ESNY’s MLB Preview 2026: Set sail, Seattle Mariners!

The Seattle Mariners were so close to breaking Major League Baseball’s cruel version of the classic Seaman’s Curse trope.

They held a 3-1 lead over the Blue Jays in the seventh inning of Game 7 of the ALCS. The first Game 7 in team history, and in front of a hostile Rogers Centre crowd. Trusted starter Bryan Woo came in to pitch in relief in the fifth inning and tossed two scoreless frames, including a three-pitch strikeout of Blue Jays slugger and playoff monster George Springer.

Addison Barger walked to start the seventh, then Isiah Kiner-Falefa singled him over a base. Andres Gimenez laid down the bunt to hand the bat to Springer again. Springer hit the dagger three-run shot on the second pitch. Toronto held the 4-3 lead to win the AL Pennant.

And still, to this day, the Seattle Mariners are the only team to have never played in a World Series.

The good news, however, is that the M’s have a pretty clear runway back to October. The AL West remains fairly weak behind them and anyone with eyes on Seattle’s reigning AL West crown needs to overachieve, and big.

In the meantime, the Mariners have the sails down with the wind at their backs. For the first time in their existence, the division could be theirs to lose.

Greatest Addition: Brendan Donovan. We knew the Mariners were serious about next season when they pulled the trigger on a Brendan Donovan trade. The Gold Glove utility man was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in a three-team deal also involving Tampa Bay and will play third base in Seattle. Donovan has logged some innings there with a +6 defensive runs saved (DRS), and has primarily played second base and left field.

From a coaching standpoint, Donovan is almost a dream hitter. He takes his walks, doesn’t strike out a ton, and hits for a generally okay batting average. His only downside is that he’s a majority ground ball hitter and is not a home run threat. His career high is 14 in 2024, and T-Mobile Stadium favors pitchers. The Mariners’ lineup is also fairly lefty-dominant.

But given how the Mariners netted a 1.4 fWAR among their three most regular third baseman last season? Donovan’s presence alone is a marked improvement.

Greatest Loss: Jorge Polanco. Polanco wasn’t a Mariner for long, just two seasons, but 2025 was a “prove it” season and the veteran infielder delivered. He hit .265 with 26 home runs and a career-best 132 wRC+, and was an overall positive presence despite his net negative glove in the infield. The veteran posted a -5 fielding run value (FRV) at second and third base before signing with the Mets…to play first base.

The sad truth is the Mariners never had any plans to bring Jorge Polanco back. He’s already 32 and never healthy, and Seattle needs to pivot focus to prospects Cole Young and Colt Emerson. Polanco, meanwhile, will take another whack at a World Series with New York.

Greatest Strength: Pitching staff. DraftKings predicts 89.5 wins for the Mariners for a reason. From a pitching standpoint, Seattle is playing with house money. Luis Castillo is the oldest starter at 33 years old. The remaining four, led by ace Logan Gilbert, are all under 30. The team had a 3.87 staff ERA in 2025, and that was somehow 13th in MLB.

Granted, consistency and health are the X-factors. This is a young staff that reached Game 7 of the ALCS with not a single starter throwing 200 innings. Seattle’s arms already do the lion’s share of the work, so it’s vital that guys like Bryce Miller and George Kirby come back from down seasons.

Greatest Weakness: Streaky lineup. To be fair, the Mariners hit where it counts: Power. The team ranked third in baseball with 238 home runs last season, led by star catcher Cal “Big Dumper” Raleigh’s incredible 60-homer campaign. Five-tool centerfielder Julio “J-Rod” Rodriguez finished behind him with 32.

The downside is that otherwise, the Mariners are a very streaky team when it comes to hitting. Their .240 team batting average ranked 20th in MLB last year. Park factor clearly plays a role, but manager Dan Wilson knows his team can’t Joey Gallo its way to the World Series. There needs to be consistency aside from the three true outcomes, thus why someone like Donovan was acquired.

Moreover, expecting Raleigh to turn in yet another 60-homer campaign is unrealistic. Grossly so. The lineup as it is feels very top-heavy, not ideal for a team looking to go all the way.

Will Seattle sail into the playoffs? They certainly should. The talent is there on paper, and the rest of the West ranges from awful to average. It’s just a matter of what the Mariners need at the deadline (if anything) and getting the most out of key trade chips like Randy Arozarena. Not to mention the young pitching staff’s health holding up all season.

The AL West is the Seattle Mariners’ to lose, full stop. Barring injuries, they can only beat themselves.