The kings of October are just days away from the start of their journey. Here’s a sneak peak and how the 2015 MLB Postseason will shake out.
By Greg Cambareri
This season, similar to every season, has again produced its fair share of surprises. The odds on World Series favorite Washington Nationals do not find themselves playing in the postseason as one of the more disappointing teams in recent memory. Last season’s wins leaders, the Angels, also came up short. From worst to first went the Texas Rangers; the upstart Mets and Cubs proved to be for real; and the Toronto Blue Jays ended a 22-year postseason drought. The Houston Astros also ended a 10 year playoff absence of their own (not bad for a team that lost 111 games just two years ago).
Of course, plenty of the October regulars found their way back into the postseason, as the Cardinals, Dodgers, Pirates, and Yankees all found their way. The Royals showed 2014 was no fluke and made it back for the second season in a row.
The 2015 MLB playoffs feature a landscape that would have been nearly impossible to predict six months ago. However, this is why we watch. This is what gives every team hope when the calendar turns to Spring.
Now, let’s find out who will be left standing alone as champions.
AL Wild Card
The Houston Astros will travel east to take on the New York Yankees for the right to the AL Wild Card. This has the makings of a classic David and Goliath matchup (just look at the payroll of these two teams). Houston is a surprise contender, finishing in the bottom half of the division for the past six seasons.
While many might not have expected this Astros to be contenders this soon, don’t tell this Houston team they can’t compete. They bashed 230 home runs, good for second in all of baseball. Their starting pitcher for Tuesday night’s game? Mr. Dallas Keuchel, who could very easily win the AL Cy Young this season. However, he’ll pitch on just three days rest. It’s hard to blame the Astros for throwing their best pitcher in a winner take all game, though.
The Yankees will counter with their ace, Masahiro Tanaka. He has pitched well this season, to the tune of a 3.51 era. However, we must note that his 25 homers allowed in 24 starts is a formula that could spell trouble, facing a powerful Astros lineup.
The Yankees have survived numerous injuries this season and found success with a lockdown bullpen combination of set up man Dellin Betances and closer Andrew Miller. The Yankees sport a thunderous lineup of their own, belting 212 home runs collectively.
This game should be close considering the similarities of both teams – ace pitchers and home run happy lineups. However, the Yankees have several advantages. First, the Yankees are playing at home. Though anything can happen in a one game playoff, the Astros worrying 33-48 road record is a major concern. Second, Tanaka will be pitching on full rest, whereas his counterpart Keuchel will be pitching on just three days rest. How far Keuchel can go remains to be seen, which is a major concern. Houston will need its bats to give them an early lead, because the Yankees play seven inning games with Betances and Miller anchoring the bullpen.
Final Score: Yankees 4, Astros, 2
NL Wild Card
It’s an absolute shame someone has to lose this game. Both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs have had equally outstanding seasons. They possess the second and third best records not just in their division, but in all of baseball, at 98 and 97 wins for the former and the latter.
This game could very well come down to a battle of the bullpens, simply because the two starters do not give up runs. Period. This isn’t to take away from either teams’ lineup, who each possess several all star caliber players. However, the one constant about playoff baseball that seems to ring true every year: pitching wins championships.
We’ll start with Cubs ace Jake Arrieta. His 1.77 ERA ranks second in the NL, but it’s his 0.75 second half ERA that stands out. During the live ball era, that’s the lowest in history. He led the league with four complete games and three shutouts, capped by a no hitter in Los Angeles earlier this summer. Stats set aside, he’s been nearly untouchable and should give the Cubs confidence heading into what’s sure to be a hostile PNC Park.
Arrieta will be opposed by Pirates righty Gerrit Cole. The 25 year old Cole struck out over 200, held a 2.60 ERA and made his first all star team. Like Arrieta, stats don’t tell the story with Cole. On the mound, he’s a bulldog. He threw over 200 innings this year, so he should have no problem matching Arrieta late in the game. His high 90s fastball, sharp secondary pitches, and 6’4 frame make him an intimidating figure. He’s an ace in every sense of the word, and a good reason why we should see very few runs this game.
This could be one of the best Wild Card games we ever see, and a good reason why we may see three game sets down the road, instead of just one. For now, we’ll live with an aces duel in Pittsburgh.
The lineups should get more love because they both have depth and talent. Pirates stars Andrew Mccutchen and Starling Marte pack a dynamic speed/power punch in the middle of the lineup. Cubs sluggers Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant form one of the best young lefty/righty duos in the game. The list goes one with the talent both these clubs possess, but it will be all about the aces Wednesday night. The X-factor, however, will be the Pirates bullpen, whose major league leading 2.67 ERA was best in the bigs. If this game goes to extras, count on the Bucs’ bullpen to get it done.
The Pirates are in the postseason for the third straight season. They’re no longer satisfied with just getting there. The Cubs are making their first appearance in what surely will be many more to come in the near future. However, this Pittsburgh team seems like a team of destiny.
Final Score: Pirates 2, Cubs 1
ALDS: Texas vs. Toronto
Raise your hand if you had the Rangers and Blue Jays in the ALDS when spring training began? No one? Well, no hard feelings, as this is one of the surprise match-ups of the postseason.
It’s easy to say that both these fine clubs drastically changed their fortunes at the trade deadline. Texas’ addition of Cole Hamels gave them the true No. 1 they lacked in their rotation after Yu Dravish underwent Tommy John surgery in March. Toronto’s roster overhaul included landed them ace lefty David Price, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, outfielder Ben Revere, and several pieces to the bullpen.
Toronto will have playoff baseball in the Rogers Centre for the first time since some guy named Joe Carter homered to win the 1993 World Series. Before we get to the series prediction, we can predict it’s going to get loud in Canada. The atmosphere is sure to give the Blue Jays a home field advantage.
When most people think of Toronto, they think of that long, unforgiving lineup which lead the majors with 232 homers. Josh Donaldson could be your American League MVP. Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and the return of Tulowitzki make this the most intimidating lineup in the game.
While offense can help punch your playoff tickets, it’s pitching that carries a team towards the title, and this Blue Jay rotation beyond David Price does not get enough credit. Young gun Marcus Stroman, who many believed wouldn’t play this season due to a knee injury suffered in March, returned to the rotation in September to post a 1.67 ERA in four starts. The seemingly forgotten R.A. Dickey knuckleballed his way to a sub-4 ERA in over 200 innings. Marco Estrada also chipped in 181 innings of 3.13 ERA ball. As good as the Jays lineup is, their underrated rotation gives them another dimension.
In one season the Rangers went from worst to first. Their blockbuster acquisition of Cole Hamels gives them an ace to counter Price. Hamels does not get enough credit as a big game pitcher, evidenced by his complete game victory on the season’s final day to wrap up the division (his 2008 World Series MVP isn’t too shabby, either). However, the Texas rotation does not matchup well with Toronto’s after Hamels. Yovani Gallardo has been solid, but there’s questions marks after that. Derek Holland has the talent to be a front of the rotation guy, but his 4.91 ERA suggests otherwise. If this series goes more than three, there’s a good chance it’s Hamels on short rest to carry Texas as far as he can take them.
The Texas lineup is no joke. While not as fierce as Toronto’s, they still pack a powerful punch. Prince Fielder is a candidate for comeback player of the year, Adrian Beltre, Mitch Moreland, and Mike Napoli provide plenty of long ball ability, and Sin Soo Choo finally is playing like the player they thought they signed to a huge contract not too long ago.
Texas might be the feel good story of the year, but the Blue Jays have too much depth and talent not to advance.
Series Prediction: Blue Jays in 3
ALDS: New York vs. Kansas City
The Royals locked up home field advantage in the American League, and they’ll be happy to have it in their pitcher friendly confines. Their 51 home wins were third in the AL, and a reminder to opposing teams that the 2014 team was no fairy tale, but a collection of budding stars. With one postseason run under their belts, they’ll be looking for more against a battle tested Yankee club.
Kansas City is one of the most athletic teams in the game, measuring fourth in defensive efficiency. They don’t have a dominant rotation, but they make up for it with stellar defense, an improved lineup, and their vaunted bullpen. Kansas City is going to be favored to win this series (winning a league high 95 games helps), but they have their flaws.
Their deadline acquisition of Johnny Cueto was supposed to give them an anchor for their postseason staff. His 4.76 ERA in 13 starts is a cause for concern. All will be forgiven if he pitches well this fall, but he’s a question mark until he proves otherwise.
The Royals came within a game of the World Series a season ago in large part because of their bullpen. The trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland essentially shortened games to just six innings. Holland recently underwent Tommy John, so that trio is now a man short. There’s no question that Davis and Holland can each be given a more important role, but will they be overused late in games? Ryan Madson has been excellent in the middle innings, which may be the key to bridging the ‘pen together. No other club’s bullpen is more important to team success than Kansas City’s.
The Yankees will have their hands full with the Royals defense, late inning flamethrowers, and balanced lineup, but they won’t go quietly. The Yankee bullpen is also excellent, and is one of the few ‘pens that can match KC’s. The Yankees have slightly better starting pitching, so they should be able to make this difficult for the reigning AL champs. They’ll need Alex Rodriguez’s storybook season to continue, and post season folk hero Carlos Beltran to rekindle some more October magic.
The Yankees are going to give Kansas City a run for their money. However, young Royals like Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas all improved instead of having a hangover after some success. The Royals home field advantage will be key as this will come to the fifth and final game.
Series Prediction: Kansas City in 5
ALCS: Kansas City vs. Toronto
The two best records in the AL will meet for the rights to head to the World Series, and rightfully so. Think about the late inning power vs. power scenarios that could potentially unfold here – Josh Donaldson vs. Kelvin Herrera or maybe Jose Bautista vs. Wade Davis? There are numerous possibilities which make this series so intriguing.
As much as we would like to see many of those aforementioned match-ups, there may not be many to see. Toronto’s solid rotation combined with their deep lineup should be too much for Kansas City’s inconsistent starting pitching to give the Royals bullpen a chance to shorten games.However, there are several X-factors for Kansas City that could even this series. If Yordano Ventura finds himself, he becomes a top of the line starter that could silence the Blue Jay bats. His up and down season will have to pick a positive direction if his team is to succeed in the postseason. Johnny Cueto has no room for the disappointing second half he had. Edison Volquez will need to continue his success to keep his team in the game. The Kansas City starting rotation must be able to pitch deep into the game to leave the bullpen with a lead. They won’t have a chance to win unless they get length from their starters, it’s as simple as that. Toronto’s lineup is too good for inconsistent pitchers.
If there’s one advantage KC has, it’s that they’ve done it before. They know what it takes to get to the World Series vs. an opponent who has little postseason experience. If the Blue Jays need to have a game late in the series, they are going to turn to David Price on short rest, which could benefit KC, given Price’s less than impressive playoff track record.
This should be a fun series, considering the two best records from one league get to fight for the right to appear in the Fall Classic. Toronto is a deeper team, and it will show in the ALCS.
Series Prediction: Blue Jays in 6
NLDS: Pittsburgh vs. St. Louis
The two best records in all of baseball face off in only the NLDS? Well, this is how the game has unfolded up to this point. Regardless of record, these two divisional foes should produce a classic. St Louis, won the season series 10-9, which should give an indication of how evenly matched these clubs are.
Both teams feature strong staffs, solid bullpens, and balanced lineups. There just isn’t much that separates these two. Or is there?
The answer is health. The Cardinals lost ace Adam Wainwright in April to an achilles injury, but he’s returned to the bullpen to give his club another weapon. The Cardinals have great depth in their rotation with Michael Wacha, John Lackey, Lance Lynn, and Jaime Garcia, but Wainwright is the unquestioned leader of the staff, and has a solid postseason resume. His absence from the rotation could be telling. Additionally, losing breakout star Carlos Martinez to injury doesn’t help either. Most importantly, is catcher and team leader Yadier Molina, who is going to try to play with a thumb injury. Molina is the backbone and defacto captain. If he can’t play through the injury, it’s a different Cardinal team.
Pittsburgh on the other hand, is locked and loaded, ready to go. But before we write St. Louis off, consider this: they won 100 games without Wainwright for essentially the entire season, Matt Adams and Matt Holiday missed significant time, all while playing in the best division in baseball. The Cardinals have a plethora of postseason experience, and have overcome injuries all year long. Regardless of whose on the field they’ll be ready to challenge anyone.
After the smoke clears and the dust settles, Pittsburgh will have more soldiers left in this war. The Cardinals have overcome so much, but it’s tough to do one more time against a team of the Pirates quality. The Bucs will return to the NLCS for the first time since 1992.
Series Prediction: Pirates in 4
NLDS: Los Angeles vs. New York
DeGrom. Kershaw. Syndergaard. Greinke. Harvey. The 1990s and early 2000s were known as an era where offenses ruled. Well, times have certainly changed. The Mets and Dodgers feature the most pitching rich series this postseason has to offer.
The tale of the tape goes like this: One team’s payroll is almost three times the size of the other, yet their records are almost identical. One team hasn’t been in the postseason in nine years. The other is making their third straight appearance. Can you guess who is who?
Regardless of who you guessed, both the Dodgers and Mets have equally high pressures to win. The deep pocketed Dodgers will look to get back to the World Series for the first time since 1988. The Mets were expected to contend this season, but a division title was viewed as a long shot. They now find themselves opening what should be an epic pitching showcase in Chavez Ravine on Friday night.
Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet, whether he wins the Cy Young or not. He will have to overcome his past postseason demons in order to achieve the ultimate prize. He’s too talented not to right the ship, so the Mets should expect Kershaw on his A-game. He’ll be followed by Zach Greinke, whose sub-2 ERA is the lowest since Bob Gibson in 1968. The Dodgers one-two punch of Kershaw and Greinke is simply the best you’ll find.
As good as the Dodgers 1-2 is, the Mets can counter with all star Jacob Degrom and rookie of the year candidate Noah Syndergaard. Don’t expect many runs to be scored, at least not until the later innings. Both teams have shaky bullpens, so watching the pitch counts for the starters will be interesting. Matt Harvey will get the ball in game three (imagine the hype around that game), as the Dodgers are likely to counter with lefty Brett Anderson, who while not spectacular, turned in a solid season for L.A. These two clubs are quite similar, as this series should not be decided quickly.
Neither of these two teams have any real holes in the lineup. The Dodgers young stars Joc Perderson and Corey Seager will get their first taste of October. Veterans Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Either have a knack for the big hit. Could Chase Utley come back to haunt the Mets one last time? The anguish Mets fans would feel is unmeasurable, and would make for quite the twist in this script.
The Mets will have to figure out how they are to configure their lineup facing a lefty two or three times. Does Curtis Granderson get the start against Kershaw. Does this mean Michael Cuddyer sees more time? How do Juan Lagares and Michael Conforto factor into this equation? Terry Collins has options, but he must choose wisely to best the Dodgers lefties. It’s also worth noting that Yoenis Cespedes has revese splits against left-handed pitching. It won’t affect his playing time, but it may affect his performance.
David Wright has preached all year how important it is not to take the postseason granted, and you can expect the Mets to be ready for the moment. The Dodgers will have great pressure to succeed because of their payroll and past failures. The Mets are still a fairly young team and they’re going to have highs and lows. At the end of the day, Kershaw and Greinke will be a little too much for the Mets aces. This series will serve as the present vs. the future. It will give experience for the young Mets, who will carry great momentum heading into 2016.
Series Prediction: Dodgers in 5
NLCS: Los Angeles vs. Pittsburgh
The Dodgers payroll is almost four times as much as Pittsburgh’s. It might not matter.
With a trip to the World Series on the line, payrolls, records, stats, etc–they all go out the window. Two great teams are left to fight for a spot in the World Series.
You can be sure you’ll see plenty of pitchers going on short rest in this series. The Dodgers will ride Kershaw and Greinke as far as they can take them while the Pirates will use Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano as much as possible. It will also be interesting to see how AJ Burnett, in his final season, gives all he can in his final chapter.
These two teams have so much talent and you can expect several games in this series to come down to the late innings. How far will Don Mattingly let his horses pitch before he hands it over to his bullpen will be something to watch. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has the luxury of a dynamite bullpen that will excel at any point in the game. It will be these crucial late inning decisions that decide games.
Andrew McCutchen seemingly has the city of Pittsburgh on his back, so look for the best player in this series to be him. Is he an easy selection for series MVP? Sure, but it’s hard to argue with a player that exudes such talent, grace, and has clutch genes.
The Pirates will finally get to the promised land. But do they win it?
Series Prediction: Pittsburgh in 7
2015 World Series: Toronto vs. Pittsburgh
So it all comes down to this. McCutchen’s Pirates and Bautista’s Blue Jays. Gerrit Cole vs. David Price in game one. Two franchises who have struggled so much over the last twenty years square off for the rights to be called champion.
The thought of Price and Cole dueling against each other twice in a World Series is scintillating. Both teams have similar staffs: one ace a piece followed by two or three good, but not great pitchers. The match-ups among the pitchers are pretty even.
The Blue Jay lineup has an advantage over any club, but the speed/power threat that can be found in the Pirates lineup is sure to make some noise.
Both teams have good bullpens, which become much more magnified in the playoffs. So, who has the advantage in this series. Where does the breakthrough come from?
Pitching wins championships. We see it every year. The Pirates had the second lowest team ERA in the majors, and that pitching, which has truly been a team effort between starters and relievers, will be enough to calm the relentless Toronto lineup. Andrew McCutchen and company finally give Pittsburgh its first world title since 1979.