NY Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Aaron Judge chasing .400

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox were as advertised in their first game against each other at Yankee Stadium on Friday. New York slugged its way to a 9-6 win on the backs of home runs by Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, and Paul Goldschmidt.

Boston starter Walker Buehler, the former Dodger who struck out Alex Verdugo to end last year’s World Series, only lasted two innings.

Saturday’s tilt should present more of a challenge for the Yankees. Boston sends ace Garrett Crochet to the hill, while the Yankees counter with journeyman lefty Ryan Yarbrough.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is batting .398 after a three-hit night on Friday, and will look to break .400 Saturday.

Time: 7:35 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Betting Line: Yankees +1.5 (-110), O/U 7.5

Key Storyline: Can Yankees solve Garrett Crochet? No disrespect to Aaron Judge chasing .400, but the real story tonight is how the Yankees handle Crochet. The big lefty is the reigning AL Comeback Player of the Year after turning in an All-Star campaign as a starter for the White Sox in 2024. Mind you, Crochet missed all of 2022 with Tommy John surgery and only appeared in 14 games the following season.

However, Crochet has never faced New York as a starter. His three appearances against them all came as a reliever, albeit with a 0.00 ERA. It will be interesting to see how Judge and the powerful New York lineup approach Crochet’s filthy fastball-cutter combo.

Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet (5-4, 1.98 ERA) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (3-0, 2.83 ERA). Crochet has picked up right where he left off after his breakout season. His stellar 1.98 ERA is paired with a strong 3.04 expected ERA (xERA), and both his FIP and expected FIP (xFIP) are solid at 2.67 and 2.85, respectively.

Yarbrough has had a similarly solid year with the Yankees so far, his 2.83 ERA paired with a 2.91 xERA. A 4.21 FIP shows some overachieving, but Yarbrough makes up for it with a soft contact rate (Soft%) of nearly 22%. That’d be good for fourth in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.

It also helps that Yarbrough practically dominated the defending champion Dodgers in his last start on Sunday. He pitched six innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts and no walks as the Yankees won 6-4.

X-Factor: The Yankees’ bullpen. New York’s relief corps pitched 3.2 innings to bring the win home, and they’ll be even more vitally important on Saturday. Yarbrough has been great for the Yankees, but Boston has historically hit him hard in his career. He is 5-4 with an astronomical 7.09 ERA in 20 games (nine starts) against Boston.

We should also note that even in Friday’s loss, Boston’s bats showed late signs of life. That momentum can easily carry over into Saturday’s game, especially with an ace in Crochet on the mound for the Sawx. The Yankee bullpen, already without closer Luke Weaver, should be prepared for a long night.

Prediction: The Red Sox have been down bad as of late, but as we saw on Friday, they always play the Yankees a little harder. Such is manager Alex Cora’s philosophy of the team always having a shot at the win until they don’t…after the final out.

This time, fortune favors the Sox. Win or lose, Crochet has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts this year. Yarbrough, meanwhile, needs his breaking pitches at their best to be effective and simply does not throw a fastball. That isn’t to say he’ll get rocked. But even so, definitely ride Boston’s moneyline (-110) and the under if you’re on New York sports betting apps. A Judge hit or home run parlay is always a good idea too. Red Sox 4, Yankees 2.