The Washington Nationals’ 2024 season went exactly as their 2023 campaign: They finished 71-91 and the only difference was that they finished fourth in the NL East last year instead of last.
Things haven’t changed much down in DC, and the 2025 season isn’t looking much better. The division is competitive enough that Washington isn’t making the playoffs without making a miracle Wild Card run in September. The young lineup is enough to post overall middling numbers, but finished second-to-last in team home runs in 2024 and 24th in MLB with a 92 wRC+.
The pitching, however, is another story. The Nats’ arms ranked 23rd last year with a 4.30 staff ERA. Their collective FIP, however, ranked ninth at 3.94.
Now, with the young Nationals a year older and wiser, can a likely non-playoff season still be a step forward in the latest rebuild?
Greatest Addition: Nathaniel Lowe. First base has been something of a hole for the Nats, with six different players starting there last season. Enter Lowe, a lefty bat with power who not only won a World Series with the Rangers in 2023, but took home a Gold Glove at first base that same year. Washington acquired him in December along with his final two arbitration years.
Granted, this isn’t to say Lowe boosts the lineup into playoff contention. His home run totals have dropped three years in a row, and that’s a concern given he’s still only 29. He has, however, shown marked improvement in the field. His career outs above average (OAA) and Fielding Run Value (FRV) at first are -9 and -7, respectively, but +9 and +7 over the last two seasons.
Greatest Loss: Robert Garcia. Unfortunately for Washington, adding Lowe cost them a promising young bullpen arm in Garcia. You may wonder, why would Washington trading a 28-year-old middle reliever who’s still in his pre-arb years be a big loss? After all, Garcia posted a 4.22 ERA with no saves in 72 games, and had a 5.12 ERA across the seventh and eighth innings. Not exactly setup man or closer material.
Slow your roll, because Garcia’s underlying metrics tell a different story. His FIP, for one, was a phenomenal 2.38. That screams bad luck and/or his defense letting him down. Garcia also posted 11.3 K/9 and kept his walks down to the tune of a 1.19 WHIP.
But what really stands out are the even deeper metrics: Garcia’s expected ERA (xERA) was in the 97th percentile and his hard-hit rate (Hard-Hit%) hit the 98th. His offspeed pitching run value was +7 and in the 94th percentile.
Simply put, the kid can pitch, and Washington gave up on him too soon.
FanDuel Sportsbook –
States: NY, NJ, PA, CT, IA, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, VA, WV, WY / Gambling problem? Call 1 - 800 - GAMBLER.
CLAIM OFFER!Greatest Strength: Lineup core. There’s more than enough room for improvement, but the Nationals still have some excited pieces in their lineup. CJ Abrams might not be much of a shortstop, but set new career highs with 20 home runs and a 107 wRC+ last season. James Wood isn’t a great outfield glove, but has enough raw power to maybe be a lefty-swinging Aaron Judge. Infielder Luis Garcia broke out with 18 homers of his own.
And who can forget switch-hitting catcher Keibert Ruiz? He’s too aggressive and swings way too often, but rarely strikes out or whiffs. He ranked in the 98th and 99th percentiles in both K% and Whiff%. It’s almost enough to make you forget he posted a -0.3 WAR.
Are any of these players great? Not really, but there’s at least potential for good or very good. Having exciting young hitters like this trio is essential for rebuilding teams like Washington.
Greatest Weakness: Clubhouse leadership. Think of what you generally know about the Washington Nationals, and it’s pretty simple. Bryce Harper was their biggest star at one point, and they went on a miracle run to win the 2019 World Series over the mighty Houston Astros. Though a Wild Card, that Washington team was borderline stacked. Juan Soto and Trea Turner anchored the lineup, and the pitching staff was led by future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg.
Those days are gone, along with any sense of leadership in the Nationals’ clubhouse. Injuries ended Strasburg’s career after the Series. Turner was traded to the Dodgers to cut costs, and then signed with the Phillies to be Harper’s co-captain. All that’s left now is a loose collection of youngsters and journeymen. Josh Bell and Paul DeJong are the two oldest guys in the lineup, at 31 and 32 years old.
Granted, leadership isn’t born overnight. Washington is still a young team finding its way, and it could just be that the new team leader hasn’t yet emerged. But until one does, it’s hard to imagine the Nationals reaching serious contender status.
So what should we expect from the Nationals this season? Read my lips: Do not bet the Nationals on NY sports betting apps, at the sportsbook in Vegas, anywhere. Maybe bet the over on their projected 71.5 wins, but that’s all. The whole squad just has too many questions top to bottom, especially in the lineup. We may like Keibert Ruiz, but he should be on a short leash this year.
Otherwise, the only way Washington makes the playoffs is getting hot late and backing into a Wild Card. It’s certainly possible if Wood mashes and Abrams keeps improving, but an assist from overachievement would too. Stick to Baltimore if you want some good Beltway baseball.
