The Yankees face their longtime rival Cleveland Guardians for the start of a three-game series at Progressive Field tonight, almost exactly six months after New York won the AL Pennant there.
A lot has changed since. Juan Soto, whose extra-innings home run proved the clincher in Game 5, is now with the crosstown rival Mets. The Guardians had a relatively quiet offseason, but are still playing their signature scrappy against-the-grain style.
Today, both sides enter the series motivated. New York sits atop the AL East, playing as though losing Soto barely hurt at all. Cleveland, similarly, is only a half-game behind the first place Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.
It’s a meaningless early series but make no mistake. These teams don’t like each other, so expect at least some drama starting tonight.
Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
TV: YES
Run Line: Yankees -1.5, O/U 8.5
Pitching Matchup: Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 4.76 ERA) vs Gavin Williams (1-1, 4.58 ERA). “Clarke the Shark” had a strong season debut last week in his return from a sore shoulder, allowing three runs in 5.2 innings against Kansas City. The only downside was that he struck out only two, and Cleveland is notorious for not striking out. He’ll need his sweeper and sinker in top form so he can keep the ball either on the ground or out of play.
On the Cleveland side, Williams knows the Yankees all too well. He started Game 4 and didn’t even last three innings despite avoiding the loss. That and one regular season start are a small sample size, but Williams has otherwise struggled with everything this year except fastball velocity. His walks are up and his underlying metrics do him zero favors. Look for New York to be patient and make him work.
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X-Factors: Cody Bellinger & Anthony Volpe. Captain Aaron Judge, despite putting together yet another great season, is only a .254 career hitter against Cleveland and a mere .214 playing in Cleveland. Enter Bellinger and Volpe, who both have respectable numbers against this week’s opponent.
Let’s start with Bellinger. He’s struggling with a .179 batting average and just two home runs, but he’s hit .333 with four home runs against Cleveland in his career. Better yet, three of those four homers were hit at Progressive Field.
Volpe, meanwhile, is batting just .213 on the year, but is a .317 career hitter against the Guardians. He was seeing the ball well in the last two games of the weekend Rays series and that should continue into this tilt.
Prediction: If you’re browsing New York sports betting apps, I’ve got two words for you: Advantage Yankees. The Bronx Bombers haven’t lost a series in Cleveland since 2019 and simply have the better lineup. Betting the run or money lines is smart along with the over.
More aggressive gamblers might pick Bellinger and/or Judge to hit home runs, though don’t sleep on Volpe! Betting on him to at least get a hit could prove fruitful in a game with blowout potential. Yankees 9, Guardians 4
