New York baseball is having a big offseason, folks. It continued on Thursday night. The Mets made a minor addition by signing catcher Omar Narvaez, but the Yankees officially nabbed the last elite starting pitcher on the market in Carlos Rodon.
The rotations for both the Yankees and Mets appear to be mostly set. The Bombers didn’t have to do much heavy lifting, but the addition of Rodon makes it a formidable unit. Meanwhile, the Mets acquired three starters to completely remake their rotation.
Which starting five is currently projected to perform better in 2023? How much better (or worse) are they projected to be compared to this past season? We can provide some answers to those questions thanks to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections. These numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but it’s still a good way for us to get an idea of what expectations could be for the upcoming season.
Let’s take a peek at the numbers for each squad’s projected starting five.
Yankees rotation projections
Gerrit Cole. 14-9 record with a 3.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.37 K/9, and 2.23 BB/9 in 197 innings. 4.4 fWAR
Carlos Rodon. 13-9 record with a 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.70 K/9, and 2.50 BB/9 in 181 innings. 4.5 fWAR
Nestor Cortes. 11-10 record with a 3.92 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.52 K/9, and 2.59 BB/9 in 167 innings. 2.2 fWAR
Luis Severino. 10-8 record with a 3.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.02 K/9, and 2.73 BB/9 in 145 innings. 2.3 fWAR
Frankie Montas. 10-9 record with a 3.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.92 K/9, and 2.60 BB/9 in 154 innings. 2.3 fWAR
The addition of Rodon gives the Yankees both an intangible and tangible boost. He bumps Domingo German from the rotation, who is currently projected for just 0.6 fWAR in 85 innings.
Mets rotation projections
Justin Verlander. 13-9 record with a 3.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.16 K/9, and 1.83 BB/9 in 190 innings. 4.2 fWAR
Max Scherzer. 13-9 record with a 3.32 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.79 K/9, and 1.94 BB/9 in 191 innings. 4.3 fWAR
Jose Quintana. 11-10 record with a 3.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.29 K/9, and 2.90 BB/9 in 167 innings. 2.0 fWAR
Carlos Carrasco. 10-10 record with a 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.47 K/9, and 2.58 BB/9 in 158 innings. 1.8 fWAR
Kodai Senga, who the Mets signed last week to a five-year, $75 million deal, doesn’t yet have 2023 Steamer projections available. The next two hurlers with the most projected innings out of the rotation are Tylor Megill (81 innings) and David Peterson (83 innings). They’re each projected for 1.1 fWAR, so we’ll combine that to 2.2 for the fifth spot.
Senga’s projection probably won’t be more than that anyways since his performance is more of an unknown.
If we combine the currently projected fWAR from each of these groups, the Yankees have the upper hand. The Bombers have a projected rotation fWAR of 15.7, while the Mets check in with 14.5.
For some context, the Houston Astros (19.4) and Philadelphia Phillies (17.5) were the top two rotations in baseball. The Mets (15.9) finished fifth, and the Yankees (13.7) were tied with the San Diego Padres for ninth.
These projections (with Senga’s still to be determined) between both New York rotations are probably a little closer than some might expect. Especially after the Yankees just made a huge addition Thursday night. Outside of general health, the overall production of these rotations will fall on the hurlers on the back end.
Cole, Rodon, Scherzer, and Verlander are all projected to be among baseball’s top seven starting pitchers in 2023. As long as they’re on the mound, we know what to generally expect from them.
But will Severino give the Yankees a full season? Can Montas bounce back? What will Senga bring to the table? Do the Mets actually have enviable depth? Those are the types of things that’ll be key for these units heading into next season. But based on the projections, we should expect the rotations in the Queens and the Bronx to be among baseball’s best.