At long last, it’s finally here: The regular season World Series rematch between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees.
It’s been exactly seven months since the Yankees blew a 5-0 lead in Game 5 and watched the Dodgers celebrate on the field at Yankee Stadium. The Bronx Bombers were completely outplayed in the series by a deep and dangerous Los Angeles team. A perfect storm of factors, namely Aaron Judge vanishing in the playoffs (again), led to the Dodgers’ dominance.
That means these meaningless three games as May bleeds into June are, in a nutshell, a revenge series. The Yankees are back in action and hold a comfy lead in the AL East even after losing Juan Soto in free agency. They’re motivated not only to win, but win big.
And against a talented yet banged up Dodgers squad, they just might get started on Friday.
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV+
Run Line: Yankees -1.5, O/U 8.5
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried (7-0, 1.29 ERA) vs Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 4.68 ERA). Gonsolin is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and certainly has his work cut out for him if he can’t keep his walks down on Friday. That’s because Max Fried has practically made Yankees fans go, “Gerrit Cole? Who?”
Forget that Fried, an LA native out of the Harvard-Westlake High baseball factory, is 7-0 with an MLB-best 1.29 ERA. His ERA+ is an eye-popping 305. That means that this season, the big lefty has been 205% better than the average MLB starter. Moreover, Fried has a 3.18 career ERA against the Dodgers and a 3.21 mark at Dodger Stadium.
Add his 52.3% ground ball rate (GB%) and 20% soft contact allowed, and the Yankees should feel hopeful with Fried facing the deep Dodgers lineup.
X-Factor: Aaron Judge. This is not about Aaron Judge needing to show up because he hit .222 in the World Series last year. He’s a .300 career hitter at Dodger Stadium and hits .389 against the Dodgers in general. He’s going to be fine.
Rather, Aaron Judge is the X-factor of the series because he needs to purge demons of a different variety. Rewind to Saturday, June 3, 2023, when Judge crashed through a bullpen fence to make a catch late in New York’s 6-3 victory. The downside is that, despite finishing the year with 35 homers and 75 RBI, Judge missed nearly two months with a torn ligament in his toe. New York won Sunday’s game and the series without Judge, but it was dumb luck thanks to a late rally capped by Anthony Volpe’s ninth-inning homer.
This time? Judge is leading the charge to put any potential October rematch on notice. This time, he and his Yankees will be ready.
Prediction. It’s not Fried’s monster season, nor the Yankees having a deeper lineup. Friday’s pitching matchup simply does not favor the Dodgers. Gonsolin hasn’t been able to keep his walks down, issuing 12 in 19 innings this month. He won his sole career start against the Yankees, pitching five innings of two-hit, one-run ball…back in August 2019, before Tommy John surgery.
Between patience and smart swings, look for New York to build a lead early on and hold it. Looking at New York sports betting apps, Yankees and the over could be a lock. Add an Aaron Judge home run/hit parlay if you’re feeling aggressive. Yankees 7, Dodgers 2.
