The New York Mets shocked baseball last October not only when they backed into a Wild Card spot, but beat Bryce Harper and his Philadelphia Phillies in short order in the NLDS. The Mets needed just five games to dispatch heavily favored Philly.
Fast forward three weeks into the 2025 campaign, and the standings are a surprise. New York, boosted by Pete Alonso’s strong start, sits atop the NL East with Philadelphia trailing by two games. Miami, Washington, and last place Atlanta are all battling for the middle ground.
The Mets have plenty of momentum going into the series, having just swept the St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies, meanwhile, have won three of four, and would love nothing more than to leapfrog their longtime rivals.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY
Run Line: Mets +1.5; O/U 8
Pitching Matchup: Aaron Nola (0-4, 6.65 ERA) vs. Tylor Megill (2-0, 1.40 ERA). It’s been a rough start for Nola, whose underlying metrics are actually decent despite his slow start. He’s just run into awful luck with both increased walks and hitters having a .377 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against him. Nola has a 3.46 career ERA in 28 starts versus the Mets and a 3.25 mark at Citi Field, so this could be a good time for a turnaround start.
On the Mets’ side, Megill has been sustainably overachieving. The soft contact specialist’s 1.40 ERA is backed by a 2.21 FIP, 3.51 xERA, and 3.40 xFIP. The big righty also owns a 2.51 career ERA against Philly, so this could either be a tight duel or a Mets blowout.
X-Factor: Juan Soto. If there’s ever a time for a Juan Soto Mets breakout game, it’s this one. Mr. $765 million has gotten off to a generally okay start with his new team, batting .252 with three homers and 12 RBI. However, those numbers are largely empty calories. Soto is batting just .222 with runners in scoring position (RISP) and an even worse .200 with men on base. He’s hit .375 in late & close situations, but without any RBI.
So where does that leave Soto in this series? Well, he knows Philadelphia all too well after starting his career in Washington. Soto is a .292 career hitter against the Phillies with 19 home runs and a .981 OPS. If tonight is the Mets’ night, Juan Soto should be leading the way.
Prediction: This is a tough call because it truly does seem like either team’s game to lose. Which version of Aaron Nola will show up? Will Philly’s bats humble Megill?
In this case, it’s Nola’s time to shine in a low-scoring affair. If you’re scrolling New York sports betting apps, Philly seems the smart bet along with the under. Put Juan Soto down for two total bases too as his Mets come close, but no cigar. Phillies 4, Mets 2
