The strange HOF case for Tommy John

Former New York Yankees lefty and MLB journeyman Tommy John passed away at age 83 on Saturday and, of course, the expected tributes poured in quickly.

John’s unprecedented 26 year-long career after Dr. Frank Jobe took a risk with what was thought to be a destroyed left elbow ligament. Over fifty years later, ligament replacement surgery—Tommy John surgery—is so common to the point of it being an epidemic in baseball. Or how John pitched for six different teams until finally retiring at age 46 in 1989. John was the Yankees’ Opening Day starter that same season.

And, of course, how Tommy John should be in the Hall of Fame both by the numbers and because of his surgery revolutionizing baseball. His 3.34 career ERA is respectable along with going 288-231, with 164 of those wins coming post-surgery. Impressive indeed!

But let’s slow our roll. First and foremost, John’s numbers should meet Hall of Fame criteria. He would easily have 300 wins if not for missing time with injuries, and not just his elbow surgery. What he might not have achieved, on the other hand, was 3,000 strikeouts. John only posted 4.3 K/9 for his career and was primarily a sinker-baller, or what we’d now call a “soft contact” guy. This is someone who gave up less than a home run per nine innings for his career, even as baseball became more offense-oriented towards the end of his career.

It’s also worth noting that even as he started declining, John was better under the hood than what fans saw on the baseball field. He posted a 4.43 ERA from his age-40 season through the end of his career, yet maintained a 4.04 FIP. This was the downside of his pitching style: he gave up about a hit per inning, and more as he got older.

But even then, John is still what Mike Francesa would undeniably call a “compiler” rather than an all-time great. John never won a World Series and, despite his long career, was only a four-time All-Star. He never won a Cy Young Award, though he was the runner-up twice: Once to Steve Carlton in 1977 and again to Mike Flanagan in 1979. John never led in any major pitching statistic either.

Now consider that along with Carlton, John’s contemporaries featured all-time greats like Tom Seaver, Fergie Jenkins, and John’s former Dodgers teammate Don Sutton. All dominant aces with career numbers that easily clear HOF standards. Not exactly room for someone like Tommy John.

Or is there?

Let’s focus less on Tommy John and his statistics and more on Tommy John and what he actually did on the field. Simple: he showed up, took the ball, and gave his team however many innings the game allowed him. He wouldn’t stuff the stat sheet, but he was durable. If the bullpen needed a rest, odds are Tommy John could come out and, as the term goes, eat some innings.

There it is: the ever-elusive “innings-eater” whose decline continues in the age of analytics and pitch counts. More and more, it’s becoming rare to see more than one or two pitchers toss over 200 innings in a season. Last year, Boston’s Garrett Crochet was the only one at 205.1 frames. In 2021, not a single pitcher tossed 200 innings. Eventual Cy Young winner Robbie Ray’s 193 innings were the most in baseball.

But go back to 2019, the last true “juiced baseball” season, and eight pitchers had 200 or more innings in the regular season. Go back to 2015, and a whopping 14 pitchers cleared 200 innings. Of that group, five won Cy Young Awards at some point, but only two can be considered surefire Hall of Famers: Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez. Sale has only pitched 200 innings or more four times, compared to King Felix’s eight.

Tommy John, meanwhile, in his 26 seasons? He pitched 200 innings or more exactly 12 times in his career. A clean dozen. What’s more, seven of those campaigns occurred after his surgery! And yet, because baseball can be cruel, not once did John lead baseball in innings pitched. His career high was 276.1 in 1979, his age-36 season, and he didn’t even rank first in the American League!

In fact, John ranked fourth that year behind Atlanta knuckleballer and future Yankees teammate Phil Niekro, Baltimore righty Dennis Martinez, and Astros flamethrower J.R. Richard.

Yes, it was a different game then and teams were happy to let their starters throw all nine innings if the team was winning. Richard, for example, was near-unhittable in his prime. Furthermore, you think John had a long career? Niekro’s being a knuckleballer allowed him rack up over 300 wins and over 3,300 strikeouts as he pitched 24 years, up through his age-48 season.

But Dennis Martinez? He and John are more similar than people realize. The Nicaraguan right-hander pitched more than 200 innings nine times in a 22-year career, six of which came during his prime Montreal Expos years in the ’80s and ’90s. Like John, he too didn’t become a household name until his mid-30s.

As to numbers, Martinez has 245 wins, less than 200 losses, but only a shade over 2,100 strikeouts. He has a World Series ring, an ERA title, and four All-Star selections that all came from his age-36 season and onward. He is not in the Hall of Fame despite arguably “accomplishing more” than John.

An even better example might be longtime New York Mets lefty Jerry Koosman who, unlike John, pitched less than 20 years. Only 19 for the veteran from Morris, Minnesota. Like John, Koosman also never led the majors nor his league in wins. He did, however, lead in losses twice.

But in those nineteen years, racking up over 200 wins and north of 2,500 strikeouts, Koosman pitched more than 200 innings a dozen times. He even added 224 for the Phillies in 1984, when Koosman was 41 and still somehow posted a 3.25 ERA and 2.85 FIP.

Of course, Koosman is not in the Hall of Fame.

That’s the Tommy John question in a nutshell. How valuable is a durable player who shows up and wins without blow-your-shoes-off numbers? This is the “Gritty grinder” the boomers on Twitter complain is dying out. Oddly enough, the answer lies in more and more pitchers chasing velocity and seeing careers cut short by, you guessed it, Tommy John surgery. Now add analytics showing even the best pitchers being vulnerable to a third turn through a lineup.

Who knows? Maybe the system will eventually correct itself, some young pitchers being control pitchers over strikeout artists will be embraced again, and we’ll soon see 2015 innings numbers again. Only time will tell, but it seems obvious if everyone is serious about curbing pitcher injuries.

Until then, Tommy John will be known for three things. A revolutionary elbow operation. Pitching for over 20 years. And, most importantly, doing it at a high level despite a deck stacked against him.