Two years ago, the Texas Rangers rode a red-hot powerful lineup and a talented (but middling) pitching staff all the way to winning the World Series.
One year later, the lineup regressed towards the pitching’s level, on the lower tier of the middle. Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien both hit under .240, and Corey Seager missed time with injuries despite hitting 30 home runs.
Now, in true Bruce Bochy every-other-year fashion, the Rangers look ready to get back to the playoffs. What’s more, given all the turnover on the Astros, Texas should be the arguable favorites to win the AL West this year.
The talent to do it is there on paper, but that depends on the Rangers. Will this bigger and better lineup be enough to overcome individual backslides? More importantly, can the pitching finally move beyond the middling rankings?
Greatest Addition: Jake Burger. The Rangers’ new big righty bat is more than just a thankful father. Burger has right-handed power perfect for Globe Life Field and mashed 29 home runs in Miami last season. In 2023, he slugged 34 with the Marlins and White Sox.
Burger is currently penciled in as the Rangers’ starting first baseman despite not being a strong fielder. But even then, his career defensive runs saved (DRS) at the position is only -1 across less than 500 innings. Not exactly a large sample size.
Thankfully, it’s hard to imagine Burger being such a black hole at first base that he’s ultimately benched. Everyone from the front office down to Bochy knows his job is to hit home runs. He’ll be a lineup fixture so long as he takes his regular home run trots.
Greatest Loss: Nathaniel Lowe. Gaining Burger meant losing the lefty-swinging Lowe in what was a pure money-dumping trade. Lowe was shipped to the Nationals in December for bullpen righty Robert Garcia after hitting .265 with 16 home runs and 69 RBI in Texas in 2024. He’ll man first base in Washington and, despite his -8 career DRS there, he showed great improvement last season. Lowe registered +7 outs above average (OAA) and his Fielding Run Value (FRV) was a career-high +5.
This said, Lowe was also traded for baseball reasons. Texas’ home ballpark is hitter friendly, and yet his slugging and home runs have dipped for three years in a row. Not an ideal circumstance for a team that has to hit its way to winning the division. Lowe’s arbitration price tag rising also fueled the move, while Burger isn’t even arbitration-eligible until 2026.
He’s still just 29 years old and posted a 121 wRC+. Lowe’s power might have dipped, but he was still an overall effective hitter.
Greatest Strength: Chris Young. Native Texan. Princeton graduate. Former MLB All-Star and World Series champion pitcher. Team president, general manager, and architect of the 2023 World Series winning Texas Rangers. Each describes Young to a towering, 6-foot-10 tee.
Simply put, the man has been nothing short of a fan’s dream executive. Young is active and aggressive on the free agent market. He makes shrewd trades. He convinced a future Hall of Fame manager in Bochy to come out of retirement, and was immediately rewarded with a World Series.
Last year’s step back aside, Young has yet to make any decisions in Texas that are truly, objectively bad. The Rangers only missed the playoffs because key bats like Semien and Garcia didn’t produce enough. A bounce-back season is in store for everyone, and it’ll be a reminder of just how great Young is at his job.
Greatest Weakness: Bullpen & bad contracts. Short-term, the bullpen is the Texas Rangers’ only notable red flag. Their relief corps ranked 26th in MLB with a 4.41 ERA and Young didn’t address it in the offseason. In fact, Texas’ two best relievers from last year are now gone; Kirby Yates to the Dodgers and David Robertson unsigned.
Long-term, however, the Rangers could have a bigger problem. The team has just north of $207 million devoted to payroll this year, and over $120 million devoted to four players: pitchers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, plus Seager and Semien. Two pitchers over 35, one of whom has a lengthy injury history and hasn’t thrown over 100 innings since 2019.
Seager has his own injury problems and is only just entering his age-31 season. He’s due $221.5 million through 2031. Semien is already 34, probably hitting the start of his decline, and owed $98 million through 2028. The World Series makes them sting less, but it’s only a matter of time before these contracts become immovable albatrosses.
Do the Texas Rangers come out on top in 2025? They certainly should in the AL West, at least. Houston is suspect enough that the division really should be the Rangers’ to lose. Garcia should have a bounceback season, and Texas also added some pop in veteran backstop Kyle Higashioka. There is indeed Top 10 potential if the Rangers stay healthy.
That’s the X-factor from top of the lineup to the mop-up guy in the bullpen. Seager must stay healthy. deGrom needs to throw at least 100 innings to make his $185 million contract look remotely worth it.
Texas has the roster capable of making that big playoff run. The keys will just be health and fighting past the Astros.
