On Friday, the Yankees proved us wrong again and came out storming versus the Mets, slaughtering them with smallball in a 6-2 victory. Juan Soto, in his first return to the Bronx, was 0 for 2 with three walks and flied out to center to end the game.
Come Saturday, the Mets will turn to one of their surprise arms in Griffin Canning to even the series. The Bronx Bombers counter with Clarke Schmidt, who seems to be finding his groove and went six innings in his last start.
Friday’s tilt was a barnburner, so expect no less for the Saturday matinee.
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: YES, SNY
Run Line: Yankees -1.5, O/U 9.5
Pitching matchup: Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.36 ERA) vs Clarke Schmidt (1-1, 4.73 ERA). On the surface, Canning is having a great start to his season. His groundball rate (GB%) is a career-best 53.9%, quite impressive since he relies primarily on a slider, fastball, and changeup. However, he’s prone to hard contact and his average exit velocity is only in the 7th percentile. He’s also overachieving in that his Stuff+ is a sub-average 93.
Schmidt, on the other hand, is better than his numbers imply. His FIP is a solid 3.07 and his Stuff+ is exactly at the league average of 100. He hasn’t been his sharpest, but it could just be him ramping himself back up from a previous shoulder issue. Either way, expect one of Canning or Schmidt to look sharp early and go from there.
X-Factor: Canning. The Mets are in first place largely because of their pitching, making him the man of the hour on Saturday. He’ll need his slider spinning and biting at its best in hopes that the Yankees will chase and whiff. Canning’s Whiff% and Chase% are each in the 61st percentile, so this is indeed possible.
Prediction: On Friday, the Yankees’ plan was to make Tylor Megill throw a lot of pitches early. Five walks in 2.2 innings later, mission accomplished.
Canning, on the other hand, requires a different plan: Swing up in the zone. Given that plus Canning not having great stuff, the Yankees should take this one and the series. Yankees 6, Mets 3
