Brian Daboll out, Bill Belichick in? Exploring the early odds for the next New York Giants head coach

The New York Giants finally cut bait on Brian Daboll a week ago, setting up another wide open offseason while offensive coordinator and interim coach Mike Kafka finishes out 2025.

The good news is the Giants have an OK foundation with rookie QB Jaxson Dart. Malik Nabers has missed most of the season with a knee injury, but is still the unquestioned WR1 when he’s healthy next season. Cam Skattebo looked good before his injury. But defense remains a weak point and owner John Mara hasn’t made a truly difference-making coaching hire since Tom Coughlin stepped down. No offense to Daboll, but he grossly overachieved his first year in New York.

Even so, hiring a defensive mind isn’t the answer. Just look at how Aaron Glenn is struggling with Justin Fields quarterbacking the Jets. The Giants need an offense-first approach, even if it means reaching out to an old name “just in case.”

The prediction market Kalshi currently lists six head coaches with a 5% chance or better of landing the New York job, among them Mike McCarthy, Klint Kubiak, and Lou Anorumo:

You can trade on Kalshi for McCarthy to become the next Giants coach. A “yes” selection at $10 pays out $53.

Here’s a look at some of the listed names, plus a wild card:

Bill Belichick

There’s enough history here for there to be mutual interest, even though Belichick recently put out a statement re-iterating his commitment to coaching the North Carolina Tar Heels. But if his first season in Chapel Hill is any indication, the six-time Super Bowl winning head coach has aged out of the game. UNC is 4-6 (2-4 ACC) on the season.

Don’t let the nostalgia factor fool you. Belichick also won two Super Bowls with the Giants as coach Bill Parcells’ defensive coordinator, but just look at his last five years in New England. The man couldn’t draft to save his life, nor did the Patriots ever have a proper WR1 under his watch save for three years of an aging Randy Moss. It could happen, but don’t count on it.

Mike McCarthy

McCarthy was a candidate in New York before accepting the Cowboys job in 2020 and managed a 49-35 record in four years. He’s a little older at 62, but his years of experience as an offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach could help him. Again, the Giants have two big pieces already in Dart and Nabers.

If he ultimately gets the job, don’t judge McCarthy on only having one Super Bowl and a string of early exits or falling just short since. It’s looking like his rough end in Green Bay was more him and Aaron Rodgers getting sick of each other. Being a publicly-owned team is a one-way ticket to the QB practically becoming a monarch. We saw it with Rodgers and Brett Favre before him.

As for Dallas, that McCarthy managed three trips to the playoffs despite Jerry Jones’ ongoing dumbness is a miracle all its own. He wouldn’t be the best hire for the G-Men, but they could certainly do worse

Klint Kubiak

Sticking with Kalshi’s odds, Kubiak is listed as the favorite behind McCarthy at 9%. The son of former Super Bowl-winning coach Gary Kubiak, Klint is 38 years old and currently the offensive coordinator in Seattle. He served in the same role in New Orleans last season, while working similar jobs with the 49ers, Vikings, and Broncos. The last two weeks aside, Kubiak has also engineered quarterback Sam Darnold’s continued success after his breakout campaign in Minnesota last year.

Kubiak’s father was a big proponent of zone-blocking offense, which means a strong running game and big strong tight ends. There’s a lane for him to succeed in New York, so long as he doesn’t lean too hard on this approach.

Greg Roman

Speaking of leaning too hard on an approach, here we have a bit of a wild card in Roman. He’s currently Jim Harbaugh’s offensive coordinator with the Chargers, the same position he held when the two worked together in San Francisco. More recently, the 53-year-old has worked for the Bills and Ravens.

However, look at Roman’s NFL career when he isn’t working for Jim Harbaugh, and it’s not as pretty a picture. Even in guiding Lamar Jackson to his first MVP trophy, Roman proved wholly incapable of developing a proper WR1. The Ravens drafted talented college wideouts like Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay, both of whom had 1,000 yard seasons in college, and Roman did practically nothing. He focused on the running backs and tight ends while Duvernay was shifted to special teams and Bateman was practically begging for targets.

This would be a very Mara hire, especially given Roman’s old-school offense. But long-term? This hire could hinder Dart’s development under center.

Joe Brady

Here we have a name who, for this writer’s money, is due some head coaching consideration. Brady is 36 and the Buffalo Bills’ offensive coordinator, fresh off of piloting Josh Allen to an MVP season. Additionally, he helped Joe Burrow and LSU to a national championship in 2018. A former Sean Payton assistant, Brady removed himself from the Saints’ coaching search last winter to remain in Buffalo.

Brady employs a traditional spread offense that sometimes dips into peak Payton Saints territory. Lots of high scoring potential so long as he has the pieces to work with. The Giants have their QB1 in Dart, their WR1 in Nabers, and don’t need to trip over themselves to fill holes in the offense. With patience and an actual opportunity to succeed, Joe Brady bringing his playbook to Big Blue might be a low-key great hire.

---

For what it’s worth the DraftKings odds mostly sync up with the Kalshi offers. If your state allows betting on these types of props, DK has Mike McCarthy out in front, with +700 odds. Joining Brady and Kubiak in the top eight are Jon Gruden, Jesse Minter, Jeff Hafley, Kafka, and Anarumo. Belichick is listed at +1400.

If any of those odds jump at you, go ahead and grab a DraftKings promo code and splash a unit or two.