Will John Harbaugh take Giants to playoffs in Year 1? 2026 season win-loss predictions

We’ll start this with a multi-year prediction.

John Harbaugh’s tenure with the Giants will be similar to Jimmy Johnson’s time with the Dolphins — more successful than you remember, but still falling short of the lofty expectations it started with.

Johnson spent four years in Miami. He never had a losing record, he made the playoffs three times and he won two playoff games. And he left behind a roster that had four more winning seasons under Dave Wannstedt. But Johnson never won the AFC East and never came close to the Super Bowl.

Our guess is Harbaugh follows a similar trajectory. We don’t think he will avoid a losing season (spoiler alert), but he will get the Giants back to winning ways and sustain them in a way Ben McAdoo and Brian Daboll could not. That said — we don’t see this show ever rolling down the Canyon of Heroes. Harbaugh is a good coach who will get into the Hall of Fame, but he got fired by the Ravens for a reason. And we are still not 100% sold on Jaxson Dart. Playoff berths and early-round wins? Sure — even Daboll did that once. But a championship? Doubt it. No coach has ever won the Super Bowl with two teams for a reason.

As for this season …

Week 1 vs. Cowboys (SNF): Everyone will be fired up for the official start of the Harbaugh era. The good vibes will not last long. It won’t be as ugly as the 2023 opener, but it won’t be pretty. The Dallas offense will be too much. Loss, 0-1.

Week 2 at Rams (MNF): An even tougher matchup. And maybe Aaron Donald’s return! This is the Rams’ last run at a title as currently constituted. They will look the part here as the Giants fall to 0-2 for the third consecutive season. Loss, 0-2.

Week 3 vs. Titans: The perfect remedy for a team in crisis — Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll returning to town. The Giants eke out a rough-and-tumble affair to stabilizing their season. Win, 1-2.

Week 4 vs. Cardinals: Even better. Arizona is going to be godawful this season. The Giants roll and get back to .500. Win, 2-2.

Week 5 at Commanders: One of the Giants’ biggest games in years. But it is also a crucial one for Washington. The Commanders have a hellacious opening month — at Eagles, at Cowboys, home against the Seahawks and Colts — and may need a victory here desperately based on how it plays out. Close game, but Jayden Daniels outplays Dart. Loss, 2-3.

Week 6 vs. Saints: New Orleans will be a trendy surprise pick after finishing strong last season. And they have the type of offense that could be a problem for the Giants, especially if quarterback Tyler Shough continues to ascend. But these are the types of games you pay Harbaugh millions of dollars to win. Coin toss game. What the hell. Win, 3-3.

Week 7 at Texans: Houston is the type of team the Giants want to be … but they are not there yet. Loss, 3-4.

Week 8: Idle.

Week 9 at Eagles: The Birds will likely take a step back this year. But the Giants don’t win in Philly. Loss, 3-5.

Week 10 vs. Commanders (TNF): Washington is coming off a date with the Rams, so the short week will be brutal for all involved. These matchups tend to favor the home team. The Giants split the season series and stay relevant. Win, 4-5.

Week 11 vs. Jacksonville: The beginning of the slide. The Jaguars look like another team that might take a step back, but they will need games like this to stay in the AFC playoff picture. Loss, 4-6.

Week 12 at Colts: Daniel Jones — assuming he is healthy — gets some revenge on his old club. Loss, 4-7.

Week 13 vs. 49ers: Who knows what the injury-prone Niners will look like here. But they will still be better than the Giants. Loss, 4-8.

Week 14 at Seahawks: Not much needs be said here, Loss, 4-9.

Week 15 vs. Browns: The Giants finally get some relief and get off the schneid. But it’s too little, too late. Win, 5-9.

Week 16 at Lions (MNF): We have a weird feeling this is where the Giants pull a post-Christmas upset that everyone begins using as a data point to suggest they can become a serious contender in 2027. Win, 6-9.

Week 17 at Cowboys: Another mismatch. Loss, 6-10.

Week 18 vs. Eagles: The Birds will need this to get into the postseason. Loss, 6-11 final record.