Baptism by Fire: Looking for Value on the Jaxson Dart Prop Market Ahead of First Giants’ Start
Rookie quarterbacks are almost always placed in a tough spot for their debuts.
Jaxson Dart finds himself in that very position on Sunday for his first Giants start at home against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Giants are a 6.5-point underdog at ESPN Bet and the prop market suggests low expectations for the Mississippi product.
Dart’s pass-yard Over/Under sits at 190.5. He sits at Over/Under 18.5 pass completions and is -160 to throw an interception. The rookie QB and the Giants offense might struggle against the Chargers, who have held two of three opponents under 200 passing yards.
Los Angeles limited the Las Vegas Raiders to 150 air yards and held the Denver Broncos to 147 passing yards. The Chargers are also one of four teams to allow just two touchdown passes through three games.
So, yeah, the argument can easily be made to hold off on Dart for one more week and have him debut against the lowly New Orleans Saints, build up some confidence and then go forward.
But nope. This is a baptism by fire. Dart gets to lead a Giants passing attack that has had one really good game and two clunkers, versus an above average pass defense.
The good news, though, if you plan to wager on Dart at NY sports betting apps, is that the Giants should be playing from behind and that game script favors passing.
The Chargers faced the ninth-most pass attempts so far in 2025. Dart’s Over/Under of 31.5 pass attempts looks like a more manageable prop to bet because of those numbers.
You won’t have to worry about an early exit in a potential blowout because Dart needs as many reps as possible. Look at the over as a prop you can count on.
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While the QB change is exciting, I’m not sure if it’ll benefit Malik Nabers right away given the matchup.
I think you’ll see a lot more checkdowns against the Chargers’ pressure, which benefits Wan’Dale Robinson, Cam Skattebo, and possibly Theo Johnson.
Robinson’s reception prop sits at Over 4.5, while Skattebo’s sits Over/Under 2.5. I would put those two props and the o30.5 Dart pass attempts together in a Same Game Parlay.
I would go deeper into pass-game props next week against the Saints if Dart shows promise because of the matchup, but, for Sunday, I would keep it very vanilla until you see what the rookie can do in a regular-season game.
Kevin has been working in sports media since 2009. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com
