Before I dive into this too deeply, I want to make something extremely clear. Both the Mets and Yankees are struggling right now. However, the guys in the Bronx are in a much better spot than the dudes from Queens. But, hey — facts are facts, and when it comes to New York baseball teams right now, it ain’t pretty folks.
The Yankees are opening up a three-game set at home against the Seattle Mariners Tuesday night. They’re looking to get on track while figuring out how to win without Aaron Judge. That’s been hard thus far. They haven’t won consecutive games in nearly three weeks, are currently on a four-game losing streak, and have won just three times in their last 11 games.
As for the Mets? Phew, I don’t even want to get started with them. They just blew out the Astros on Monday, but they can’t even win a series against the St. Louis Cardinals, for goodness’ sake. Their 34-38 record is among the National League’s worst. Any hope that the Amazins can right the ship gets dimmer with each depressing week of baseball they produce.
Remember at the beginning of the year when Baseball Prospectus’ projections liked the chances of a World Series matchup between the Mets and Yankees? Yea, it feels like a million years ago to me, too.
The Yankees are entering Tuesday’s action with a 39-33 record. But there’s still a 10.5-game gap in the AL East between them and the Tampa Bay Rays. The Mets are four games under .500 and staring at a 12-game deficit in the NL East, as well as quite the climb in the Wild Card chase (five games out).
As we sit here today, the June swoon is in full effect for both teams. Just look at how much their respective odds of making the postseason have taken a hit over the past three weeks:
Largest shifts in playoff chances
since games of June 1
(according to FanGraphs):+25.2% Phillies
+24.4% Marlins
+24.0% Angels
+19.2% Orioles
+13.2% Giants
+11.4% Guardians-12.6% Twins
-13.2% Dodgers
-23.3% Yankees
-25.6% Cardinals
-30.4% Astros
-42.8% Mets— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 19, 2023
This was obviously tweeted out before Monday’s small slate of MLB games. So, there’s probably a slight shift since the original tweet was sent. But still, what in the world is going on here? It doesn’t help that the Phillies, Marlins, and Orioles are on the positive side of this stat.
What was supposed to be a fun year of baseball in the Big Apple is turning into more of a confusing headache. Like I said at the top of this article, the Yankees are in a much better spot than the Mets. Even with their recent struggles, they’re still holding onto a playoff spot. The Mets aren’t, and with the way they’ve played since the middle of April, they don’t deserve it one bit.
There’s still lots of baseball left to be played. Recent World Series participants have shown it’s possible to turn things around. Heck, even the 2016 Mets proved it can happen. They looked dead in the water (and under .500) around August 20th of that year and somehow got hot enough to grab a Wild Card spot.
But, the Mets actually have to do it, which hasn’t happened yet. And if the Yankees can’t find someone to step up during Judge’s absence, things will start to get harder for them, too.
You can reach Matt Musico at matt.musico@xlmedia.com. You can follow him on Twitter: @mmusico8.
