A late comeback wasn’t enough for the Yankees in their 6-4 loss to Cleveland on Monday, after Clarke Schmidt, despite seven strikeouts, had nothing working in his second start back from injury. New York will turn to another young righty to even the series on Tuesday: rookie Will Warren.
The former Southeastern Louisiana product has been up and down all season, going 1-0 with a 5.17 ERA across four starts. In his last start, against the Rays on Thursday, Warren had no control of his fastball and exited embarrassingly early.
The Yankees won the game 6-4, but Warren lasted just 1.2 innings. He allowed just one run, but allowed four hits and struck out just one along with walking two. Strangely, walks have been Warren’s problem all season, allowing 5.2 per nine innings.
And against a fellow struggling Cleveland starter, Warren needs to want the game more.
Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
TV: YES
Run Line: Yankees -1.5, O/U 8.5
Pitching Matchup: Will Warren (1-0, 5.17 ERA) vs. Tanner Bibee (1-2, 5.85 ERA). Will Warren’s key to winning the pitching game is simple: Be aggressive with the fastballs and throw them for strikes. Fans will recall that against the Rays, Warren kept trying to nick the corners with both his four-seamer and sinker. Meanwhile, the Rays whiffed on his sweeper again and again, and Cleveland has the eighth-best strikeout rate (K%) in baseball.
Lucky for Warren, Cleveland righty Bibee is also off to a slow start. His struggles are also sort of self-inflicted, as he has completely changed his pitch selection. He’s relying primarily on his fastball, cutter, and sinker with the sweeper and changeup in the back pocket. That’s a big departure from when he relied on those two pitches quite a bit last season, and now Bibee has allowed seven home runs through four starts.
In 2024, he didn’t allow his seventh home run until his 10th start of the year.
X-Factor: Ben Rice. Manager Aaron Boone said the dynamic rookie should be back in the lineup after missing two games with a bruised elbow, which is great news for the Yankees. Rice has done nothing but hit the ball hard in the young season and sits in the 100th percentile for hard hit rate (Hard%) and the 99th for barrel rate (Barrel%) and average exit velocity. He pinch-hit to lead off the ninth inning on Monday and grounded out to second on the first pitch.
Assuming he’s leading off against the struggling Bibee, Rice should get right back into his groove if his elbow’s healthy. He’s batting .288 with five home runs and a 186 wRC+, and gives the Yankees some much-needed power back.
Prediction: Assuming that Will Warren has better control of his pitches, the Yankees should eke this out in a close one. Rice coming back helps everybody, and key bats like Judge and rookie Jasson Dominguez took some good swings yesterday. It’s all a matter of building a lead early and hoping Warren can get enough outs before the bullpen takes over.
Thus, if you find yourself on New York sports betting apps today, give the Yankees moneyline and the over a go. Toss in a Judge home run and/or a Rice base hit too for something extra.
