The NBA Draft Lottery is always a big night for the New York Knicks and there are a few ways this year can shake out.
Another year, another night of watching ping pong balls in the NBA Draft Lottery for New York Knicks fans. This has become a routine for the Knicks in recent years and fans know all too well that the orange and blue have bad luck when it comes to the lottery.
Will this year be different? It could be, but some fans are actually hoping the Knicks don’t blow all their lottery luck on this year when the 2021 class is poised to have an insane amount of talent.
Putting aside karma and mojo, climbing in the lottery is always a good thing. It gives teams more options to draft and also opens up the possibility of trading down or out to acquire more assets.
With the 2020 NBA Draft Lottery set for 8:30 p.m. ET and team president Leon Rose will represent the Knicks in this year’s virtual setting. Here’s what the odds are looking like for the Knicks.
Knicks 2020 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
No. 1 — 9.0%
No. 2 — 9.2%
No. 3 — 9.4%
No. 4 — 9.6%
No. 6 — 8.6%
No. 7 — 29.8%
No. 8 — 20.6%
No. 9 — 3.7%
No. 10 — 0.1%
The Glass Is Half Full
Alright, so let’s look at these lottery odds in two ways. First, the glass half full method (which admittedly, is not the standard operating procedure for Knicks fans).
The Knicks have a 37.2% chance to move up from six in the draft. There isn’t a consensus on who should go first overall so even if the Knicks don’t land the first-overall pick, there’s a chance they can still land their top target, whoever that may be.
Additionally, a move up in the draft would give the Knicks more options this offseason. If trading for a star is in the cards this offseason, a top-four pick looks a little better than somewhere in the bottom half of the top 10. Again, this year’s class is considered weaker than most years, but there are still intriguing options at the top of the board.
The Glass Is Half Empty
Here’s the glass-half-empty view: Despite possessing a 37.2% chance at moving up in the lottery, the Knicks have a 54.2% chance of sliding back. It’s essentially a coin flip as to whether or not the Knicks will fall back in a weak draft.
That means that in one fell swoop the Knicks could fall out of the running for guys like LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, and Deni Avdija. Meanwhile, if the pick falls to Nos. 7 or 8, it becomes far less enticing in a trade for a star.
It’s certainly possible that the Knicks drop in the draft and land a big-time player, but it’s decidedly less likely at that spot.
The Glass Is Shattered
No, this scenario isn’t even referencing the 0.1% chance that the Knicks fall to pick No. 10. In fact, this scenario would involve the Knicks moving up in the draft.
This year’s draft process is already so much different than ever before. Right now, teams are limited to game film and virtual Zoom meetings in the scouting process. Simply put, scouting this year’s draft class isn’t easy.
If the Knicks move up in the draft but pass on another star, fans will have to listen to years of “I can’t believe the Knicks passed on Player X” from people who live to troll the Knicks.