Can Yankees beat Dodgers without Aaron Judge?

The New York Yankees have a busy first day of the second half ahead of them. The two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers are in town for the weekend, and New York is also expecting an update on team captain and reigning MVP Aaron Judge’s rib injury. Judge has not played in over a month recovering from a stress fracture in his ribs.

Thus presents a scary prospect for the weekend indeed. The Yankees swept the Washington Nationals to close the first half strong after extended struggles at the plate, but the Dodgers are a whole different animal. They have baseball’s best run differential at an eye-popping +149 and, of course, own the best record in MLB. This is the team the Yankees are tasked with defeating without Aaron Judge in the lineup. The same Aaron Judge who is a .388 lifetime hitter with 11 home runs versus Dodger Blue.

That isn’t to say the Yankees are sunk from the get-go, even after losing the season series to LA each of the last two years along with the 2024 World Series. Game 1 is a pick ’em at NY sports betting apps, with both teams priced at -110. The lineup is far more than simply “Aaron Judge & Friends” and quite deep despite the annual June swoon. All-Star first baseman Ben Rice is batting .359 with six home runs this month after hitting an awful .196 in June. All-Star Game MVP Cody Bellinger entered the Break batting .421 through a modest five-game hitting streak after watching his batting average drop nearly 30 points over a month-plus slump.

It’s also worth noting that the Dodgers lineup, despite being baseball’s best with a 115 wRC+ as a team, isn’t invincible beyond Shohei Ohtani. Mookie Betts missed a month with a sore back and is batting a career-worst .235. Freddie Freeman is playing well, but the future Hall of Fame first baseman is starting to look old at 36. So is Max Muncy at 35. Known Yankee killer Teoscar Hernandez is batting .098 since returning from a pulled hamstring.

Kyle Tucker, he of the infamous $240 million contract, is only batting .244 with seven homers. His glove is a net negative across the board.

New York also dodged a bullet in terms of pitching matchups. The Dodgers are throwing out the following arms, in order: Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Breakout starter Justin Wroblewski will not get a chance on the mound at the Big Ballpark in the Bronx.

A second-year Japanese righty with control problems in Sasaki, streaky strikeout potential from fastball-slider guy Sheehan, and a veritable ace in Yamamoto. The same Yamamoto who got lit up for six runs in six innings by Arizona in his final start before the Break.

But even then, the Dodgers have won two of the three regular season series since interdivisional play ended in 2023. Add Judge not being in the lineup along with his team’s recent struggles. Sounds like a recipe for a rough weekend, doesn’t it?

Well, maybe not. The Yankees, independent of Judge, have always matched up well against the Dodgers. Win or lose. The Bronx Bombers even won the first regular season series at Dodger Stadium in ’23, infamously a non-playoff season in New York. They took two out of three and only lost the series opener on account of Luis Severino’s awful start (and season, for that matter).

Fast forward to a 2024 weekend at Yankee Stadium, and it was practically a World Series preview. Friday marked a scoreless pitcher’s duel between Yamamoto and Yanks spot starter Cody Poteet (and bullpen buddies) before LA won in 11 innings. Saturday was close for the first half of the game, with the Dodgers holding a 3-2 lead in the fifth inning before blowing it open to win 11-3. Sunday was a Yankees come-from-behind win capped with All-Star closer Clay Holmes fanning Mookie Betts with the tying runs on base. The Yankees lost the series, but proved they could keep up.

Almost the same happened during a weekend in LA last year. The Yankees led 5-2 on Friday before Max Fried fell apart in the sixth inning and LA won 8-5. The Dodgers then spent Saturday jumping on then-rookie Will Warren’s fastball to the tune of seven runs in less than two innings. An aggressive approach against Yamamoto and strong start from Ryan Yarbrough in Sunday’s finale prevented the sweep.

The Yankees would love nothing more than to at least make Sunday’s matchup a rubber game this time around.

And not for nothing, the Yankees have some strong cards to play. Rice homered off of Yamamoto last season. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a .316 career hitter against the Dodgers. Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt have hit a combined .281 against in their respective careers. Moreover, 36 of Goldschmidt’s 387 career home runs are against the Dodgers. That’s the most he has hit against any individual opponent. Cam Schlittler, pitching against Yamamoto on Sunday, is an AL Cy Young favorite per VegasInsider.

Don’t let the standings fool you. This is no David vs. Goliath. The Yankees are second in the AL East and only three games behind the Rays, and have the best staff ERA in baseball. Their team wRC+ is only above average at 107, yet the best in the American League. They have a very good chance of upsetting the Dodgers this weekend. That’s baseball, Suzyn.

Coming out of the All-Star Break is basically a reset. There is every chance that both teams could take the field with a clean slate. Any early predictions could be proven moot and/or false faster than a Schlittler four-seamer.

But make no mistake. The American League is mediocre this year and the Yankees are the team to beat. Just like the last two season series, this weekend has World Series preview potential. And without Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup!

Buckle up and bet accordingly, baseball fans. Nothing but action awaits.