Garrett Crochet pitched the Red Sox to a 10-7 victory over the Yankees, far beyond what we expected from Saturday’s tilt. Even in defeat, the Bronx Bombers tagged the big lefty for five earned runs in six innings.
The defeat also cut the Yankees’ AL East lead to 4.5 games over the rival Blue Jays. This mean’s Sunday’s game might not just be a rubber match. It might be a wakeup call that the gap closing isn’t the mirage it seems.
Lucky for the Yankees, the lineup showed on Saturday that win or lose, it can keep games interesting. DJ LeMahieu turned back the clock before turning in another two-hit game, including a two-run single that upped his wRC+ to 94.
Can the Yankees take the series with one of their more reliable arms toeing the slab?
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-225 ML), O/U 7.5
Key Storyline: Bronx and Boston bats collide. Hitting has been the name of the game this entire series with both the Yankees and Red Sox scoring a combined 32 runs. Both teams have shown signs of life late in each of their losses this weekend. There really is a truth to the Red Sox playing the Yankees harder despite being under .500.
Add the adrenaline of a nationally televised Sunday game, and the bats are bound to explode in one direction or the other. That means when it comes to New York sports betting apps, bet the over tonight.
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Dobbins (2-1, 4.06 ERA) vs Carlos Rodon (8-3, 2.49 ERA). This is truly a hard matchup to predict on paper. Boston’s lineup has hit .275 against lefties this year compared to .247 versus right-handers. Carlos Rodon, meanwhile, has turned in an ace-caliber season thus far and he also owns pretty respectable numbers against Boston. In nine starts, the Yankees’ steel-veined southpaw is 4-4 with a 3.83 ERA against the Sawx.
Boston answers with the rookie Dobbins, their No. 13 prospect. He’s a majority ground ball pitcher, but leans heavily on his fastball and slider. He does not throw a sinker of any kind. That means New York’s approach remains unchanged from Saturday: if it’s up in the zone, take a swing.
X-Factor: Aaron Judge. The Yankee captain was 0 for 4 with three strikeouts on Saturday compared to a three-hit night on Monday. He’s still batting an MLB-leading .390. However, it’s been noticeable throughout Judge’s career that the lineup just performs better if he too is at his best.
This isn’t to say the Yankees live and die by Judge’s bat. However, if he could get the ball rolling in the first inning by serving Dobbins a “Welcome to the big leagues” moment, that could be all the momentum the Yankees need.
Prediction: It might not be the prettiest win, but Rodon on the mound means the Yankees take the rubber game. He already has a 2.0 WAR on the year and his 98 strikeouts rank third in the American League. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have the fourth-worst strikeout rate (K%) in baseball at 23.6%.
That means if you’re betting, the Yankees run line and the over seems smart along with a Judge parlay.
