Jets vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread & Predictions: Why the Jets (+3) Are the Top Pick for AFC East Showdown

The New York Jets welcome the Miami Dolphins to MetLife Stadium on Sunday with the stakes not exactly high. It’s a mostly meaningless 5-7 vs. 3-9 matchup at the bottom of the AFC East, though the Fins are still alive and on the playoff periphery.

That being said, both teams enter this matchup with losing records but nearly identical offensive profiles – the Dolphins averaging 20.2 points per game compared to the Jets’ 19.5 – but their contrasting styles set up an intriguing tactical battle. Miami’s air raid offense, averaging 300.2 total yards per contest and led by Tua Tagovailoa, will face a Jets defense that has shown vulnerability in the secondary. Meanwhile, New York’s ground and pound approach, anchored by Breece Hall (projected for 69.5 rushing yards in this contest), looks to exploit potential gaps in Miami’s run defense.

The quarterback matchup between Tagovailoa and Tyrod Taylor presents a fascinating study in contrasts, with both signal-callers operating behind units tagged as “turnover-prone.” This makes ball security and field position battle critical factors in determining the outcome.

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Betting Odds

The betting market has established the visiting Dolphins as road favorites, with the line movement telling a story of early professional money backing Miami. The game total sits at a conservative 41.5 points, reflecting both teams’ offensive limitations and defensive capabilities.

• Moneyline: Dolphins -155 | Jets +128
• Spread: Dolphins -3 (-103) | Jets +3 (-118)
• Total: Over 41.5 (-106) | Under 41.5 (-114)

The line has shifted meaningfully since opening, with Miami moving from -146 to -155 on the moneyline and the spread jumping from -2.5 to -3 points. This movement suggests sharp money has backed the Dolphins despite their documented road struggles. The total has remained stable at 41.5, though the under has become more expensive at -114 compared to its opening price of -122.

Based on current consensus odds, the implied no-vig probability breakdown shows:

• Miami Dolphins: 58.1% chance to win
• New York Jets: 41.9% chance to win

Jets vs Dolphins Pick & Prediction

This AFC East battle shapes up as a classic field position contest where defensive schemes and third down conversions will determine the winner. While Miami holds statistical advantages in total offense, their road performance creates a significant betting angle that cannot be ignored.

The Dolphins enter with a concerning 1-4 road record this season. More damaging is their 1-6 record on the road following a victory over their last seven such situations – a trend that strongly favors the home underdog. The Jets have responded well in this exact spot, covering the spread in four of their last five games as home underdogs.

With both offenses averaging a combined 39.7 points per game and carrying “turnover-prone” designations, the under presents strong value. Miami’s recent games have consistently fallen short of projected totals. The quarterback matchup favors experience, but Fields’ mobility could prove decisive in short-yardage situations.

The three-point spread provides excellent cushion for a Jets team playing with house money. Miami’s road demons and New York’s desperation create the perfect storm for an upset.

• Pick: New York Jets +3 (-118)
• Total: Under 41.5 (-114)

Dolphins vs Jets Player Props: Key Matchup Analysis

The conservative game total and defensive nature of this matchup create several appealing prop betting opportunities. Quarterback passing totals reflect expectations of a grind-it-out affair, while skill position players offer varying degrees of value based on projected game script.

Player	Team	Passing Yards	Passing TDs
Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	209.5 (-115 Over)	1.5 (+127 Over)
Tyrod Taylor	NYJ	178.5 (-115 Over)	1.5 (+176 Over)

Player	Team	Rushing Yards	Anytime TD Odds
Devon Achane	MIA	81.5 (-125 Over)	-148
Breece Hall	NYJ	69.5 (-115 Over)	-101
Ollie Gordon	MIA	15.5 (-112 Over)	+300

Player	Team	Receiving Yards	Anytime TD Odds
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	66.5 (-117 Over)	+183
Adonai Mitchell	NYJ	47.5 (-117 Over)	+240
John Metchie III	NYJ	37.5 (-116 Over)	+333
Darren Waller	MIA	33.5 (-113 Over)	+243
Mason Taylor	NYJ	26.5 (-118 Over)	+315
Malik Washington	MIA	25.5 (-113 Over)	+367

The prop market clearly expects a run-heavy game script for both teams. Tyrod Taylor’s modest 178.5 passing yards line suggests the Jets will lean heavily on their ground and pound attack, while his touchdown prop is priced expecting limited red zone passing attempts. For Miami, Devon Achane’s 81.5 rushing yards line indicates the Dolphins plan to establish early down dominance.

In the receiving corps, Adonai Mitchell emerges as the Jets’ primary downfield threat with his 47.5-yard line leading all New York pass catchers. His development as a reliable target has coincided with improved offensive efficiency, making his props particularly intriguing in a potential shootout scenario.

Best Dolphins vs Jets Player Prop Bet

In a game projected for defensive dominance and conservative offensive approaches, targeting guaranteed volume provides the clearest path to profit. While passing games carry inherent volatility, running back usage offers more predictable outcomes.

Best Prop Bet: Breece Hall Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The game script aligns perfectly for Hall to exceed this modest total. As home underdogs, the Jets will prioritize ball control and field position, naturally leading to increased rushing attempts. Hall’s projected 17.5 carries would require only 4.0 yards per attempt to clear this line – well within his season average.

Miami’s defensive front may face challenges against power running schemes, particularly when missing key interior linemen like Benito Jones (ankle). Hall’s dual-threat capability also provides insurance, as his combined rushing and receiving line sits at 94.5 yards. With the Jets likely trailing early, Hall becomes the primary weapon for sustaining drives and controlling clock management. His -101 anytime touchdown odds reflect his goal-line usage, but the rushing yards prop offers superior value with lower variance.

Dolphins vs Jets Statistical Breakdown

The numbers reveal two teams with remarkably similar offensive profiles but contrasting philosophical approaches. Miami’s slight statistical advantages mask underlying efficiency concerns that favor the Jets in key situational metrics.

Stat Category	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets
Points Per Game	20.2	19.5
Total Yards Per Game	300.2	280.5
Passing Yards Per Game	183.1	146.8
Rushing Yards Per Game	117.1	133.7
3rd Down Conversion %	37.4%	37.3%
Red Zone TD %	50.0%	53.6%
Turnover Differential	-4	-12

Miami’s 19.7-yard advantage in total offense comes primarily through the air, where Tagovailoa’s pocket presence generates 36.3 more passing yards per game than the Jets’ aerial attack. However, New York’s ground game superiority (133.7 vs 117.1 rushing yards) suggests better ability to control game flow and clock management.

The efficiency metrics tell a more nuanced story. While third down conversion rates are virtually identical, the Jets hold a meaningful edge in red zone touchdown percentage (53.6% vs 50.0%). This 3.6% difference becomes magnified in low-scoring games where every possession matters.

The turnover differential presents the most concerning trend for both teams. Miami’s -4 mark, while problematic, pales compared to New York’s disastrous -12 differential. This seven-turnover gap represents the single most significant statistical disadvantage the Jets carry into this matchup, potentially negating their home-field advantage and superior red zone efficiency.

Dolphins vs Jets Head-to-Head History

Recent history heavily favors Miami in this AFC East rivalry, with the Dolphins winning five of the last six meetings between these division foes. This dominance has created a psychological edge that extends beyond simple win-loss records into betting market perception and player confidence.

The most striking trend from recent matchups involves scoring totals. The last three consecutive games between these teams have sailed over their respective betting totals, creating a strong historical precedent that directly contradicts this week’s conservative 41.5-point line. This trend becomes particularly interesting when considering Miami’s current form – the over has failed in each of their last five games this season.

From a betting perspective, the Dolphins’ recent success has coincided with their ability to exploit the Jets’ secondary through quick passing concepts and intermediate routes. However, personnel changes and defensive scheme adjustments on both sides make direct historical comparisons less reliable for handicapping purposes.

The psychological component cannot be understated. Miami enters with the confidence of recent dominance, while the Jets carry the desperation of a team seeking to break a frustrating divisional losing streak. These intangible factors often manifest in early-game execution and crucial fourth-quarter situations.

Dolphins vs Jets Injury Report Analysis

Both teams face significant personnel questions heading into Sunday’s kickoff, with defensive secondary injuries creating potential mismatches and offensive line concerns affecting game planning on both sides.

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Fantasy/Betting Impact
Justin Fields	QB	Knee	Limited	Mobility limitations could severely impact the Jets’ designed rollouts and short-yardage quarterback runs, making the Under 41.5 more attractive
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.	CB	Hip	Did Not Practice	His probable absence weakens the Jets’ perimeter coverage, creating potential value on Jaylen Waddle receiving props
Benito Jones	DT	Ankle	Did Not Practice	Missing Miami’s interior run stopper significantly boosts Breece Hall’s rushing prop value and the Jets’ ground game efficiency
Jermaine Johnson	LB	Ankle	Limited	Reduced pass rush effectiveness gives Tua Tagovailoa additional pocket time, potentially boosting his passing yards prop
Tony Adams	SAF	Groin	Did Not Practice	Another secondary loss for New York, further compromising their ability to defend Miami’s intermediate passing concepts
Qwan’tez Stiggers	CB	Concussion	Limited	Concussion protocol uncertainty adds volatility to the Jets’ defensive backfield depth and coverage schemes

The injury situation heavily favors Miami’s offensive game plan. With multiple Jets defensive backs questionable or worse, the Dolphins’ receiving corps could find favorable matchups throughout the contest

Conversely, Benito Jones’ ankle injury represents a major loss for Miami’s run defense. His absence opens clear running lanes for Breece Hall and could force the Dolphins into more aggressive defensive schemes that create additional opportunities for the Jets’ play-action passing attack.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings. You can bet this game with a DraftKings promo code.

disclaimer: AI helped in the creation of this story