The date is October 19, 2024. The site is Progressive Field; Cleveland, Ohio.
Two pitchers take the mound for the game that night, Game 5 of the ALCS between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians. Neither will get the win, and one won’t even finish five innings. But when the dust settles, Juan Soto’s home run in the tenth inning puts the Yankees ahead 5-2 and proves the pennant-clincher.
On Tuesday night, at Yankee Stadium, these two pitchers will face off again. Carlos Rodon and Tanner Bibee in an ALCS clincher rematch.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: TBS, YES
Run Line: Yankees -1.5, O/U 7.5
Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee (4-5, 3.86 ERA) vs Carlos Rodon (7-3, 2.60 ERA). Bibee has already faced the Yankees once this year, taking the win after Cleveland rallied to win 3-2 on April 22. In turn, on April 23, Rodon shut down the Guardians with one unearned run over seven innings with eight strikeouts. Just a slice of what’s been an excellent ace-level year for the big lefty.
Bibee went 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA in May, but has still lucked out this season. He’s still prone to giving up home runs, his FIP is 5.06, and he gives up ground balls and fly balls at an even split. The soft contact specialist needs to be spot on with Yankee Stadium’s short porch lurking behind him.
X-Factor: Devin Williams. Luke Weaver is out at least 4-6 weeks with a hamstring, putting Williams right back in the closer’s role. Since being demoted on April 28, Williams has posted a 3.29 ERA and 2.42 FIP with 20 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. His ERA on the season is down to 6.23 (3.03 FIP) from an ugly 10.00.
Cleveland hasn’t been a great-hitting team in 2025, but they always tend to play the Yankees a little harder. This game could very well be close, so Williams had better be ready for the spotlight.
Prediction: In a battle of strikeouts against soft contact, strikeouts win out. The Yankees have home field advantage and a +98 run differential to Cleveland’s -16. Even in a close game, go on New York sports betting apps and pick both the Yankees and the over. And, of course, an Aaron Judge hit/home run/total bases parlay on the side.
