The Mets owe Oneil Cruz at least two steak dinners

Yesterday looked like what’s become the punchline of many New York Mets Opening Days:

Enter Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz, who led off Freddy Peralta’s Mets debut with a single before scoring on Brandon Lowe’s two-run shot a batter later. Peralta then struck out the side before reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes took the mound. Forget that the Pirates generally suck, nobody wants to play from behind early against a pitcher like Skenes.

Lucky for the Mets, it was clear Skenes didn’t have his best stuff early. Francisco Lindor walked, moved to third on Juan Soto’s single, and then scored on Bo Bichette’s sac fly. Soto then moved to second on Jorge Polanco’s swinging-bunt single before Luis Robert Jr. capped a 10-pitch at-bat (plus five foul balls) with a walk. Bases loaded for Brett Baty, and what looked like a playable fly ball to Cruz in center instead became a triple.

In fairness to Cruz, he did get a bad read from the start. Moving inward was the fatal mistake, plus the expected batting average (xBA) on Baty’s triple was .540 and came off the bat at 103 mph. It was a tough catch to begin with. Marcus Semien’s double that scored Baty next, though? Not so much with an xBA of .020:

Skenes didn’t make it out of the first inning, taking the loss as the Mets won 11-7. No, this doesn’t mean the Pirates would have won had Cruz made those catches. Just that if he did, maybe Skenes would have found his groove and at least kept the game close.

What’s more, the numbers suggest Cruz maybe should have had both of them. Looking at StatCast, his expected catch percentage—just one game in, mind you—is 97%.

His actual catch percentage is 60%.

Again. In all likelihood, the Mets would have won the game even if Cruz made both catches. Skenes didn’t have his best stuff either and even if he got out of the inning? He wouldn’t have suddenly been back in Cy Young form. His strikes were hitting north-south, not east-west. The Mets took advantage and were rewarded with the W.

But in the meantime, Brett Baty and Marcus Semien should show Cruz some New York hospitality and get him and his teammates a table at Harry’s Cafe and Steak down in the Financial District. Or Peter Luger’s in Brooklyn. It’s only fair, right?

Anyway, jokes aside, yesterday was just the latest example of how Oneil Cruz, for all his potential, is just a crap fielder. Shortstop didn’t work and neither is the outfield.

Even worse is the Pirates will continue to trot Cruz out in center for the foreseeable future. He has a -18 defensive runs saved (DRS) as an outfielder, but +2 outs above average (OAA) and +5 fielding run value (FRV).

Both teams have Friday off before taking the field again at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday March 29. Mitch Keller takes the mound for Pittsburgh, while the Mets hand the ball to lefty David Peterson.