Breaking down the Yankees’ projected 2026 Opening Day lineup

Two days remain until the New York Yankees play their Opening Day game versus the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Wednesday, so the question remains. How will manager Aaron Boone build his lineup against San Francisco ace Logan Webb?

Chris Kirschner of The Athletic recently spoke to Boone for a piece to debunk the myth that won’t die: He doesn’t make the lineup, the front office’s analytics team does. Nope. It’s all Boone, as confirmed by Kirschner and in the late, great Scott Miller’s book Skipper: Why Baseball Managers Matter and Always Will.

Of course, Kirschner’s piece includes the team’s projected Opening Day Lineup. Spoiler alert, nothing’s changed. It’s very much the lineup which was used last year, sans the recovering Anthony Volpe.

Basic though the lineup is, there’s something to the Yankees simply running it back to kick things off in San Francisco. Let’s take a look at spots 1-9 and figure how each helps the Yankees against Webb and his sinker-led arsenal.

Trent Grisham- CF

Grisham’s back with the Yankees on a one-year qualifying offer ($22 million) after mashing a career-best 34 home runs with 74 RBI, 21 of which he hit away from Yankee Stadium. However, Oracle Park’s right field wall is high and makes doubles or outs of balls that would be home runs at Yankee Stadium. Grisham has four home runs in San Francisco, but bats just .220.

What he also does well, however, is draw walks. Grisham’s walk rate (BB%) last year was a career-best 14.1%, ideal against a pitching-oriented team like the Giants. Forget that he posted a career-worst -11 defensive runs saved (DRS) in center field last season. He was playing with a bad hamstring and still turned in a career season. The Yankees need him at his best in Oracle’s gigantic outfield.

Aaron Judge- RF

The reigning (three-time) MVP is back for more and to pick up where he left off last year. The man has thrived in the No. 2 spot his whole career, and the No. 2 spot is where he’ll stay. Moving on!

Cody Bellinger- LF

What a weird, weird, year Belli had in 2025. He hit .274 on the year with 29 home runs and 98 RBI, but hit .353 against lefties compared to .244 against righties. However, 21 of his homers were against righties and he hit .302 at home compared to .241 at home. In turn, he hit 18 home runs when the Yanks were the visitors. He’s only a .225 career hitter against the Giants, but maybe his splits shall reverse again.

Ben Rice- 1B

The Yankees have made loud and clear that they really, really like Rice and see him as a veritable power threat in the lineup. The 27-year-old hit .255 with 26 homers and a 133 wRC+ in his first full season while most of his advanced and expected hitting metrics ranked from as low as the 89th percentile to as high as the 97th. Those numbers could have easily been more if not for Rice’s .271 BABIP. So many hard hits turned into loud outs, but hopefully not the case with Oracle’s high right field wall and deep outfield gaps!

In the cleanup spot? There’s every reason to expect Rice to enjoy a 30-home run season, maybe even more!

Giancarlo Stanton- DH

No longer a spring chicken at 36, Stanton still looked ageless in spring training, slugging four homers with a .990 OPS. He claims his elbows feel fine, so now it’s just a matter everyone holding their breath until the inevitable injury. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll get regular at-bats to tear the cover off of balls in the DH slot, starting on Opening Day.

It also helps that Stanton is a .320 career hitter with 20 home runs against the Giants. That includes batting .310 with ten home runs at Oracle Park. If Webb leaves a sinker up in the zone and slightly away? Don’t be shocked if Stanton parks one into McCovey Cove.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.- 2B

It was hard to not put Chisholm in the cleanup spot, especially since he has his eyes on a 40-40 season. However, he strikes out a bit too much and isn’t as much of a hard-hit threat as Rice, so he’ll open the season in the No. 6 spot. He’ll certainly bat fourth in a handful of games, but Chisholm also had a very middling hard-hit rate last year, only the 49th percentile.

Moreover, Logan Webb leans on his sinker and sweeper while on the mound. And Chisholm only hit .185 against breaking pitches last season.

Austin Wells- C

If his spring is any indication, Wells should be in for a solid bounceback in his third full season. This after Wells regressed to hit .219 with a 94 wRC+ in 2025 after being a Rookie of the Year finalist in 2024. He even hit a combined .171 against offspeed and breaking pitches.

But in spring training? Wells hit .235 with a home run and .910 OPS, plus .267 with two and a 1.086 OPS playing for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. The Yankees really need Wells back in form in 2026, especially with no clear successor in the wings. Batting seventh is a good low-pressure spot for him to ease back into things.

Jose Caballero- SS

There’s no telling what to expect from Caby right now, particularly after hitting an uninspired .185 in spring training. He did, however, bat .267 with a .954 OPS for his native Panama in the WBC. What’s more, he hit .266 with a 131 wRC+ after his trade to the Yankees last July. That’s compared to .226 with an 81 wRC+ with the Rays beforehand. Bonus points for being a net positive at almost every infield position.

Boone said Sunday that regular shortstop Anthony Volpe, recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, will begin a rehab assignment in the “second week” of April. This is truly a make-or-break year for him. Caballero could steal the job out from under him if he swings the bat well in the meantime.

Ryan McMahon- 3B

McMahon seemed a great “change of scenery” acquisition when he came over from the Colorado Rockies last trade deadline. Instead, he was somehow worse and put up an 81 wRC+ in pinstripes compared to 90 in Colorado. Lucky for him, he’s an elite defensive third baseman who posted +10 DRS last year. He’s +69 at the hot corner for his career.

A .178 batting average in spring training later, it might be time to lower expectations. Especially considering he’s under contract through next season. McMahon is in this lineup for his glove. Nothing more, nothing less. Anything he does with the bat might as well be a treat of sorts.