There are a few scenarios that must play out as perfect if the 2018 New York Jets have any designs of qualifying for the 2018 NFL Playoffs.
The Rodney Dangerfield of the National Football League, the New York Jets, get no respect.
OK, so perhaps the Jets haven’t dominated an era of American Football like Dangerfield in his industry, comedy. After all, he was a late bloomer. It took quite some time before that splendid Dangerfield breakout.
In terms of the respect department, none for both, and it’s happening all over again for a second consecutive season.
This very time last year, the so-called NFL experts were labeling the Jets personnel the worst in the league, unworthy of even a couple wins. Some actually predicted a 0-16 season while others called the overall talent the worst in a decade.
ESNY knew better than to think over-the-hill cuts such as Eric Decker, David Harris and Darrelle Revis equaled tanking. ESNY knew that, in fact, the Jets roster had improved in overall talent from the miserable 2016 season. And, of course, after a surprising start that ultimately led to a 5-11 season, ESNY’s prediction of 6-10 was almost right on the money.
Mike Clay of ESPN brings Dangerfield to the table. He has the Jets finishing with the worst record in the league.
Clay also has three of the four AFC East teams finishing in the bottom four in the league which is almost impossible, but that’s a completely different story for another day. He said similar things a year ago (much like the entire world), per ESPN.
“One of the worst Week 1 rosters in recent memory, and not by accident. The Jets are in full-on rebuild mode and will have their shot at an elite quarterback prospect next April.”
There’s no questioning where the Jets rank in terms of what an overall depth chart’s talents look like. They are a bottom-third of the league roster at this moment.
The offensive line is horrible. Their edge presence may be the worst in the NFL. Their quarterback situation is still undecided even while coming to the party with a franchise face hopeful.
Many deficiencies, especially crippling deficiencies (O-line and edge) are present in Florham Park, New Jersey.
Just don’t make the very same mistake you made a year ago. Five wins and the “worst Week 1 roster in recent memory” are two completely different and contrasting things. Even better, five wins for a team who’s added more talent shouldn’t equal a lesser roster.
Yes, the Jets can qualify for the 2018 tournament. It is possible and if certain things break right, can absolutely happen. Never would I believe this team is legit. No legit team can showcase an O-line like this to go along with zero edge rushers. But if certain things break right, the young Jets can win nine to 10 games.
It really must break perfectly, however.
Here are the scenarios that must break perfectly for the New York Jets to have even the slightest chance of a 2018 NFL postseason berth.
The O-Line Must Magically Turn Spectacular
Forty-seven sacks relented a season ago. This is the number of sacks the New York Jets offensive line gave up. Only six teams yielded higher numbers.
In addition, while the Jets rushing attack appeared to finish near the middle of the pack in many categories, it was truly a struggle.
Nineteenth in the NFL in rushing with a 4.0 yards per carry and 106.4 yards per game—the rushing situation is much more depressing. The Jets would have finished 31st in the league with an 81.15 yards per game average if their three top-notch rushing games were taken out of the equation.
- Jets rushing in Weeks 4, 9 and 16: 647 yards
- Jets rushing in other 13 games: 1,055 yards
The Jacksonville Jaguars early in the season and a not-ready-for-primetime Buffalo Bills team on Thursday night allowed the Jets to pick up a huge chunk of their rushing total.
The only possible way New York’s O-line can improve is if one or two of the undrafted and/or newly acquired no-namers turn out as gems.
Due to the fact Mike Maccagnan has yet again passed on drafting a single O-lineman (second consecutive year), the Jets way-below-average O-line will need a push from a couple of the no-namers.
The names are many:
- Antonio Garcia, T
- Austin Gholson, C
- Darius James, T
- Dakota Shepley, T
Spencer Long is replacing the disaster that was Wesley Johnson. Center Travis Swanson is a nice depth piece in the middle, but pressure is needed to make Kelvin Beachum, Brandon Shell, James Carpenter and Brian Winters sweat a little in August.
One or two of those names above must come out of nowhere and push for a starting spot if these Jets have any designs on the playoffs.
If not, this O-line simply isn’t good enough to get it done.
The Perfect Scenario
- Brian Winters returns to full form after an injury-plagued season.
- Spencer Long proves to be a huge upgrade over Wesley Johnson.
- Antonio Garcia emerges as top-flight talent, battling both Kelvin Beachum and Brandon Shell in August.
- Travis Swanson proves to be that excellent sixth offensive lineman every depth chart needs.
A True Edge Rusher Must Emerge
Jordan Jenkins and Lorenzo Mauldin are the current starters at outside linebacker in Todd Bowles’ 3-4 scheme. These were the very same guys who started a year ago.
How the Jets could not take a flier on a Josh Sweat out of Florida State, for example, is beyond me. It is what it is. The Jets have zero edge pass rushers while the Philadelphia Eagles showcase over six.
Many attempt to push the “interior pressure” idea, but it never works. When an offensive line knows it can double-team Leonard Williams with impunity game in and game out, there are no magic tricks in the world that could overcome such a situation. Big Cat is stymied and every one-on-one situation fails on defense.
Much like the O-line narrative, a major player needs to emerge as the Jets edge threat.
Could it be Jordan Jenkins entering his third NFL season? Doubtful. As solid as the kid is, especially against the run, he’s not a pure pass rusher. How about young Mauldin? He can’t stay healthy.
David Bass can do a few things along the edge when called upon. Josh Martin is OK in certain spots. Mid-round pick from a year ago, Dylan Donahue, was the team’s best shot of a pure edge rusher. Of course, he’s dealing with other demons right now.
Not since the days of John Abraham has anybody known where the edge pressure will come from and it remains that way heading into 2018. The shame of it all is that the Jets secondary is good enough to be labeled “the best in the NFL.” It’ll never happen thanks to the team’s inexplainable failure of finding personnel that can get it done via a four-man conventional pass rush.
It’s a football sin—especially in this day and age that rewards the conventional pass rush more than ever.
The Perfect Scenario
- After two injury-plagued seasons, Lorenzo Mauldin breaks through as a legit edge presence, collects 12 sacks.
- David Bass tallies eight sacks as a subpackage demon.
- Dylan Donahue gets his act straight and back on track as a sub rusher.
Sam Darnold Must Hit The Ground Running
Josh McCown may start the season behind center. If he’s still there after Week 2, these Jets have no shot of a playoff berth.
The only chance this personnel group has of playing in January is if Sam Darnold hits the ground running prior to Week 3 and never looks back.
The Jets making the playoffs this upcoming season would channel memories of Andrew Luck pushing his talentless Indianapolis Colts teams during his first three seasons. For too many years, that Indy team had no O-line and little talent on the defensive side yet Luck pushed them to the brink.
As crazy as it sounds from a Jets point of view is as credible as it is from a national perspective. Top three quarterbacks have showcased incredible talent over the last decade and change to the point in which they insanely affect a roster’s fortune.
It can happen with Sam Darnold and the New York Jets, but No. 2 (offensive line magically turning legit) may have to occur prior to No. 4 (Sam Darnold must hit the ground running).
The Perfect Scenario
- Sam Darnold wins the job in August and never looks back while turning heads the entire way.