When the Mets are able to get back to work at Citi Field…
The lockout continues which means the New York Mets‘ roster stands as it has since December 2nd. Although the new-look front office has already made a plethora of moves, there are certainly still holes in a very expensively built roster.
So, how does the current landscape of the team look? And what holes still exist?
The Hitters
Projecting the Lineup
- Brandon Nimmo, LF
- Starling Marte, CF
- Francisco Lindor, SS
- Pete Alonso, 1B
- Eduardo Escobar, 3B
- Robinson Cano, DH
- Mark Canha, RF
- James McCann, C
- Jeff McNeil, 2B
Of course, the lineup will largely depend on the opponent’s pitcher the Mets are facing that day. But the above should be a rough projection on what can be expected opening day. This if general manager Billy Eppler and the Mets were to make no further moves.
Projecting the Bench
- Dominic Smith, 1B/OF
- J.D. Davis, 3B/OF
- Luis Guillorme, 2B/3B
- Tomás Nido, C
As it stands, the Mets’ projected bench has at least two players that can easily be everyday players on some rosters. Of course, as the above lineup is set, this is if the Mets do not make any further moves. And as some rumors indicated, one of Davis and/or Smith may not even be with the Mets come opening day.
The Pitchers
Projecting the Rotation
- Jacob deGrom
- Max Scherzer
- Taijuan Walker
- Carlos Carrasco
- Tylor Megill/David Peterson
The addition of Max Scherzer certainly boosted a Mets’ rotation that saw the departure of a possible healthy Noah Syndergaard. The only other starter options the Mets have is a Trevor Williams and Jordan Yamamoto. Worth pointing out, Joey Lucchesi is not due back until at least September.
Projecting the Bullpen
- Miguel Castro (RHP)
- Yennsy Díaz (RHP)
- Edwin Díaz (RHP)
- Seth Lugo (RHP)
- Trevor May (RHP)
- Sean Reid-Foley (RHP)
- Drew Smith (RHP)
As you can see, the Mets’ currently projected bullpen is very right-handed heavy. Also, as evident, the Mets have not made any notable moves to address this area so far this offseason. Especially given the losses of Aaron Loup, Robert Gsellman, and possibly Jeurys Familia.
Evaluating the Major Needs
Last year, the Mets ranked 27th in runs per game, 13th in starting pitcher ERA, and ninth in bullpen ERA. Undoubtedly, hitting was an area of need and was ultimately addressed before the lockout began this offseason.
The Mets made three major splashes, signing Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha. With a full healthy season from Lindor and the addition of formerly suspended Cano, the Mets’ lineup and bench is as balanced as it has been in years.
This turns the attention to the pitching staff. As it stands, the Mets have lost Syndergaard, Rich Hill, Loup, and Gsellman. They are also projected to lose Familia and Brad Hand.
As the above shows, the starting pitching depth is lacking and there is not a single left-handed reliever on the team. These are the two areas that still need the most work.
Each of the Mets starting pitchers, besides Megill (4.69 FIP), listed above were injured and missed some time at one point last year.
When healthy, each Walker (7.13 ERA in the second half of the season), Carrasco (6.04 ERA), and Peterson (5.54 ERA) struggled. If the Mets wish to legitimately contend, adding at least one more starter is a must. This should also be at the top of the team’s post-lockout check list.
After the last rotation piece, the bullpen should not be far behind on this so-called check list. Although not in poor shape as it stands, Y. Díaz and Reid-Foley are not exactly established MLB-level arms. Furthermore, the Mets do not have a single left-handed reliever on the roster.
By bringing in another bullpen arm or two, New York can upgrade the group as it currently stands and bring more depth top-to-bottom. Like the rotation, having depth in the bullpen is almost as important.
How do the Mets address these needs?
Despite being late in the offseason, there are stills several different options on the free agent market. This due to the league-wide freeze as of December 2nd. Of course, there is also the trade route the Mets can pursue. However, let’s focus on the free agent market for now.
Luckily, a couple weeks ago I evaluated some of the choices that make the most sense for the Mets in terms of those starting pitchers that remain on the market. Names I discussed were Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Rodón, Zach Greinke, Matthew Boyd, Yusei Kikuchi, and Kwang Hyun Kim. You can read that article right here.
As for the bullpen, I examined left-handed reliever options for the Mets to pursue via free agency a couple weeks ago as well. Names I discussed were Andrew Chafin, Tony Watson, Chasen Shreve, Jake Diekman, among others. As you can see, overall the options are pretty sparse. Regardless, there are still some possible value adds. You can read that full article via this link.
If the Mets were to add a right-handed reliever the following pitchers still litter the market and would provide an immediate upgrade (in order of 2021 WAR): Collin McHugh, Kenley Jansen, Ryan Tepera, Jimmy Nelson, Steve Cishek, Brad Boxberger, Joe Kelly, Adam Ottavino, Chris Martin, Familia, among others. As you can see, there are still a large number of quality right-handed relievers on the market.
Arm-Chair General Manager
Well, you have the current 26-man roster projections as it stands. You also have the best remaining free agent options at the Mets’ perceived biggest needs. What is the best case scenario come post-lockout? This while trying to remain as realistic as possible:
The Lineup
- Brandon Nimmo, LF
- Starling Marte, CF
- Francisco Lindor, SS
- Pete Alonso, 1B
- Eduardo Escobar, 3B
- Robinson Cano, DH
- Mark Canha, RF
- James McCann, C
- Jeff McNeil, 2B
The Bench
- Dominic Smith, 1B/OF
- J.D. Davis, 3B/OF
- Luis Guillorme, 2B/3B
- Tomás Nido, C
The Rotation
- Jacob deGrom
- Max Scherzer
- Taijuan Walker
- Carlos Carrasco
- Yusei Kikuchi
The Bullpen
- CL: Edwin Díaz (RHP)
- Miguel Castro (RHP)
- Seth Lugo (RHP)
- Trevor May (RHP)
- Drew Smith (RHP)
- Adam Ottavino (RHP)
- Andrew Chafin (LHP)
Overall, the Mets are not far off. They had a great start to the offseason pre-lock out and addressed their most pressing need: the lineup. Now, they must continue adding and address their newest most pressing needs: a starting pitcher and a bullpen arm or two.
If the Mets are able to solidify their rotation with another signing of a starter-caliber pitcher, as well as bring more depth to the bullpen, this team can compete for a NL East title.
