New York Jets offensive line: What to watch for down the stretch

With six games remaining for the New York Jets, weak units will be evaluated. Here’s what to watch for concerning the offensive line.

The New York Jets offensive line is a unit in shambles. The struggles of this group have been at the forefront of a myriad of factors that have crumbled the Jets offense around Sam Darnold.

What should we look out for from each starter over the final stretch?

Left Tackle Kelvin Beachum

Beachum, 29 today and 30 at the start of next season, is an interesting case. Left tackle is arguably the most important position along the offensive line—though it seems more and more each year that the opposite can be argued and that all positions up front are more or less equal.

Regardless, left tackle remains a premium spot where quality talent is tough to acquire. Beachum is no stalwart, but he has done a decent enough job holding the position down in his two years as a Jet. I have him down for a 7.9 percent pressure rate allowed this season, which is strong for a left tackle (the average rate for tackles is about 9.0 percent).

Beachum, who stands at only 6-foot-3, has less than adequate size for the position. Much because of that, he’s struggled with penalties this year (line-leading seven) and preventing pass deflections at the line (team-high four allowed). He’s also a poor run blocker.

The good news is that the Jets have team-friendly control of Beachum in 2019. The team can cut him at any point prior to the start of the regular season and take only a $1.5M hit in dead-cap while wiping out the other $8M of his potential $9.5M total hit. This is great for the team. If they can find a younger, better option in free agency or the draft, they can move on from Beachum. If not, they have him under wraps to bring another solid season on the left side.

You can do a lot worse than Beachum. He is a tremendous match for speedy edge rushers with his athletic ability. I’m interested to see him take on Jadaveon Clowney and the Texans in Week 15. Beachum was stellar against Bradley Chubb, Von Miller, and the Broncos back in Week 5. If Beachum can maintain his current level of play throughout the final six weeks, there’s a good shot he will remain the team’s starter at left tackle in 2019.

Left Guard James Carpenter

I just gushed about Beachum, but now we can officially begin the complaining you expected to see.

Carpenter, currently 29 and 30 in March, is the oldest lineman on the Jets, and also the most experienced (drafted by Seattle in 2011).

That is clearly starting to show.

When Carpenter arrived at the Jets in 2015, he was one of their best offensive players, as he thrived in the primarily man-blocking running scheme the Jets were running. It was a perfect suit for the 6-foot-4, 321-pound Carpenter, whose game is predicated entirely on man-to-man power.

Last season, the Jets switched to a zone-based running scheme. It never seemed like a good fit to have Carpenter play in that style, but the Jets could never find a better option, so he has stuck around since. He clearly has not been a fit.

In addition to his lack of fit in that scheme, age is clearly catching up to Carpenter. He was a great pass protector in his first two years as a Jet. Even that facet of his game has dropped off. I have him tagged for a 6.5 percent pressure rate this year, below average for a guard. That includes five sacks and five quarterback hits for a total of 10 knockdowns, tied for the team lead with another guard we will soon get to.

A free agent after the season, Carpenter’s days are numbered.

Let’s hope for Sam Darnold’s sake that Carpenter can at least put in a few flashes of pristine pass protection. He’s done it at times this year. He’s had four games this season with only one allowed pressure or less.

The struggles have come in bunches for Carpenter—his worst has been very, very bad.

Center Spencer Long

The Jets entered the offseason with a clear need at center after Wesley Johnson struggled mightily last year. It was a strong market, but the team missed out on top targets Ryan Jensen (signed with Tampa Bay) and Weston Richburg (signed with San Francisco).

They settled on the former Redskin in Long, who had built a reputation in Washington as a strong pass protector who struggled with run blocking and also had nagging injury issues.

Long, who started out his NFL career as a guard, had only started 18 games as a center in the pros. There was some hope that the 28-year old perhaps had some untapped potential left in the tank considering he only had barely one season’s worth of starts at center under his belt.

Instead, everything that could have gone wrong, has gone wrong.

Long still can’t run block. He generates zero power off the ball and is slow to his spot in the lateral run game, making him a liability in outside zone runs. He really struggles to get out on the second level, as he is very poor at hitting his spots in the open field.

Maybe he would still bring adequate pass protection for the Jets’ prized young passer? Nope. I have Long tagged for a 4.8 percent pressure percentage allowed this season—atrocious for a center (average is around 3 percent). For comparison, that puts him on pace to allow more pressures than Wesley Johnson did last season.

Long has allowed three sacks, more than he allowed in his entire stint as the starting center in Washington. In addition, he’s racked up five penalties.

Worst and taking the most attention has been the snapping issue. It started out against Minnesota, and after taking a game off in Chicago, Long returned for a visit to Miami. He was fine in the first half, but in the second half, he launched 15 bad shotgun snaps on passing attempts. 15! It’s rare to see two bad shotgun snaps in a game, let alone 15.

Darnold’s effectiveness took a major, major hit on those plays, as his sack rate multiplied by ten and his yards per attempt was cut into a quarter.

Todd Bowles inexplicably waited until the very end of the game to pull Long despite having a healthy backup in Jonotthan Harrison. Long’s clear health issue and Bowles’ stubbornness cost the Jets this game and endangered the physical well-being of their most valuable player.

Long can be cut next season with absolutely zero dead cap, as the Jets can wipe his entire $6.5M salary off the books. There is almost nothing Long can do over the final six games to avoid this fate. He’s somehow given the team even worse production at center, something that could not have been considered conceivable.

Look for the Jets to cut Long and explore the free agent market for yet another new center.

Right Guard Brian Winters

Winters is the biggest enigma on this line. Pro Football Focus lauds him, and there are numerous offensive line guru Twitter accounts that love to post his highlights.

I’ll give Winters this: his best is beautiful. When he has it going, he can pummel people like few others can. The guy has pound-for-pound power.

However, you need to look past the highlights and focus on his entire body of work. For Winters, that body of work is quite terrible. I have Winters down for a staggeringly bad 8.8 percent pressure rate allowed this season, brutal for a guard and the worst among the offensive front. I have him tagged for a team-high six sacks.

In the run game, the Jets give Winters a lot of tough assignments to cover for James Carpenter. He is used as a pull blocker quite a bit, and this is a difficult job. Regardless, Winters still has not produced as a run blocker and is right there with Long and Carpenter as a primary culprit for this unit’s terrible run blocking this season. Winters is yet another starter who consistently loses the battle off the ball and generates little push to carve holes. While very athletic, which flashes on his pulls and moves to the second level, he consistently fails to hit his spots and run efficient routes to defenders to seal in space.

I have Winters tagged for 18 rushing assists and 19 stuffs allowed, making him the only offensive linemen with more stuffs allowed than assists (average ratio is about 2:1, which only one starter is above).

The Jets are very likely moving on from Carpenter and Long.

Considering how hard it is to find three quality starting linemen, I think Winters has a good shot of staying. With that in mind, I really want to see some improved performance from him over the rest of the year. Pass protection is what I will be looking at most closely. He’s been poor there in almost every game this year, save for three games in which the opponents brought light pressure.

Keep an eye on Winters and see if he can do a better job handling stunts and 1-on-1 matchups with good pass rushing defensive tackles who win with power—Winters consistently is bull-rushed into the backfield. Can he adjust?

Right Tackle Brandon Shell

Now that we’ve run through the sprinkler with the three interior turnstiles, now we can get to my favorite player on this offensive line—Mike Maccagnan draft pick Brandon Shell.

Maccagnan has had four drafts with this franchise, and Shell is the only linemen on the roster drafted by Maccagnan. Jarvis Harrison is Maccagnan’s only other selection, and he never played a game for the team.

The 6-foot-5, 324-pound Shell, 26, is a prototype right tackle. He’s long, athletic, and strong enough to handle the power teams throw at him on the right side. He’s flashed as a pass protector since his first stint as starter towards the end of 2016, but run blocking has always been the question. Shell has struggled mightily to gain leverage and win matchups off the snap (getting a theme here?) in the run game.

While still not a good run blocker, Shell has improved enough in that phase this year to the point that his pass protection pushes him ahead as a decent to solid starter. I have Shell tagged for 23 rushing assists and a line-low nine stuffs allowed this season, for the best ratio across the starting front. The Jets have gotten Shell out on the move off the edge quite a bit, making use of his athleticism. He’s done a much better job closing and finishing on defenders.

In pass protection, he has shined this year. I have him down for a 7.4 percent pressure rate allowed, best on the team relative to position. That includes only three sacks, very solid for a player at this position.

Shell is a great matchup for speedy outside linebackers. He knows how to use his length to allow those types of rushers to run themselves out of the play. He has also improved with his handling of bull rushes, which was previously a weakness.

The Jets have faced three defenses this year ranked top-10 in sack rate—the Vikings (fourth), Broncos (sixth), and Bears (ninth). Granted, Khalil Mack missed the Bears game, but in those three contests, Shell allowed a grand total of only four pressures and just one sack.

Shell has had a pair of atrocious games this year—against the Jaguars and in Miami against the Dolphins. His greatest nemeses in those games were now-Ram Dante Fowler Jr. and known Jet-killer Cameron Wake. Shell has been susceptible to a couple of moves in particular that those two rushers killed him with—the inside spin and the outside dip.

Tweener defensive ends who can combine power with strong technique can beat Shell. He opens up very wide to the outside and can be beaten inside by players with a good array of moves. Outside, players like Wake who are strong enough to fend him off with good hands can dip underneath his outside shoulder.

Shell bounced back strong from both of those down games, getting red hot after the Jaguars debacle and playing well against the Bills following his struggles in Miami. I want to see if Shell can keep that up. Every lineman has bad games now and then. The primary factor that separates the good ones from the replaceable ones is the ability to avoid letting struggles snowball.

Barring anything unforeseen, Shell is going to start at right tackle for the Jets in 2019. He is the only player on this line with a chance to be an above average starter for this team in 2020 and beyond and is one of the only homegrown offensive players the Jets have that has shown promise. I’m excited to see if he can continue to grow over the rest of the season.