The NBA regular season awards will be dominated by Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors. What a surprise.
By Chip Murphy
The Golden State Warriors dominated the narrative this year from the starting point, culminating in their breaking the wins record set by Jordans’ Bulls.
It seems only fair that the defending champs, who are the clear favorites to repeat, will be shown plenty of love come awards time.
To choose who was worthy of each honor I used a combination of traditional and advanced stats to go along with the ever-reliable eye test.
Most Valuable Player: Stephen Curry (PG-GSW)
No drama in the MVP vote this year. Stephen Curry wasn’t just the most valuable player during the 2015-16 NBA season, but arguably the most valuable of all time. The record breaking Warriors and their incredible offense are stunningly worse when their point guard is off the court.
Curry’s astronomical +22.2 net rating is perfect evidence. With their star on the floor the Warriors are +17.9 points per 100 possessions but they’re an abysmal -4.3 points per 100 poss. when he sits.
According to NBA Stats, the Warriors scored 116.7 points per 100 poss. in the 2,700 minutes with Curry on the floor and just 102.9 points per 100 poss. in the 1,276 minutes without.
This is a Warriors team that won 73 games with an average margin of victory of almost 11 points per contest. This is a team that lead the NBA in scoring, three-point shooting, and assists (via basketball-reference.com). But without Curry they look pedestrian.
In three games without Curry this season the Warriors are 2-1, with the sky nearly falling after that blowout loss at Dallas in December.
Curry’s individual stats have been discussed to death, but it’s necessary to point out that he became the first scoring leader (30.1 ppg) to be in the 50/40/90 club. A truly incredible fact when you consider Curry attempted 1,569 FGs with an astounding 873 coming from downtown. He only made 363 of a possible 400 free throws, no big deal.
There may never be another player like Curry. He’s armed with a quick trigger that prevents defenders from leaving even the slightest of open spaces in his vicinity. That’s what separates him from the other shooters.
The NBA three point line is 23 feet 9 inches. Apparently Curry has taken that as more of a guideline that a rule. You see he’s attempted a remarkable 563 shots from between shots from between 25 and 29 feet, making 251, good for 44.6 percent.
It gets better. Believe it or not, Curry has taken 26 shots from between 30 and 34 feet, and made 15 of course (via NBA Stats). That’s good for not just 57.7 percent, but also for making him a non-stop highlight reel for the impossible shot.
We’ve had the privilege of watching Curry turn from the underdog draft pick to the greatest shooter of all time. It was worth the wait.
Rookie of the Year: Karl-Anthony Towns (C-MIN)
Like MVP, the Rookie of the Year award should be unanimous this season. Jahlil Okafor missed 19 games and when he played was a defensive albatross, Kristaps Porzingis tailed off towards the end of the game, and D’Angelo Russell might as well have not played basketball this season he’s just a snitch as far as most are concerned.
That leaves the No. 1 pick and the cream of the crop: Karl-Anthony Towns. He was the best rookie in the league this season by a mile. Towns did something that hardly NBA athlete does anymore, much less a rookie, he dominated on both ends of the court.
The 20-year-old out of the University of Kentucky led rookies in scoring (18.3), rebounding (10.4), blocks (1.7), double doubles (51), and PER (22.5), while on a slash line of .543/.341/.811.
The rookie center has shown an impressive versatility in his offensive game as more than just a scorer in the paint but also as a shooter. Towns was 261 for 600 (43.5 percent) on jump shots (via NBA Stats).
On spot up shots, Towns converted an impressive 1.13 points per possession with an effective field goal percentage of 58.1%. Those numbers put him in the 86th percentile of efficiency in the NBA.
Okafor was thought to be the most polished rookie in the class but that didn’t turn out to be remotely true, as Towns has proven he isn’t just good for a rookie but he’s one of the best big men in the NBA.
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green (PF-GSW)
Statistics can’t tell the entire story of how great a defensive player Draymond Green is. It’s hard to convey defensive skill through stats for at all so unless you’re living under a rock and don’t realize how good Green is on that end, I’ll have to do my best to show you what he’s capable of.
To start, check out this clip of him brilliantly switching onto James Harden and forcing him into a bad shot.
That’s the best isolation player in the league right there. You can imagine how the rest of the league fares when Green is jawing at them from a crouched stance.
According to NBA Stats, Green defended on 191 iso plays (first in the NBA) in 2015-16 and held the opponent to 30.5 percent from the field, good for the 85th percentile in efficiency.
At 6-foot-7 Green is arguably the best post defender in the league. He’s holding post up players to 31.4 percent shooting on 175 possessions, good for 89th percentile in efficiency. If you don’t believe the numbers, just ask LeBron James.
Then of course there’s the unstoppable lineup with Green at the center position. The Warriors score an incredible 142 points while allowing just 95 (per 100 possessions) with the lineup of Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, and Green. Opponent’s shoot just 38.5 percent from the field and 26.8 percent from three-point range while the Green at the 5 lineup is on the floor.
As much as we love to praise Curry, without Green the Warriors aren’t a championship squad.
Coach of the Year: Steve Kerr (GSW)
Are you starting to notice a pattern here? The Warriors are a great team so naturally they have a great coach. Zach Lowe of ESPN has a long-standing tradition of voting for Gregg Popovich as Coach of the Year every season, which makes sense given that he’s the best coach in the league.
I think an exception can be made however for the leader of one of the best teams in NBA history. Steve Kerr’s candidacy will come under question because he missed 43 games due to complications he suffered stemming from his offseason back surgery. If anything though that makes what he did even more impressive.
He wasn’t out of the picture completely. Kerr was in practice and giving advice to his interim man, Luke Walton. According to Walton, the head coach makes a difference by just being around the team.
Sixth Man Award: Ed Davis (PF/C-POR)
Thank the basketball gods, somebody finally figured out how to use Ed Davis. Ignore the pedestrian scoring number, Davis’ impact is felt in other areas.
The 26-year-old from the University of North Carolina put up impressive numbers in 2015-16.
Davis was dominant on the offensive glass for the playoff bound Trail Blazers, averaging 2.8 offensive rebounds per game in just 20.7 minutes, and finishing fourth in the league in offensive rebounding percentage (via basketball reference).
Davis is a classic hustle player, finding all of his offense inside the paint. The fact that he only attempted five field goals outside of the paint all season, as he should’ve, contributed to him averaging an incredible 61.1 percent from the field.
So how does something like that happen? Take a look at this play against the Wizards and the answer will be clear.
A player like Davis, who doesn’t have the explosiveness of a DeAndre Jordan, makes his offensive living on putbacks. Davis led the NBA this season in percentage of times a player executes a putback, and performed the underrated task effectively. In 134 possessions, Davis was 63.7 percent from the field, scoring 1.21 PPP, and finishing in the 79th percentile of efficiency (via NBA Stats).
As important as Davis was on offense, his impact was felt just as strongly on the defense. The Trail Blazers had a tough time on that end, finishing 20th in defensive rating and 26th in opponent’s three-point percentage so any help they could get was important.
Davis held opponents to 45.8 percent shooting at the rim, 4.6 percent lower on all field goal attempts while defending, and led the Trail Blazers in both block and steal percentage. Portland got Davis for three-years, $20 million. Incredible.
Most Improved Player: C.J. McCollum (SG-POR)
In past seasons the Most Improved Player Award has almost always been about an increase in scoring, not necessarily about whether or not the player became better. C.J. McCollum will win the award because of that tired cliche, but he’ll also win because he should.
McCollum has shown incredible resilience, playing and starting in 80 games despite a remarkable minutes increase from 2014-15 (15.7 MPG) to 2015-16 (34.8 MPG). It isn’t just the minutes, the entire offense runs through McCollum and his backcourt mate Damian Lillard.
Lillard accounted for 39.1 plays per game, while McCollum accounted for 30.9 with Mason Plumlee third after them with just 15.4. Again the two guards were at the top of time of possession percentage and true usage percentage by a wide margin, showing how much the ball shifts their way (according to Nylon Calculus).
The point is that McCollum is counted on to be Damian Lillard’s second in command, and he’s done a damn good job. In just his third season he went from bench warmer to mad bomber at age 24.
McCollum didn’t see a lot of three-pointers he didn’t like this season, and he definitely had the green light. McCollum made sure to knock down the good looks whenever he got them. He made the open shots (defined by NBA.com as closest defender within 4-6 feet) from three-point range at a phenomenal 40.2 percent clip, but on the wide open shots (closest defender within 6-plus feet) he was an even better 55.2 percent (via NBA Stats).
McCollum was only on the court enough last season to attempt 139 three’s. In 2015-16, he had done that by December.
McCollum has been an incredible asset behind the superstar Lillard as a pure shooter, and as the secondary guard running the pick and roll. He’ll have to contend with other good candidates like Denver’s Will Barton (Lance Thomas will receive votes Knicks’ fans) but ultimately McCollum’s the guy.