomorrow? If there’s anything that lingers when he’s throwing, that’s kind of his red flag.”
— Ralph Vacchiano (@RVacchianoSNY) October 21, 2020
Why Did the Bills-Jets Spread Move?
Much of the line movement likely has to do with where the bets are going. Across all reporting markets, 66% of the bets placed on the spread are backing the Bills in this matchup.
The Jets are not just one of the worst teams in the NFL, but additionally one of only two teams in the league to have yet to cover the spread this year — they and the Cowboys are both 0-6 in those regards.
This is even worse when you consider how winless home underdogs (who were yet to cover the spread at the time) have performed in 2020, having gone 9-9-1 against the spread thus far (47.4% win rate). The Jets are also one of just two home underdogs since 2003 to start off 0-6 both straight up and against the spread, the other being the 2011 Rams, who defeated the 13.5-point favored Saints outright in their seventh game.
Going off of the above information, I’d say it’s pretty understandable to stay away from the Jets spread in this one.
Bills-Jets Betting Total Remains the Same
The total was originally 45.0 and has stuck as of Thursday. Going with the under might be the move here, considering how putrid the Jets offense has been up to this point. The Jets are dead last in the league in total points per game with an average of 12.5, while the Bills are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to that category (26.0 points per game).
If the over is going to hit, the Bills may need to score around 30-35 points at least, and judging by their most recent performances (17 points against the Chiefs and 16 points against the Titans), I just don’t see that occurring.
Moneyline Shifts in Favor of the Jets
The Bills were initially -620 on the moneyline in comparison to the Jets’ +460. But now, it’s shifted in favor of the Jets — Buffalo is -560 while the Jets are +410.
And despite the risk ($560 bet to earn a profit of $100), I would still take the Bills moneyline this week for an easy cash grab. The Jets are playing that horrific, and it would be a major stretch to think they’ll oust their division rivals Sunday afternoon.
Bettors Taking Buffalo Spread, Under
Across reporting markets, 34% of the spread bets are in favor of the Jets in comparison to 66% for the Bills, while 53% of the money is being placed on the Jets spread.
As far as the total is concerned, the majority of bettors agree with me — 63% of bets are currently placed on the under along with 53% of the money.