Luke Weaver: Struggling reliever or simply cooked?

People took notice when the New York Mets gave Luke Weaver, a setup man, a two-year, $22 million contract in free agency.

Now, with Weaver posting a 6.00 ERA after blowing the lead in Thursday’s 5-4 loss to Washington, the deal looks like a straight head-scratcher.

It’s not as though the veteran righty didn’t deserve to get paid. Weaver earned that. He was a key piece of the Yankees’ run to the AL Pennant in 2024, earning the closer’s job for the playoffs. The key to his revival was simple, especially after Weaver struggled to stay healthy with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks earlier in his career. Pitching coach Matt Blake adjusted his grip on the ball, and Weaver was suddenly generating about two mph more on his pitches, particularly the fastball and cutter.

Weaver declined a little bit in ’25 between playoff fatigue and other injuries, but still posted a 3.62 ERA and 2.94 FIP.

Unfortunately, that’s where the solid numbers end for Weaver. His inflated ERA is paired with an even worse 5.05 FIP. His ground ball rate is at 45.5%, the best it’s been in four years, but his strikeout rate (K%) is nearly cut in half. He’s only posting 5.73 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) after a healthier 10.02 mark in 2025.

So what’s the problem? Well, there are a few. Most notably, looking at FanGraphs, the velocity on both his cutter and changeup is down almost a full mile per hour. His fastball velocity is down too, over half-a-mile per hour.

However, the real tell is in Weaver’s plus-stats. These are broken down into three categories. There’s Stuff-plus (Stuff+), which measures everything on a pitch from velocity to break to spin to angles to etc. Location+, essentially, measures a pitcher’s overall command of the strike zone. Pitching+, a stat which comes about as close to measuring baseball’s human element as one can get, judges in-game decision making.

Now, each of these stats has a baseline average of 100, so where does that leave Luke Weaver?

Sorry, folks, but it’s not great news. Weaver’s Location+ for his career is 105 and his Pitching+ is 100, but his Stuff+? A lowly 94.

In Weaver’s defense, these numbers are still very new. Plus-stats can only be measured as far back as 2020, right when Weaver’s struggles took over. He had a 5.95 ERA and 4.77 FIP from 2020-23.

Yet, we should note that after posting 104 Stuff+ in 2020, it’s gotten progressively worse for Luke Weaver since. That number fell to 92 in 2021 and ’22, and a horrific 86 in ’23. All while he still showed solid command of the zone and made good choices on the mound. Weaver averaged an exact 100 Pitching+ over that three-year stretch and 107 Location+.

The strange part is Weaver’s plus-numbers weren’t overwhelmingly better with the Yankees. His Stuff+ in 2024 was a clean 100 before dipping to 97 in ’25. Weaver’s Pitching and Location+ hovered within two points above or below average.

Anyway, I digress. What does this mean for Luke Weaver, turning 33 in August and with a year left on his deal? Well, there’s still room for him to turn things around, but don’t count on it. The velocity is already dipping and his pitches don’t have a ton of movement on them. His game is overcoming that to throw strikes and put hitters away.

Except, as we noted, Weaver’s strikeouts are down nearly half this season. Could it be that the Yankees sensed a limited window with his cutter and thus didn’t make an effort to re-sign him?

Only time will tell but at this point? The Mets should pray for Weaver improving just so they can move him more easily at July’s deadline.