The lowly Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Mets in Flushing this week, and fans get a treat Monday night when Buccos ace Paul Skenes takes the mound.
This is why the game matters despite being an overall meaningless matchup. Skenes is, hands down, one of the best pitchers in baseball despite dealing with something of a sophomore slump in 2025. The Mets counter with their strong lineup and lefty David Peterson.
Pittsburgh isn’t a good scoring team, ranking second to last in MLB with just 28 team home runs. However, this is the first time Skenes and the splinker are truly pitching in New York after a simple one-inning outing versus the Yankees last season.
Don’t look now, but this screams being anyone’s game.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY
Run Line: Mets -1.5, O/U 7.5
Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes (3-4, 2.77 ERA) vs. David Peterson (2-2, 3.05 ERA). The Mets’ counter the big righty Skenes with their big lefty Peterson, who’s continued to pitch well early. He struggled with control and took the loss in his last start against Arizona on May 6, and it’s still unknown how long his success will last.
Contrastingly, Skenes has also struggled this year. His fastball looks flat, and he’s still figuring out more secondary pitches alongside his self-invented splinker. What’s more, he’s already 0-2 in May and struggling with control. In each of his last two starts, he has issued four walks. Over his first six starts, he walked four total.
X-Factor: Peterson. Skenes is on the mound and none of the Mets’ hitters have particularly great numbers against the Pirates. Everyone is kind of middle of the road. That said, Skenes pitching means Peterson really has no choice but to match him inning for inning. Not necessarily with strikeouts, but by being aggressive against a weak Pirates lineup.
They can’t hit home runs, so tonight could be a night where Peterson leans more on his four-seamer as opposed to his sinker.
Prediction: This should be an open-and-shut Mets win. Picking the run line and the over is probably smart if you’re browsing New York sports betting apps. However, Skenes is the wild card here. He could either dominate the Mets, melt down, or somewhere in between where he pitches well and still loses from lack of run support.
Again, picking the Mets to win this should be a lock, so tack on a Skenes strikeout parlay to boost your bet. Mets 5, Pirates 2
