As a loaded class of MLB free agents begins to take shape, find out where the 10 best will be playing next year, and their price tags.
By Gregg Cambareri
This year’s free agent class is loaded with starting pitchers and outfielders. You can never have enough pitching, and offense is becoming more and more of a premium in today’s game.
Will the large market teams continue to dominate the spending, or could we see the mid markets making a dent with the almighty dollar? Whose going to have a new home in 2016? Who might be returning to a familiar ballpark? Will a qualifying offer actually be accepted? And how high will the tabs run for MLB’s best on the market?
Don’t worry, we’ve got predictions and potential price tags for the 10 best in this year’s free agent class.
David Price
Price is coming off a typically stellar season, and could easily command $200 million, or more.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs, 7 years/$215 million.
Left handed, clear cut number 1’s are hard to come by. That’s what makes David Price the top free agent of this offseason. Price, who just turned 30 in August, is coming off a 220 inning, 225 strikeout, and American League leading 2.45 ERA in 2015. He’s going to anchor whichever staff he chooses to play for next season.
Why the Cubbies? Beyond Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, the Cubs have little to offer in their rotation. Guys like Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel had nice regular seasons, but they didn’t fare well in the postseason. The Cubs have a roster oozing incredible positional talent, but lack the depth in the starting rotation to contend for the ultimate prize. The fact that Joe Maddon is Price’s former manager also could have an impact in swaying the big lefty to the north side of Chicago.
Will Price actually get a 7 year deal after turning 30? Yes, he will get 7 at a minimum. Last year Max Scherzer at age 30 signed a 7year/210 million dollar deal, and Price should be in that neighborhood without much difficulty.
Theo Epstein and the Cub front office know they need to add pitching to take the next step, and Price is going to be a prime target on their radar. His postseason struggles are well documented, but he’s just too darn good not to command a mammoth contract.
Zack Greinke
Greinke is coming off a career best season, making his move to opt out of 3 years and $71 million, a wise one.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, 5 years/120 million.
A sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP season is a very rare feat. That’s what makes Greinke’s 1.66 ERA and 0.844 WHIP so impressive (although his 2.76 FIP suggests otherwise). Regardless of what statistic you read, there’s no doubting that Greinke is a front of the rotation starter whose had success in both leagues.
Although he just turned 32 in October, Greinke still warrants a 5 year deal. Yes, his velocity could dip as he ages, but his elite command and ability to throw any pitch in any count makes the investment sensible. He had a season that will be nearly impossible to replicate, but that’s why he’s selling high and cashing in this offseason.
Beyond Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have issues in their rotation without Greinke. Brett Anderson is a free agent and Hyun-Jin Ryu is coming off shoulder surgery. LA’s league high payroll and deep pockets isn’t going to let their ace just walk out. Greinke will be sporting Dodger blue for several years to come.
Jason Heyward
Heyward brings several impressive tools to the table. Combined with his youth, he’s the best positional player in this year’s free agent class.
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 10 years/220 million.
It must be nice to his free agency at just 26 years of age. Jason Heyward could command a ten year deal with an AAV over $20 million. His blend of speed, defense, and base running has made him over a 6.0 WAR player three times in his young career already. He profiles best as a corner outfielder, but has showed he can competently handle center field also. Once rated as the game’s best prospect, Heyward is sure to cash in this winter.
Could Heyward get less than ten years? Considering the incredibly lengthy commitment ten years comes with, he could. If he were to accept, say, a 5 year pact, he could hit the free agent wire again in just his age 31 season. However, we have seen older players get ten year deals (we’re talking about you, Robinson Cano) so something long term seems likely.
As for the Angels, they have a glaring need for a left handed bat. Mike Trout and Albert Poujols posses the two best bats in the Angel lineup, and Heyward’s left handedness could give them more versatility, especially with the solid Kole Calhoun chipping in, as well. An outfield of Heyward, Trout, and Calhoun quickly becomes one of the best in the AL, offering speed, defense, and power.
The Angels have shown no fear of opening the checkbook before, and owner Arte Moreno could be flexing his financial muscles once again.
Justin Upton
Power and speed is a rare combo, making Upton one of the most sought after free agents in this year’s class.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles, 8 years/$165 million.
The pros certainly outweigh the cons in the case of Justin Upton. Five times he has had 25+ homers and 15+ stolen bases, posted 7 seasons of .790 OPS or higher, made three all star teams, and only turned 28 in August. He does have a fairly high strikeout rate (120 or more every season since ’08) and requires draft pick compensation. Let’s be honest though, Upton is an all star caliber player in the prime of his career–the team he signs with won’t be worrying about losing a pick. Jacoby Ellsbury’s 7 year/$153 million deal with the Yankees could be a starting point for negotiations.
His destination this offseason will land him in Baltimore. Last year, the O’s watched Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz find new employers. This year, it’s likely they’ll lose catcher Matt Wieters and slugging first baseman Chris Davis. They don’t have much money committed to next year’s payroll, so it’s about time they make a big free agent splash. Camden Yards is very hitter friendly, so Upton could enjoy many 30+ homer seasons over the next several years.
Yoenis Cespedes
Cespedes enjoyed a career best season in 2015. He’s lined himself up for a lucrative long term deal.
Prediction: New York Mets 6 years/$126 million
We told you this free agent class was loaded with stud outfielders. Yoenis Cespedes, similar to Zach Greinke, had a season he may never replicate again. Fortunately for them both, they’re going to cash in anyways. Cespedes posted career highs in runs, hits, homers, RBI’s, slugging, OPS, and total bases.
Cespedes is a five tool player who just turned 30. He’s expressed he wants a contract of at least 6 years, and could get something longer, given the history of his agency, Roc Nation Sports. He’s played for four teams in four years and certainly will be seeking a home for the long term.
The Mets are likely to lose Daniel Murphy, leaving a huge hole in the middle of the lineup without he and Cespedes, potentially. His free swinging approach does not fit the mindset of Mets GM Sandy Alderson, but it’s obvious that the Mets saw enough from Cespedes to like his overall value. The only question lies in ownership–will Fred and Jeff Wilpon open up the checkbook? It’s hard to say, considering they will owe millions of dollars next summer to a Bernie Madoff trustee (Irving Pickard), but revenues are up, all across the board in Queens, giving the Mets ownership little reason not to spend big for a club that’s ready to win now.
Chris Davis
Davis is the best pure power hitter on the market, and someone is going to pay a pretty penny for his services.
Prediction: Houston Astros, 6 years/$120 million.
Chris Davis essentially does 3 things: homer, walk, or strikeout. The punch outs and draft pick compensation attached to Davis will definitely scare some teams away, but his incredible power and high OBP will surely find a suitor willing to pay big. Remember, this a game in which power is more valuable than ever, and Davis has led the league in big flys in two of the past three seasons.
Born in Longview Texas, Davis should welcome a return to his home state. The Astros are a team built on homers and strikeouts so the addition of Davis almost makes too much sense. They would have to move incumbent Chris Carter, but Davis provides a measurable upgrade so it could be well worth it for the Astros to do so. They don’t have much payroll committed to next season, so a big ticket free agent like Davis could make sense.
Jordan Zimmermann
Zimmermann has been one of the most consistent starters over the past 5 years. He’s not the top free agent in this class, but he should have the interest of several teams.
Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 6 years/$114 million.
Five straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball, four straight of 190+ innings pitched, and one of the lowest walk rates in the league makes Jordan Zimmermann a more than attractive free agent this winter. He won’t turn 30 until May, and has lined himself up for a 9 figure pay day.
The Giants have an ace in Madison Bumgarner but they lack a legitimate number 2 behind him. Jake Peavy is a solid middle of the rotation guy, Chris Heston had highs and lows during his rookie season, and Matt Cain’s injury history and inconsistency makes him a total wild card. Peavy has just one year left on his contract, while Cain has only two more. The Giants have one of the higher payrolls in the league, and the pressure to win given their successful championship runs over the past several years makes acquiring another front of the rotation starter all the more necessary.
Johnny Cueto
Cueto is another solid righty on a long list of impressive starting pitchers likely to change teams this winter.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox, 6 years/108 million.
The Red Sox have been connected to Cueto for some time now, and they’ll have a good chance to land their man this offseason. Cueto has eclipsed 200 innings three times in his career, and isn’t far removed from a career best 2014 which saw him finish second in the NL CY Young balloting.
Cueto does not come with draft pick compensation, but does come with some risk. He has had some injuries over his career, with mid season elbow trouble giving everyone a scare last summer. Obviously, it wasn’t a big deal as Cueto pitched the rest of the season without any injury issues. He was, however, less than impressive in the second half, but fired his best ball of the year in a game 5 ALDS win vs. Houston and a World Series gem in game 2 this past October.
Historically, he does not walk many and usually pitches deep into games, as long as his health is in tact. Cueto should give a boost to a Boston rotation that struggled through much of 2015.
Mike Leake
Innings eaters have great value on any team, making Leake an attractive free agent target for several teams.
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays 4 years/64 million.
He’s not going to wow you with explosive stuff, but Mike Leake’s value cannot be understated. He doesn’t turn 28 until next week, has a low walk rate, fields his position well, and has posted three straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball. His career FIP of 4.21 suggests he has been fortunate at times, but his ability to give teams length will be valuable (at least 179 IP in four consecutive seasons).
The Blue Jays are losing David Price, Marco Estrada, and Mark Buerhle to free agency and need to sign at least one starter to give them innings. Leake isn’t going dominate the opposition, but his ability to keep teams in games combined with the Blue Jays high powered offense makes sense for Toronto. Leake also doesn’t strike out many–Toronto was one of the better defensive clubs in the game last season which also makes sense for them. A four year contract will allow Leake to become a free agent again entering his age 32 season. His 16 million AAV shouldn’t cripple a heavy spending Blue Jay team too much.
Alex Gordon
Gordon has played his entire career in Kansas City. Does he finish there?
Prediction: Kansas City Royals, 5 years/ $95 million.
Gordon is already one of the best defensive corner outfielders in the game, and usually presents solid numbers at the plate. He’s a doubles machine, has decent pop, and generates a good amount of walks. He’ll turn 32 later this winter and would come with draft pick compensation if KC fails to resign him.
It makes sense for Gordon to resign with the Royals simply because he has more value to them than any other team. They would not forfeit a draft pick, he fits in well in the clubhouse, and is popular amongst the fans. Gordon missed over six weeks with a groin injury earlier this year, which might make some teams concerned. Given his play in the postseason, KC knows he’s fine better than any other team. Gordon also fits the contact first approach used by Ned Yost’s side. Kansas City has never spent more than 5 years and 55 million on a player (Gil Meche) but it’s time they reward one of their most loyal soldiers.