2018 ALDS Preview: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Following their big wild-card game win, the New York Yankees face the team with the most regular season wins, Boston Red Sox, in the ALDS. 

The one game playoff is over and now, the New York Yankees move to their next challenge in chasing their 28th championship, the Boston Red Sox.

Boston is coming off a historic season that saw them take the best record in baseball at 108-54 and first place in the AL East. Led by rookie manager Alex Cora, the Red Sox are looking to bring back their first championship since the 2013 season.

Fellow rookie manager Aaron Boone and the New York Yankees are fresh off the heels of a 7-2 wild-card win over the Oakland Athletics. It was a night that saw Luis Severino dominate, Aaron Judge prove that he can be a playoff hero, and the Yankees not waisting a 100-62 season. The Bombers look to bring home their first championship since 2009.

The ALDS matchup between the two rivals will be the first time that the Yankees and Red Sox have squared off in the playoffs since the ALCS back in the 2004 season. Aaron Boone and the Yankees may have had a big moment that Yankee fans remember the year before but, it was the Red Sox who came out victorious this time around, eventually lifting their first championship since 1918.

Now all of the history between the two foes are in the past as the likes of Judge, Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez look to rewrite the history books.

Both teams have similar strengths, and while both are some of the games best, they do have some weaknesses. Will those weaknesses cost them as this series unfolds? Who will come out victorious in the playoff matchup that all of baseball has longed for over 14 years?

ESNY has everything you need to know as both teams get ready to battle it out.

Series Schedule

Since Boston finished the year with the best record in all of baseball, they will have home-field advantage in every series that they face. With the Yankees being a wild-card team, they will begin their series on the road, despite their 100 wins.

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Who Can Power Their Way To The ALCS?

It is no secret, both the Yankees and Red Sox have two of the best lineups in all of baseball. Boston led the league in runs this season with 876, but the Yankees were right behind them at 851. This series has offense written all over it.

1. Mookie Betts
2. Andrew Benintendi
3. J.D. Martinez
4. Xander Bogaerts
5. Steve Pearce
6. Rafael Devers
7. Eduardo Nunez
8. Ian Kinsler
9. Christian Vasquez

For Boston, it all starts with their big three: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez. The three players combined to hit 98 home runs, drive in 313 runs, and score 312 times. But, what makes them so dangerous is they are not stacked up back-to-back. If you get through Mookie Betts leading off, you won’t face Martinez until the number three hole, and if you get through Martinez, you have Bogaerts right after him.

Having three players of that level is great, but as Yankee fans know, it does not stop there. Andrew Benintendi drove in 87 runs this year while going deep 16 times. Rafael Devers has been a pain in the Yankees side, and despite his struggles defensively, hit 21 home runs in 2018.

The only weak spot in this Red Sox lineup comes at the catcher position, a platoon between Sandy Leon, Christian Vasquez, and the occasional start from Blake Swihart. Those three combined to hit just 11 home runs, and are primarily in there for their defense.

Boston does not rely on the home run as the main source of their offense. Despite finishing ninth in all of baseball with 208 home runs, they are able to put the ball in play leading the league with a .268 team batting average, and a .289 average with runners in scoring position.

Projected Yankees Game 1 Lineup

1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Aaron Judge
3. Aaron Hicks
4. Giancarlo Stanton
5. Luke Voit
6. Didi Gregorius
7. Miguel Andujar
8. Gary Sanchez
9. Gleyber Torres

For the Yankees, everyone knows that their lineup is reliant on the home run ball. They finished 2018 with an MLB record 267 long balls and hit two more during the 2018 AL Wild Card Game. New York has six players that finished the season over the 20 home run mark, while 12 players finished the year with 10 or more home runs.

The difference between the Yankees and Red Sox lineup is that the Yankees do not really have a break in their order. Every player is capable of hitting the ball out and hitting the ball far. The only concern Yankee fans should have is that power usually does not play well during the postseason.

If the Bronx Bombers do not hit a ball out of the park they either strikeout 22.7 percent of the time (fifth in the AL) or walk at a 10 percent clip (best in the AL). The problem is, once New York gets baserunners on they need to hit the home run, or else the will not score. New York has a .253 batting average with runners in scoring position, 21 points behind the team in front of them (Atlanta).

How the Yankees handle the likes of Chris Sale will also go a long way into whether or not they advance. Yankee hitters have just a .204 batting average against Sale this year in 54 at-bats. They’ve scored just one run.

Advantage: Red Sox

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Which Pitching Staff Cracks Under The Pressure First?

Starting pitching is so important when it comes to the playoffs. If your starter is out there putting up zeros, they can hide some offensive struggles.

Both the Red Sox and Yankees have decent starting pitching that showcases some of the games brightest stars. As a team, the Red Sox starting rotation pitched to a 3.77 ERA, the eighth lowest in all of baseball, and fourth lowest in the American League. The Yankees, on the other hand, posted a 4.05 ERA the 14th lowest in the majors, and fifth lowest in the American League.

Led by Chris Sale and David Price, Boston has one of the best one-two punches in all of baseball. Sale finished the year 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA, but only appeared in 27 games. He only appeared in one game in the month of August battling shoulder inflammation. Since returning Sept. 11, he allowed just five runs in 12 innings.

It is no secret that Sale has the Yankees number this year, he’s only given up one run in 13 innings. That is the bad news if you are a Yankees fan. The good news is that David Price is expected to start Game 2, and, the Yankees have dominated Price this season scoring 18 runs serving up nine home runs in four starts.

For the Yankees, their rotation depth is much stronger outside of the Red Sox’s one-two punch. Led by Luis Severino, New York is looking to carry over the magic their rotation provided during the 2017 postseason.

J.A. Happ will get the ball in Game 1 for New York. As Red Sox fans know, Happ has had the Sox’s number this season allowing 11 runs, holding Boston hitters to a .193 batting average. He is the perfect match for the Yankees to throw out there against Sale, as Happ has the ability to match Sale inning for inning.

After Happ, New York will go with Masahiro Tanaka who finished the second half with a 2.85 ERA and has a career 1.44 postseason ERA. After Tanaka, Aaron Boone can get creative. He can go with the veteran CC Sabathia, or back Luis Severino who will be on normal rest. Regardless of who Boone chooses, the Yankees should be in great shape when it comes to their starting rotation.

Advantage: Yankees

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The Bullpen Game

It is fair to say that the bullpen is really the one area where the Boston Red Sox have flaws. Despite having the ninth best bullpen ERA, 3.74, nothing is automatic.

Closing games out for Boston is one of the games best closers in Craig Kimbrel who had another solid season with a 2.74 ERA converting 42 out of 47 save opportunities. Outside of Kimbrel, closing games out is a daunting task for Red Sox relievers who have blown 20 saves this season, ranking 15th in all of baseball.

Other than Kimbrel, the Red Sox bullpen features the likes of Joe Kelly, Health Hembree, Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes, and Steven Wright who can be their x-factor against New York. Of the options, Alex Cora has, expect him to go to Wright when Boston is trying to fight their way back in a game. He did so in a Sept. 20 game when the Yankees just took the lead. Wright shut the Yankees lineup down, allowing for Boston to win that game 11-6.

For the New York, they have one the games best bullpens finishing the season with the fourth best ERA at 3.38. Where the Yankees bullpen can get you is with their powerful arms and strikeout capability. Their 753 strikeouts in the regular season were second to the Tampa Bay Rays but, they led the majors with an 11.4 K/9 ratio.

What makes the Bombers’ bullpen so dangerous is that they can throw four legitimate closers at you, and they can give you length. Dellin Betances gave New York two shutout innings in the wild-card game, getting Luis Severino out of trouble in the fifth. David Robertson is still one of the games best relievers despite his age, and Chad Green has established himself as one of the top arms in the league. Once you get through them, you still have to face former all-star Zach Britton and the dangerous Aroldis Chapman.

Boston cannot afford for this series to turn into a bullpen game. If it does, they do not have the manpower to make it through.

Advantage: Yankees.

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Who Moves On To The ALCS?

Boston has all of the pressure on them when it comes to moving on. They struggled in the ALDS a year ago, falling to the Astros in four games. Now they come in with the best record in baseball, a feat that would be forgotten if they did not get out of the first round.

For the Yankees, they once again find themselves chasing the Red Sox as the underdogs. They were the underdogs all throughout the postseason a year ago, and it worked to their advantage doing the impossible, winning a series where they were down 2-0. New York looks to embrace that role once again in what should be a fun matchup for both sides.

ESNY Staff Predictions

Members of the ESNY Yankees staff give you their predictions on how this series will unfold.

Making predictions are:

• Dom Renna – Lead Editor/Staff Writer
• Alison Case – Managing Editor/Yankees boss
• Danny Small – Editor in Chief/Knicks Boss
• Josh Benjamin – Senior Writer
• Aaron Case – Contributor
• Sean Blair – Contributor
• James Kelly – Contributor

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