The New York Mets could be sellers when comes the trade deadline but could get good value for reliever Addison Reed.The New York Mets have played better baseball over the past week. However, they are still very much inclined to be sellers when comes the trade deadline. Reliever Addison Reed should garner the interest of many teams in the playoff race.
Should the standings remain similar to what they are between now and July 31st, about half the teams in Major League Baseball will be inclined to sell. The other half that remain in contention could look to bolster their rosters.
One of the most vital aspects of a team in today’s game is the bullpen, evidenced by last year’s Indians, the 2014-15 Royals, and the San Francisco Giant teams that have won three championships since 2010. For years, superior starting pitching was the blueprint for a championship roster. Now, bullpens reign supreme.
Regardless of who is on the market or the current shape of team’s bullpen, Addison Reed should net the Mets a nice prospect or two in return. He won’t warrant the type of haul the Yankees scored for Andrew Miller last summer, but his value is strong enough to bring back a legitimate return.
Reed has experience as a closer, with over 100 career saves to his name. He’s also been excellent since taking over as the set up man in Queens. Reed posted career bests in ERA, FIP, WHIP, WAR, strikeouts, and innings pitched in 2016. He’s followed it up with a strong 2017 which should cement his second best season as a reliever. In today’s game, you can never have enough good arms in the ‘pen.
The Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians both had strong bullpens before they acquired Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller in 2016. That trend could continue for teams with World Series aspirations like the Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox and dare we say it–the rival Nationals, too.
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Reed is a rental and will enter unrestricted free agency after the season. However, he’ll be owed less than $4 million after July ends and should fit the budget of most contending teams. Reed’s career 3.45 ERA doesn’t reflect dominance, but at age 28, is in the prime of his career and hasn’t pitched better since coming to New York. Somewhere, pitching coach Dan Warthen smiles.
Advanced metrics also favor Reed. His career 3.08 FIP suggest he’s actually pitched better than his ERA suggests. His career 9.6 K/9 compared to just 2.3 BB/9 emulate solid command. Inconsistent walk ratios are a nightmare for managers but Reed hasn’t had much difficulty finding the strike zone.
He’s also been successful against left handed batters. In fact, from 2014-16, Reed has held lefties to just a .226 AVG, compared to .245 against righties, per ESPN. His strikeout and walk numbers are better against right handers, though (118K’s vs 93 and 17BB compared to 30). However you want to interpret it, Reed can batters out regardless of which side of the plate they stand on.
He won’t light up the radar gun with a fastball that reaches the upper-90s, but his above average command, good breaking ball and ability to work both sides of the plate make Reed an ideal candidate for the back end of a bullpen.
Fans of the New York Mets may be sad to see one of their few effective relievers be traded, but he can be had again in the offseason. The same scenario worked out well for Chapman and the Yankees, didn’t it?