With the Brooklyn Nets having disposed of the Milwaukee Bucks with relative ease in each of the first two games of this series in Brooklyn, the Bucks will need things to change in a hurry on their own home court here in Game 3. A 39 point rout in Game 2 followed an eight point loss in Game 1 and, yet, Milwaukee is still favored by a few points here in Game 3 with the change of venue.
Let’s take a deep dive into the different markets with our Game 3 Nets vs. Bucks betting pick, complete with the best odds, prop predictions, and analysis.
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The Nets will continue to be without the services of Jeff Green and superstar James Harden. However, they still managed to shoot a combined 49.5% from the field, 44.4% from 3-point range, and 87.5% from the foul line in the first two games. Can the Bucks find a way to slow Brooklyn down offensively or raise their own 24.5% long range shooting and 53.6% foul shooting in time to make this game and series a contest?
Milwaukee, the NBA’s best scoring team at over 120 points per game, has managed just 107 and 86 points in the first two games, resulting in two totals that were comfortably under the posted number for each game. After those results which stayed under by 17 or more points each, oddsmakers have tonight’s total currently resting around 234, which is roughly five points lower than Game 1 and Game 2. Will Milwaukee and Brooklyn finally produce a high-scoring affair like their last regular season meeting on this court that reached 242 total points (and, interestingly, still stayed under that game’s posted total)?
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Nets vs. Bucks Odds (June 10, 2021)
Here is the current line on Nets vs. Bucks Game 3 at DraftKings Sportsbook:
|CLIPPERS||+5 (-110)||+165||O 224 (-113)|
|SUNS||-5 (-110)||-200||U 224 (-109)|
Nets vs. Bucks Game 3 Pick
Joe Public will likely scoff at this selection as public bettors have gone to town on the Nets in Games 1 and 2 in this series and have been rewarded with two stress-free wins. In fact, Brooklyn has become the darling team for gamblers, winning and covering in six of seven games thus far in the Playoffs. Their hot streak extends further back, as well, having won and covered five straight to end the regular season on top of their postseason success.
However, if you are going to play against Brooklyn at any point in the near future, this is the spot to do so. A Game 2 Bucks wager had its merits, with Harden and Green out of the lineup and the Bucks needing a win to avoid coming home in the fashion they did, down 0-2. But, Brooklyn had other plans, as they earned a 17 point lead by the end of the first quarter, stealing Milwaukee’s ability to play downhill and in transition like they do when they are at their best.
The Bucks were able to be competitive in Game 1 because of 72 points in the paint. But, that was impossible to replicate in Monday’s loss when they were so far behind so early in the game. It forced the Bucks to the perimeter to try to catch up with the deep ball, but perimeter shooting has failed them in this series. Milwaukee went on to make just eight of 27 shots from beyond the arc (29.6%), while Brooklyn was busy making 21 of 42 from long range (50.0%).
We don’t expect nearly the same slow start from Milwaukee here at home, however. The Bucks have always proven a very tough home team in recent seasons. They are 28-10 thus far this season at the Fiserv Forum and defeated these Nets twice here in a back-to-back early in May. Interestingly, the home team in this series has won and covered all five head-to-head meetings this season.
They are fast starters at home, which is a big key to their success and also what is needed for them to keep it competitive against the Nets. They outscore opponents 62.7-55.6 in the first half here at home, giving them better than a seven point average lead at halftime. Overall this season, they average just a 4.4 point lead at halftime. Worth noting, Brooklyn on the road averaged less than a one-point lead at halftime, despite their dominant overall record.
The Nets have been vulnerable away from home this season at just 21-17, thus far. They have played just two road games since May 11, nearly a month, losing Game 3 in Boston to a team with far less depth and ability than this Bucks group. They are also just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine road games against Playoff teams this season.
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Brooklyn and Milwaukee were both effective on two days of rest this season, at 9-5 and 8-4 SU, respectively. However, the Nets showed a vulnerability when on that rest against an opponent on the same rest, going just 1-3 SU and ATS.
Milwaukee can also be expected to bounce back after the huge embarrassment in Game 2, based on evidence after bad losses this season. They are a solid 7-4 SU after double digit losses, but the true find comes in how they perform after losses by 20 points or more.
The Bucks have responded to those atrocities by going 4-0 in subsequent games and winning them by an average of 18.8 points per game. Oddly enough, Brooklyn lets down completely after blowing someone out by 20 or more this year. They are just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after a win by 20 or more.
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Brooklyn also struggles in the underdog role in certain aspects. The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a dog this season and have covered just two of their last nine tries when getting points in the Playoffs.
Nets vs. Bucks Game 3 Prediction
Milwaukee has covered six of their last seven home games against teams with winning road records. And, if it wasn’t for the brainwashing from the first two games of this series, the public might recall that the Bucks still own the Nets historically. Entering this series, Milwaukee had lost just 11 times against the spread in their last 41 head-to-head meetings with the Nets franchise.
Expect the game to start and end differently for Milwaukee tonight as they look like a completely different team on their home court.
Our Pick: Milwaukee -3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -110)
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