Freddy Peralta, Mets open homestand, hope to stay hot vs. D-Backs

The New York Mets (6-4) welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks (5-5) to Citi Field this afternoon. First pitch is set for 4:10 pm, ET.

Both teams won Sunday and were off Monday. The Mets went 4-3 on their West Coast road trip, despite not having injured Juan Soto.

Manager Carlos Mendoza has the Mets playing highly efficient baseball right out of the gate. Anchored by the elite middle infield duo of shortstop Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette, the offense has provided just enough run support for a dominant pitching staff that boasts a 2.53 home ERA. The Mets are 2-1 at home and will look to stack another early win against a visiting Arizona squad struggling to find its rhythm.

Don’t expect a home run derby today. Mets ace Freddy Peralta (1-1, 4.36) goes against Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.60). Both were Opening Day starters for their respective clubs.

We break down today’s Diamondbacks at Mets game and offer the best bets.

Diamondbacks vs Mets Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Mets -162 | Diamondbacks +135
• Runline: Mets -1.5 (+140) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-169)
• Total (O/U): 7 (Over -113 | Under -107)

Odds via standard market consensus as of April 7.

The betting market positions the home club as a sturdy -162 moneyline favorite. Stripping out the 4.38% vig, the vig-free implied probabilities sit at 59.24% for the favorites and 40.76% for the underdog Diamondbacks. Bettors looking for a higher payout can target the -1.5 runline at +140 plus-money, while backing the visitors to keep it within a single run requires laying a hefty -169. Early handle has slightly shifted the total; after opening at a flat seven runs with even money on the Over, the market has bumped the Over to -113, dropping the Under to -107.

Zac Gallen vs Freddy Peralta 2026 Stats

Statistic	Gallen (ARI)	Peralta (NYM)
W-L Record	1-1	1-1
ERA	3.60	4.36
WHIP	1.10	1.06
xFIP	4.36	1.72
FIP	4.28	3.56
K/9	3.60	12.19
BB/9	1.80	1.74
Opp. BA	.237	.225

Zac Gallen vs Mets

GS	IP	ERA	W-L	H	HR	BB	SO	OppAVG	OppOPS
8	44.0	3.07	2-2	29	3	21	46	.182	.577

Freddy Peralta vs Diamondbacks

GS	G	IP	ERA	WL	H	HR	BB	SO	OppAVG	OppOPS
4	6	26.2	1.35	4-0	12	0	16	35	.138	.483

Best Mets vs Diamondbacks Predictions & Picks

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-160 at Bet365)

The Diamondbacks have stumbled out of the batter’s box on the road, dragging a winless 0-3 away record into Queens. Conversely, the Mets have defended Citi Field beautifully, posting a 2-1 home mark. The primary catalyst is the pitching staff, which has consistently generated weak contact and ground ball double plays, resulting in a collective 2.53 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Given the visitors’ early road woes and the home team’s reliable command of the strike zone, laying the -162 juice on the Mets offers the most logical baseline value.

Pick: Under 7 Runs (-105 at Bet365)

This matchup features two proven rotational pieces—Freddy Peralta and Gallen—capable of deep, shutdown outings. The Mets excel at suppressing runs, a major issue for a Diamondbacks lineup batting just .211 on the road. Situational trends do not heavily support run suppression: over their last 10 games, the Mets have stayed Under the total 20% of the time, while the Diamondbacks have hit the Under at a 30% clip. Expect a tightly contested pitcher’s duel that stays below the conservative 7-run O/U threshold.

Top Diamondbacks vs Mets Player Prop Bets

Pick: Freddy Peralta 7+ Strikeouts (+137 at DraftKings)

Peralta has been a high-volume strikeout artist early in the 2026 campaign, making his strikeout prop an actionable target. Through 31 innings pitched, the right-hander has posted an elite 12.19 K/9 rate. Utilizing a dynamic pitch mix, he routinely forces hitters to chase outside the zone. Against a Diamondbacks lineup pressed to keep pace in a pitcher-friendly park, Peralta is positioned to rack up the punchouts and easily clear this prop total.

Pick: Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Total Hits (-148 at DraftKings)

While the visitors’ road offense has sputtered, Carroll remains a high-value outlier. The dynamic outfielder steps into the box batting a robust .313, having collected 10 hits across his first 32 at-bats. Even against top-tier pitching, his elite bat-to-ball skills and speed down the line make him a constant threat to beat the shift or leg out an infield single. Anticipate Carroll navigating this tough matchup effectively to secure a hit, providing a clear edge on his Over total hits prop.

Corbin Carroll vs Freddy Peralta

PA	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OPS
6	5	2	0	0	1	2	.400	1.100

Corbin Carroll vs Mets Bullpen

PA	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OPS
26	22	2	0	1	4	4	.091	.322