MLB free agency officially started the day after the World Series was over, but now it’s really started. Teams can start negotiating with external free agents, players have received qualifying offers, and options have been exercised or declined. A crucial offseason is ahead for both the Mets and Yankees, and now we get to see what they’ll actually do.
We’ve been compiling relevant contract predictions across the industry for top free agents from both squads, as well as some potential external targets. First, it was from the New York Post and then from FanGraphs. Now that free agency is fully open, MLB Trade Rumors released one of its most anticipated features each year. That’s right — their free-agent predictions are finally available.
You can look at it all here, but we’re going to round up some of the most important stuff below. That’ll include contract predictions and potential landing spots for Mets and Yankees players who played on those respective clubs in 2022. Then, we’ll take a look at the predictions for external free agents we know both the Amazins and Bombers have been connected to so far.
Each player listed will include their contract prediction and a tally of where the four MLBTR writers are predicting they’ll end up.
Mets free agents
Jacob deGrom: three years, $135 million
There are two votes for the Rangers, one for the Cardinals, and one for the Mets. We know New York has continued to stay in contact with deGrom, but who knows how much they’d be willing to pay to retain him?
Brandon Nimmo: five years, $110 million
Two votes for the Mets, one for the Astros, and one for the Giants. Based on how high in demand agent Scott Boras says he is, this contract number feels a little light.
Chris Bassitt: three years, $60 million
Two votes for the Twins, one for the Dodgers, and one for the Rangers. Mark Canha thinks he’ll be back with the Mets and liked his time in New York. He may be in the minority on those thoughts, I suppose.
Taijuan Walker: four years, $52 million
Two votes for the Padres, one each for the Orioles and Giants. The Mets didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Walker, which means New York won’t receive draft compensation if he signs elsewhere.
Michael Conforto: one year, $15 million
Two votes for the Red Sox and one each for the Rangers and Reds. I wish Scooter the best in 2023 and would like to see him play for a team that’s not the Mets.
Adam Ottavino: two years, $14 million
One vote each for the Phillies, Braves, Giants, and Red Sox. Ottavino will turn a one-year, $4 million deal into much more after a dominant year mostly being Edwin Diaz’s set-up man.
Yankees free agents
Aaron Judge: eight years, $332 million
All four votes for Judge had him re-signing with the Yankees. This prediction isn’t far from what ESPN’s Jeff Passan got from MLB executives. While it’d be the richest contract in franchise history, it shouldn’t be a problem for New York.
Jameson Taillon: four years, $56 million
Two votes for the Orioles and two for the Tigers. The Yankees have a spot to plug him back into the rotation, but we’ll see how motivated they are to do that.
Andrew Benintendi: four years, $54 million
One vote each for the Pirates, Rangers, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. His tenure in New York was cut short because of injury. If the Yankees miss out on Judge, maybe they try to bring Benintendi back into the fold.
Anthony Rizzo: two years, $36 million
All four think a return to the Yankees is happening. Outside of Judge, he was the major source of power for New York and brought championship experience from his days with the Cubs.
Mets, Yankees external free-agent targets
Trea Turner: eight years, $268 million
There were two votes for the Phillies, one for the Giants, and one for the Dodgers. It’s easy to see why the Mets would be interested in Turner, but it seems more of a fantasy than reality at this point.
Carlos Rodon: five years, $140 million
There are two votes for the Mets, one for the Rangers, and one for the Phillies. Outside of Justin Verlander and deGrom, Rodon is the next-best pitcher on the market. He’d be a likely pivot if the Mets can’t re-sign their ace.
Justin Verlander: three years, $120 million
Only two votes for the Astros, one for the Dodgers, and one for the Phillies. He’d technically fit on both the Mets and Yankees, but he’d make more sense for the Bombers.
Andrew Heaney: three years, $42 million
Two votes for the Mets and one each for the Cubs and Red Sox. He had a good year with the Dodgers, and his time with the Angels overlapped with Eppler’s tenure as general manager there.
Nathan Eovaldi: two years, $34 million
Three votes for the Red Sox and one for the Mets. Would be a solid backend of the rotation addition for a New York pitching staff that could use some reinforcements.
Rafael Montero: three years, $24 million
One vote each for the Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and White Sox. New York’s bullpen needs to get reloaded, so having a former top Mets prospect on the radar makes sense.
Jose Quintana: two years, $24 million
One vote each for the White Sox, Royals, Tigers, and Mets. Again, New York has three rotation spots to fill behind Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco. They’ll probably be looking at the second tier of the starting pitcher market closely.
David Robertson: two years, $16 million
Two votes for the Mets and one each for the Royals and Rockies. Outside of Edwin Diaz and Drew Smith, New York also needs to rebuild its bullpen.