The New York Mets split the first two games of a four-game set with the Washington Nationals, leaving a Sunday matinee for the ages.
Both teams will hand the ball to pitchers who have performed above and beyond expectations. The Mets’ big righty Tylor Megill has given hitters fits with a new fastball-slider-sinker pitch mix, and has yet to allow a home run this season. Washington’s Mitchell Parker, a big lefty, will counter with his own fastball-splitter-curveball selection.
It’s a great potential pitchers’ duel in an otherwise meaningless game between the first-place Mets and last-place Nats. Two pitchers, each having excellent starts to their season, determined to keep them going before regressing back to the mean.
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
TV: SNY
Run Line: Mets -1.5, O/U 8.5
Pitching Matchup: Tylor Megill (3-2, 1.09 ERA) vs. Mitchell Parker (3-1, 1.39 ERA). Megill is coming off a fantastic outing against the Phillies: 5.1 innings of one-hit ball with 10 strikeouts. Were it not for four walks, he easily could have pitched deeper into the game. He isn’t overachieving either, with the 2.18 FIP and 3.01 expected ERA (xERA) to prove it.
Mitchell Parker, on the other hand, is overachieving. He throws a splitter, but his whiff rate (Whiff%) is in the 24th percentile. He’s also gotten very lucky, with a 3.40 FIP and 4.61 expected FIP (xFIP). Digging a little deeper, let’s talk about Stuff+ (Stuff-plus), the stat which measures everything on a pitch from movement to shape to velocity to spin, everything.
Parker’s Stuff+ is 92, eight below the baseline average. Megill’s, by comparison, is a career-best 114.
X-Factor: Brandon Nimmo. The fan-favorite outfielder is off to a slow start this season and is batting only .200 with a pair of home runs. He’s slowly looked better, but still needs an impact game. Lucky for the Mets, the speedy Nimmo handles Washington very well. He’s hit .278 with 14 home runs against the Nationals in his career, and an even better .310 at Nationals Park.
It’s the perfect moment for Nimmo to have a big game, but only if he stays patient and waits for the best pitches.
Prediction: We’ll hand this one to the Mets for one simple reason: Megill’s only issue is allowing too many walks, and Washington simply doesn’t draw them. The Nationals rank 25th in baseball with a walk rate (BB%) of 8.2%.
Thus, if you’re on New York sports betting apps, bet the Mets and the over. Make a parlay with a big day from Nimmo if you’re feeling bullish on a Sunday. Mets 7, Nationals 2
