5 predictions for the Yankees 2026 season

The New York Yankees kick off their 2026 season and quest for a 28th World Series against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. It’s not just a new season, but a new era of sports broadcasting with streaming platform Netflix streaming the game. Coverage starts at 7 pm ET with the first pitch slated for 8 pm, and former Yankee CC Sabathia being on color commentary alongside former Giant Hunter Pence should make for some entertaining television.

The Yankees are largely running it back in 2026 after being a Wild Card team last year, and then losing to the AL East champs and eventual American League champion Toronto Blue Jays in the ALDS. And yet, this is a team that looks motivated as can be. Not even injuries to two key pitchers and a former top prospect can deter the Bronx Bombers.

But as we’re well aware, the AL East is still the hardest-hitting division in baseball and more competitive than people think. The Blue Jays still have a stacked lineup despite a shaky pitching staff. The Red Sox, who always play the Yankees harder, made their own maneuvers. Baltimore’s bats are one collective bounceback season from being surprise contenders, and they’ve even added Pete Alonso for good measure. The Rays are…well, they’re the Rays.

2026 has every chance to be a Yankees revenge arc. Here are some predictions for what could happen along the way.

Gerrit Cole finishes Top 5 in Cy Young voting…

The Yankees ace and former Cy Young winner is a year removed from Tommy John surgery and based on his recent returns to the mound? One would never know he had his elbow reconstructed. Cole averaged 96.3 mph on his fastball and even touched 97 and 98 in two short spring appearances. He’ll now remain on the injured list and build up arm strength before returning in late April, maybe early May.

Now, consider how far Tommy John surgery has come in the last 50 years. Particularly the bracing procedure that has shortened recovery from 12-18 months to more 9-12 months. It’s not entirely uncommon for pitchers to come back better and stronger, particularly if they threw hard to begin with. Just ask Cole’s former teammate Justin Verlander, who had one of his best seasons in 2022 at age 39 despite missing the prior year with Tommy John.

Thus, assuming Gerrit Cole comes back looking like the Gerrit Cole of old? The Yankees can breathe easy knowing he’s taking the ball every fifth day. He should have no trouble staying in the Cy Young conversation, either as a favorite or dark horse.

…while Will Warren is an All-Star.

Will Warren turned plenty of heads last season, even as he went through growing pains. Not even the bad kind, either. He was a rookie pitcher with a killer sinker and sweeper, but who needed more confidence in his fastball. Warren understood the assignment, switched to the third-base side of the rubber, and the results spoke for themselves. He had a 1.42 ERA in six spring starts, walking only three in 25.1 innings and allowing just 13 hits.

“He’s shifted where he stands on the mound and is having a great spring by results,” Eno Sarris wrote in The Athletic. “”If he really has figured out how to retire lefties, that would be a huge leap forward for a guy who’s already projected to be a decent back-end starter in most leagues.”

Warren could find himself on the All-Star radar early if he can string some quality starts together. All the better if he can up his strikeouts.

Aaron Judge hits at least 40 home runs…

We all know what the three-time MVP and Yankee captain can do at this point. He slugs home runs with the ease of enjoying a Yankee Stadium chicken bucket. Nothing suggests his power is on the decline, so look for Judge to pick up right where he left off after mashing 53 last year.

Oh, and his 32nd home run of the season will also mark the 400th of his career.

…and Giancarlo Stanton and Ben Rice each slug 30.

This isn’t as ambitious a prediction for Stanton as it seems. He only managed 77 games last season, but still hit 24 home runs. Keeping in mind too that Stanton didn’t make his season debut until June 16 last year thanks to double tennis-elbow, but he didn’t even hit his first home run till July 2. He even hit .339 with nine homers in August. Stanton is easily the most frustrating Yankees player in recent memory, but his raw power hasn’t deserted him and he .286 with four home runs in spring training. If he stays off the IL and the Yankees manage his ABs accordingly, hitting 30 again isn’t out of the question.

Rice, on the other hand, seems all but destined for a big year. He hit 26 in 138 games last year and is a year older and wiser, and he has Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field. Unless the BABIP gods burn him like they did last year, 30 home runs should be a walk in Central Park for Rice.

The Yankees take back the AL East

It’s easy to forget that the Blue Jays and Yankees each had the same record last year: 94-68. Toronto only won the AL East from owning the tiebreaker. Thank the Yankees’ extended midsummer slump and rare bad bullpen for that. And maybe the Blue Jays overachieving to the point of barely striking out at all.

But the fact remains that despite their tough lineup, not even signing Dylan Cease in free agency is enough to fix the Jays’ rotation. Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer are both old. Trey Yesavage, the team’s best homegrown pitching prospect in years, is out indefinitely with shoulder trouble. So are Shane Bieber and Jose Berríos with forearm and elbow issues.

Cue the Yankees’ depth riding into battle. This team lost Juan Soto to the Mets in free agency and then Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery. And yet, the Bronx Bombers matched their AL Pennant-winning record from 2024. Reclaiming the East in ’26 is far from out of the question.