NY Yankees at Boston Red Sox: The Fenway Redemption

The New York Yankees, for some reason or another, cannot solve the blood rival Boston Red Sox this season. Worse yet, they haven’t won a game at Fenway Park this season.

Now, with three games remaining over a brutal 12-game stretch that’s seen the Bronx Bombers go 5-4 thus far, everything is on the line. The Yankees are second in the AL East and trail first-place Toronto by three games. Third-place Boston only trails by 3.5 games.

Actual playoff positioning is on the line and with the highest of stakes. The Yankees need to treat this weekend as three individual Game 7s, starting Friday.

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: Apple TV+

Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-130), O/U 8.5

Key Storyline: Fenway Park, Final Boss Edition. The one good thing about the Yankees’ getting swept at Fenway Park back in June is that it was a close series, start to finish. Boston outscored New York 8-4 across three games. It wasn’t so much that the Yankees were playing bad baseball from the start, but this was the beginning of a team-wide batting slump.

Now, with the season potentially on the line, the Yankees need to come out literally swinging. No foolish mistakes in the field, no bad at-bats. This is about going into Fenway Park and seizing what’s left of the narrative. The Red Sox might have won the season series, but the Yankees? Always the better team.

Pitching Matchup: Luis Gil (3-1, 3.33 ERA) vs Lucas Giolito (10-3, 3.38 ERA). What a turnaround for Giolito. He signed with the Red Sox ahead of 2024, missed a season with elbow surgery, and looked in for a rough go this season. He had a 6.42 ERA headed into his start on June 10, and is 9-2 with a 2.33 ERA since. This includes 4.2 innings of three-run ball in a no-decision at Yankee Stadium on August 21.

Gil, by contrast, has pitched well despite himself. His 3.31 ERA and 4.13 FIP are paired with a 4.89 xERA and 5.57 xFIP. It’s all because he’s allowing nearly six walks per nine innings. He allowed five against Boston back on August 21, though Gil does own a 1.27 career ERA against the Sox. Giolito allows 3.2 BB/9 of his own, so the pitcher who wins the control game could win the actual game.

X-Factor: Aaron Judge. It’s no secret that Judge, despite being the best hitter in baseball, struggles at Fenway Park. He’s only a .203 hitter despite it being built for his swing and, in fairness, he’s hit 13 home runs there. Even so, between Fenway and Daikin Park in Houston (.211 lifetime average), Judge seems to have a problem when visiting top rivals’ stadiums.

Case in point, Judge is batting .083 at Fenway this season. Forget that the 1 in 1 for 12 is a solo home run. Where Aaron Judge goes, the rest of the Yankees lineup follows. And if the captain can’t steer the ship into Boston Harbor? It’s anyone’s guess who, if anyone, takes the helm.

Prediction. If you’re in a betting mood and on New York sports betting apps or New Jersey online casinos, bet Boston on Friday. Giolito has a 1.42 ERA in three starts since facing the Yankees last month and Gil’s increased walks aren’t going away anytime soon. Granted, Boston’s offense is fairly middle of the pack, but ranks first in BABIP at .307. Add Gil being a fastball-dominant pitcher, and Boston capitalizes on balls left up in the zone. No Roman Anthony? No problem! Red Sox 7, Yankees 3