Jets at Ravens Odds and Picks: Why Baltimore (-13.5) Dominates This AFC Showdown

The New York Jets travel to face the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. EST. This clash presents a classic study in contrasts: a turnover-plagued Jets offense, now led by Tyrod Taylor, battling a high-scoring Ravens attack that struggles with red zone efficiency. The Jets, led by dual-threat running back Breece Hall, must overcome their league-worst -11 turnover differential while averaging just 19.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Ravens counter with quarterback Lamar Jackson and power back Derrick Henry in an offense that produces 25.0 points per game but converts only 47.2% of red zone opportunities into touchdowns.

The game features significant playoff implications for 5-5 Baltimore while representing another test of resilience for a Jets team searching for consistency. The Ravens have won 4 in a row while the Jets’ two-game win streak ended in New England.

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds

The betting markets have established the Ravens as overwhelming home favorites, reflecting the stark contrast between these two franchises’ current trajectories. The odds movement since opening suggests strong market confidence in Baltimore’s ability to control this matchup from start to finish.

• Moneyline: Baltimore Ravens -1136 | New York Jets +711
• Spread: Baltimore Ravens -13.5 (-110) | New York Jets +13.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 44.5 (-111) | Under 44.5 (-109)

The Ravens opened as -549 favorites, but the moneyline has ballooned to -1136, indicating heavy action on the home team. The 13.5-point spread underscores the perceived talent gap between Baltimore’s explosive offense and New York’s inconsistent attack. The total sits at 44.5 points with slight juice favoring the over.

Based on current moneyline odds, the implied no-vig probabilities are:

• Baltimore Ravens: 88.2% chance to win
• New York Jets: 11.8% chance to win

Jets vs Ravens Prediction: Ravens Cover Large Spread at Home

While 13.5 points represents substantial territory, the situational trends and statistical mismatches strongly favor a dominant Ravens performance. The Jets have proven incapable of competing with superior opponents, posting a dismal 1-5 record against the spread (.167) over their last six games as underdogs of seven or more points. Conversely, Baltimore excels in this exact scenario, boasting a 7-1 against the spread record (.875) when favored by a touchdown or more over their last eight contests.

The Jets’ catastrophic turnover differential creates short fields for Baltimore’s opportunistic offense, while their anemic scoring attack lacks the firepower to keep pace in a potential shootout. For the total, multiple trends support the over. Baltimore has cashed the over in 5 of their last 6 home games as favorites and 4 of 5 home contests this season. The Jets contribute to higher-scoring affairs on the road, with overs hitting in 6 of their last 7 away games.

Game Picks:

• Spread: Baltimore Ravens -13.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 44.5 (-111)

Jets vs Ravens Player Props: Analyzing Key Betting Opportunities

The player prop market reflects Baltimore’s defensive dominance and New York’s offensive struggles, with lines set for a game where the Ravens control tempo and field position. Below are the most relevant props for skill position players from both sides:

Player	Passing Yards	Passing TDs (Over)
Lamar Jackson (BAL)	207.5 (-113)	1.5 (-167)
Tyrod Taylor (NYJ)	186.5 (-114)	0.5 (-188)

Player	Rushing Yards	Anytime TD Scorer
Derrick Henry (BAL)	87.5 (-119)	-233
Breece Hall (NYJ)	65.5 (-114)	+133
Lamar Jackson (BAL)	33.5 (-112)	+202
Keaton Mitchell (BAL)	21.5 (-117)	+458

Player	Receiving Yards	Anytime TD Scorer
Zay Flowers (BAL)	62.5 (-117)	+142
Mason Taylor (NYJ)	33.5 (-115)	+300
Adonai Mitchell (NYJ)	32.5 (-117)	+400
Mark Andrews (BAL)	30.5 (-115)	+140
Breece Hall (NYJ)	17.5 (-121)	+133
Isaiah Likely (BAL)	23.5 (-115)	+255

The Jets’ offensive limitations are reflected in Taylor’s modest 186.5 passing yards line and his interception prop sitting at -125 for over 0.5 picks. Hall represents New York’s primary offensive weapon with dual-threat capability, featuring a combined Rushing + Receiving Yards line of 88.5 (-118). His anytime touchdown odds of +133 make him the Jets’ most viable scoring threat.

For Baltimore, the prop markets anticipate a ground-heavy attack with Henry’s rushing attempts line set at 17.5 (-132 Over). Zay Flowers leads the receiving corps with a 62.5-yard line, while Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely offer tight end options in the red zone.

Best Jets vs Ravens Player Prop Prediction

The projected game script strongly favors Baltimore’s rushing attack as they build and maintain a substantial lead throughout the contest. This scenario creates ideal conditions for their primary ball-carrier to accumulate significant volume against a Jets defense that will spend extended time on the field.

Best Prop Bet: Derrick Henry Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-119)

This selection aligns perfectly with the anticipated game flow. As 13.5-point home favorites, the Ravens project to establish an early advantage and control the clock through their ground game. Henry’s rushing attempts line of 17.5 (-132 Over) suggests meaningful volume, and against a defense worn down by extended possessions, he’s positioned to exceed this modest yardage total. Baltimore’s physical, ground-and-pound approach becomes their preferred method of salting away victories, making Henry the primary beneficiary of a positive game script.

Jets vs Ravens Statistical Breakdown: Offensive and Defensive Mismatches

The statistical comparison reveals significant disparities between these AFC opponents, highlighting Baltimore’s advantages across multiple key categories that directly impact game outcomes and betting considerations.

Stat Category	New York Jets	Baltimore Ravens
Points Per Game	19.7	25.0
Total Yards Per Game	281.5	322.0
Passing Yards Per Game	139.9	180.0
Rushing Yards Per Game	141.6	142.0
Third Down Efficiency	36.6%	40.0%
Red Zone TD %	52.2%	47.2%
Turnover Differential	-11	-2
Sacks (Defensive)	1.8	1.5
Takeaways (Defensive)	0.1	1.0

The most glaring mismatch emerges when examining the Jets’ offense against Baltimore’s defense. New York’s anemic production of 19.7 points and 281.5 total yards per game faces a Ravens defense that has generated 11 takeaways this season. The Jets’ catastrophic ball security, evidenced by their -11 turnover differential and minuscule 0.1 takeaways per game, plays directly into Baltimore’s hands.

Conversely, the Ravens’ balanced offensive attack averaging 322.0 total yards encounters a Jets defense that manages just 1.8 sacks per game. While Baltimore struggles in red zone efficiency at 47.2%, their ability to consistently move between the 20-yard lines should provide ample scoring opportunities. The Jets’ lone statistical advantage appears in red zone touchdown percentage at 52.2%, but their defense must first prevent Baltimore from reaching scoring position—a daunting task given their offensive limitations and poor field position battles.

Jets vs Ravens Injury Report: Key Health Concerns

Both teams enter Week 12 managing significant injury concerns, with 16 total players appearing on combined injury reports. The Ravens list 10 players with various ailments, while the Jets monitor 6 players heading into Sunday’s contest.

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Fantasy/Betting Impact
Rashod Bateman	WR	Ankle	Doubtful	His absence funnels additional targets to Zay Flowers (62.5 receiving yards) and Mark Andrews (30.5 receiving yards), increasing their prop value.
Roquan Smith	LB	Hamstring	Questionable	Baltimore’s defensive leader being limited creates opportunities for Breece Hall to exceed his 65.5 rushing yards prop through increased running lanes.
Keyon Martin	CB	Rib	Doubtful	Thins Ravens’ secondary depth, potentially benefiting Jets receiver Adonai Mitchell in favorable one-on-one coverage situations.
Isaiah Likely	TE	Calf	Questionable	Calf injury threatens his 23.5 receiving yards prop while potentially increasing Mark Andrews’ target share in two-tight-end sets.
Kyle Hamilton	SAF	Shoulder	Questionable	Limited availability of this defensive playmaker could open middle-of-the-field opportunities for Jets’ passing attack over intermediate routes.
Will McDonald IV	DE	Quad	Questionable	Weakened pass rush gives Lamar Jackson additional pocket time, enhancing his chances of exceeding passing yardage props and extending drives.
Kene Nwangwu	RB	Hamstring	Doubtful	Jets’ backup absence solidifies Breece Hall’s workhorse role with no meaningful competition for backfield touches throughout the contest.

The most impactful absence involves Rashod Bateman, whose doubtful status redirects Baltimore’s aerial attack toward their remaining playmakers. Roquan Smith’s questionable designation represents the Ravens’ most concerning defensive injury, as his potential limitation could compromise their run defense against Hall’s dual-threat capabilities.

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disclaimer: AI helped in the creation of this post