Back in April, the New York Yankees swept the Kansas City Royals in the first leg of last year’s ALDS rematch. Three big wins, three close games, three comeback victories for the Bronx Bombers.
Kansas City takes its turn to host a three-game set now, but not in an ideal playoff position. They’re currently fourth in the AL Central and trail first-place Detroit by 8.5 games. The Yankees, meanwhile, hold a four-game lead over the Rays and Blue Jays in the AL East despite dropping a weekend series to the Red Sox.
No better time for either team to bounce back. Both New York and Kansas City have lost three of their last five. The Yankees’ pitching melted down against Boston and needs a strong week. Kansas City, contrastingly, ranks dead last in team home runs with only 44, leaving its Top 10 pitching staff and 3.31 team ERA in limbo.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: YES, TBS
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-200), O/U 8.5
Key Storyline: Can struggling Yankees arms keep up in Kansas City? New York would rather forget its pitching staff’s performance against the Red Sox last weekend. Yankees starters posted a horrific 10.85 ERA against Boston as the team lost two of a three-game set. The Royals’ pitchers, on the other hand, have picked up right where they left off in 2024. In fact, they’ve slightly improved.
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried (8-1, 1.78 ERA) vs. Noah Cameron (2-1, 0.85 ERA). Fried tossed six shutout innings in his last start and already pitched well against Kansas City back in April. The lanky lefty is in a good position to continue that trend when he makes his Kauffman Stadium debut on Tuesday.
KC counters with Cameron, their own lefty and No. 5 prospect who they drafted out of Central Arkansas in 2021. His immediate numbers jump off the page, but let’s slow our roll. Dig deeper, and Cameron is going through a textbook case of rookie overachieving. He’s a majority fly ball pitcher whose 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) has more than halved in MLB to 5.4.
The long and short of it is Fried is a soft contact/ground ball specialist who does not give up home runs. Cameron’s ERA is paired with a 3.64 FIP and 4.59 xFIP, and 93 Stuff+ indicates overall subaverage pitches. Not easy to rack up strikeouts in the bigs if opposing hitters see the ball that well.
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X-Factor: Paul Goldschmidt. Nobody expected the former MVP and future Hall-of-Famer to bat at or around .340 all season, but to say Goldschmidt has hit a wall is an understatement. He’s batting .111 in June and .154 in his last ten games. That’s quite the skid, even for the 37-year-old Goldschmidt.
Thus, the lefty Cameron pitching for the Royals probably means slugging rookie DH/1B Ben Rice is on the bench tonight. Goldschmidt has always raked against lefties and, as we just discussed, Cameron’s been overachieving. That 93 Stuff+ means Goldschmidt could be in line for a big night if he’s seeing the ball well.
Prediction: Max Fried lone blemish in his victory against the Royals in April? Of his two runs allowed, one came via a solo home run by MJ Melendez. Otherwise, Fried’s 0.56 HR/9 this year is his lowest mark since the abbreviated 2020 season.
Combine that with Kansas City ranking last in both home runs and walk rate (BB%), and this truly is New York’s game to lose. Considering that none of Noah Cameron’s five MLB starts have been against 2024 playoff teams, the Yankees should win this one pretty handily.
If you’re on New York sports betting apps, New York’s run or moneyline is smart. However, in lieu of the over/under, try an Aaron Judge hitting parlay. He’s a .327 career hitter against the Royals, so betting him to hit a home run or get multiple total bases could prove fruitful. Yankees 6, Royals 1
