Giants vs. Cowboys: Trends, Picks, Predictions, and Key Matchups for Road Trip to the Big D
- The Dallas Cowboys are 4.5-point home favorites over the New York Giants in this NFC East rivalry game.
- Dallas has won eight straight games against New York and is 6-2 against the spread in those contests.
An old NFC East rivalry gets a fresh look in Week 2 as the Cowboys host the Giants, with both teams looking to avoid a dreadful 0-2 start. Records being what they are, the narrative is starkly different for the two squads. Dallas is aiming to re-establish its home-field dominance after a narrow Week 1 loss, while the Giants are simply trying to find an offensive pulse after a dismal opening performance, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
The quarterback matchup pits Dak Prescott against Russell Wilson. Prescott was efficient in his return from injury, completing 21 of 34 passes for 188 yards without a turnover. On the other sideline, Wilson and the Giants offense sputtered, with the veteran quarterback completing just 17-of-37 passes for 168 yards in a 21-6 loss. The Cowboys have owned this series recently, and early betting lines reflect an expectation that the trend will continue.
Kickoff is scheduled for Sunday, September 14th, at 1:00 p.m. from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. The game will be broadcast nationally on FOX. As the game is being played inside a dome, weather will not be a factor, with perfect conditions expected for this early-season contest.
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys Odds
| Bet Type | New York Giants | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-101) | -4.5 (-120) |
| Moneyline | +210 | -250 |
| Total Points | Over 45.5 (+100) | Under 45.5 (-120) |
Odds as of September 14th, 2025 from ESPN Bet.
The odds paint a clear picture of the Cowboys as strong home favorites. The -250 moneyline implies a 71.4% probability of a Dallas victory. After removing the vig, the Cowboys’ true win probability sits at approximately 68.9%, with the Giants at 31.1%. The betting trends heavily favor Dallas, who are 16-2 straight up in their last 18 games as a home favorite. Conversely, the Giants have struggled mightily, going 2-11 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13 games and failing to cover in their last six road contests.
Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting market has shown strong support for the Dallas Cowboys since lines opened. While the spread has held steady at -4.5, the moneyline has seen significant movement, with Dallas shifting from an opener of -189 to a much steeper -250. This indicates that a majority of the money is backing a comfortable Cowboys victory. The total has also ticked up a full point from 44.5 to 45.5, suggesting some expectation for points, which aligns with a powerful trend where the over has hit in 13 of the Cowboys’ last 16 home games as a favorite.
The sharp money appears to have driven the Cowboys’ price up, draining much of the early value. The current spread of -4.5 is a key number, but given the Giants’ abysmal road and underdog performance (0-5 ATS in their last 5 as road underdogs), laying the points with Dallas remains the most logical angle based on line movement and historical data.
Injury Report
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Fantasy/Betting Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DaRon Bland | CB | foot | Out | A significant loss for the Cowboys secondary, increasing pressure on Trevon Diggs. |
| Andrew Thomas | T | Foot | Doubtful | Potentially devastating for a Giants offensive line that already struggles with protection. |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | ankle | Questionable | His absence would limit the Giants’ short-passing game and reliable check-down options. |
| Dexter Lawrence II | DL | personal | Probable | A massive blow to the Giants’ run defense if he cannot play. |
| Micah McFadden | LB | foot | Out | Hurts the depth of the Giants’ linebacker corps and run-stopping ability. |
Key Matchups to Watch
Quarterback vs Pass Defense
Dak Prescott (76.6 QB rating) wasn’t spectacular in Week 1 but was steady and avoided mistakes. He faces a Giants pass defense that allowed a 98.3 QB rating and will be without key pieces. The bigger story is on the other side. Russell Wilson posted a dismal 59.3 QB rating, looking out of sync with his receivers. He now faces a Cowboys secondary that, while missing DaRon Bland, still has a ball-hawking corner in Trevon Diggs and a pass rush that should feast on a battered offensive line. The advantage here is heavily in Dallas’ favor.
Running Game vs Run Defense
This is the most significant mismatch of the game. The Cowboys’ offense, led by Javonte Williams, averaged a robust 5.4 yards per carry in their opener. They are facing a Giants run defense that was absolutely gashed for 220 yards on the ground at an alarming 6.9 yards per carry. Expect Dallas to establish the run early and often to control the clock and set up play-action. The Giants’ ground game was equally ineffective, managing just 3.2 yards per carry against a stout front. They’ll find little room to run against the Cowboys’ defensive line.
Pass Catchers vs Secondary
CeeDee Lamb is the alpha in this matchup. He’s a premier route-runner who should have no trouble creating separation against the Giants’ secondary. For New York, rookie Malik Nabers is the lone bright spot, but he’ll likely draw bracket coverage as the Cowboys key in on stopping the only legitimate threat in the Giants’ passing attack. Outside of Nabers, New York lacks the weapons to consistently challenge a talented Dallas secondary.
Offensive Line vs Pass Rush
The potential absence of Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas is a game-changer. Without him, an already porous offensive line becomes a liability. The Cowboys’ front four should be able to generate consistent pressure on Russell Wilson without needing to blitz. Conversely, the Cowboys’ offensive line remains one of the league’s better units in pass protection and should have little trouble handling a Giants pass rush that is overly reliant on Brian Burns.
Passing Props
| PLAYER | PASSING YARDS | PASSING TDs | COMPLETIONS | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 250.5 (O -114 / U -113) | 1.5 (O -147 / U +111) | 22.5 (O -108 / U -121) | 0.5 (O -121 / U -109) |
| Russell Wilson (NYG) | 211.5 (O -113 / U -114) | 1.5 (O +141 / U -187) | 19.5 (O -152 / U +107) | 0.5 (O -109 / U -121) |
Rushing & Receiving Props
| PLAYER | RUSHING YARDS | RECEIVING YARDS | RECEPTIONS | ANYTIME TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 53.5 (O -115 / U -111) | 14.5 (O -112 / U -116) | 2.5 (O -107 / U -123) | Yes -121 / No N/A |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | N/A | 78.5 (O -114 / U -112) | 6.5 (O -127 / U -103) | Yes -103 / No N/A |
| Tyrone Tracy (NYG) | 54.5 (O -111 / U -116) | 14.5 (O -114 / U -116) | 2.5 (O -115 / U -114) | Yes +143 / No N/A |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | N/A | 76.5 (O -114 / U -115) | 6.5 (O +100 / U -132) | Yes +130 / No N/A |
NFL player props as of September 14th, 2025 from consensus.
Picks & Prediction
This NFC East clash appears to be a classic mismatch on paper, and the on-field product should reflect that. The primary factor driving our prediction is the cavernous gap between the two offensive lines. The Dallas Cowboys’ front should bulldoze a Giants defensive line that was just shredded on the ground, allowing them to control the tempo and wear down the defense. This will open up the play-action pass for Dak Prescott, who has historically dissected this Giants team. With CeeDee Lamb presenting a matchup nightmare for New York’s secondary, the Cowboys should move the ball with ease.
Conversely, the Giants’ offense is in shambles. Their offensive line is decimated by injury and was already a weak point. Against a formidable Cowboys pass rush, Russell Wilson will be running for his life, preventing any downfield passing game from developing. The Giants’ inability to establish a run game will make them one-dimensional and predictable.
While the Cowboys have a strong trend of hitting the over at home, the Giants’ offensive ineptitude is too profound to ignore. They scored just six points in Week 1 and are facing a superior defense. Dallas will likely build a comfortable lead and then lean on their ground game to bleed the clock. The Cowboys have dominated this series, winning eight straight and covering the spread in six of those contests. The Giants are also on a dreadful 0-6 ATS run on the road. All signs point to a comfortable, methodical victory for the home team.
Picks:
- Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-120)
- Under 45.5 (-120)
- CeeDee Lamb Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Recent History: New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys have utterly dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning the last eight consecutive meetings against the New York Giants. Their success isn’t just on the scoreboard; it’s at the betting window as well. Dallas is an impressive 6-2 against the spread during this winning streak, consistently outperforming market expectations. The Giants have not won a game at AT&T Stadium since 2020, and their recent performances suggest that streak of futility is in serious jeopardy of continuing.
disclaimer: AI helped with this story, though most of it was written by a human
