NY Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Battle for AL East resumes

The New York Yankees took two in Atlanta ahead of a key series in Toronto, and this could be a series that decides a division…in August.

The Blue Jays are on an absolute hot streak, having gone 28-13 since June 1. This, combined with the Yankees’ June swoon, allowed them to take over first place in the AL East. They currently hold a three-game lead over New York, whose bats returning to form has coincided with their pitching going cold.

And despite their slide, New York still owns the best run-differential in the American League (and 2nd overall in MLB) at +112. Toronto’s, by comparison, is a much more modest +26. What’s more, the Blue Jays just swept the San Francisco Giants coming out of the All-Star Break and outscored them 18-9.

This all being said, which versions of each team will actually show up this week?

Time: 7:07 p.m. ET

TV: YES

Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-120), O/U 8.5

Key Storyline: Will this series decide the AL East race? The Blue Jays have forced their critics to eat some crow during this hot streak. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been talking this team up for years, and they’re finally in first place. However, it should be noted that between the run differential and the Yankees’ slump, Toronto very much overachieved/hot-streaked into this position.

That said, what’s going to happen this week? Well, that depends on the Yankees’ bats. They’re 10-16 vs. the AL East this season, though nine of those losses came in June and July this season. Furthermore, the pitching staff has also struggled to keep runs off the board in July. Starters have posted a 5.83 ERA and relievers an even worse 6.86 mark, making for an overall ballooned 6.30 ERA.

Will this series decide the division? Only if things get off the rails real fast in one direction.

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (10-6, 3.08 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (6-7, 4.19 ERA). This may truly be a case of who has the worse day. Gausman has had a tough time against New York this season, going 0-1 with a 9.39 ERA in two starts. Similarly, Toronto has tagged Rodon to a 4.85 ERA in eight career starts versus the Jay Birds. In his one start against Toronto this season, Rodon labored through five innings and, though he technically didn’t allow them, was charged with two earned runs after Mark Leiter Jr. blew the lead in a 5-4 loss.

Gausman, similarly, also labored through five innings of two-run ball against New York earlier this month. He didn’t get the win, but Toronto took advantage of New York’s slumping bullpen and won that game 12-5.

We should note, however, that in his last start, in an 11-0 win over the Cubs, Rodon pitched eight shutout innings and in ace form.

X-Factor: Bullpen. Watching Aaron Boone go to his relievers automatically spikes the blood pressure as it is, but even more so as of late. That 6.86 ERA in July is a perfect storm of bullpen snafu. Jonathan Loaisiga is back from Tommy John surgery, but he’s giving up over two home runs per nine innings. Fernando Cruz is injured again, and Leiter was getting burned by BABIP before landing on the IL himself. We never quite know which versions of Luke Weaver or Devin Williams will enter a game, and Ian Hamilton is a wild card.

This has the usually unstoppable Yankees bullpen ranking an uncharacteristic 21st in baseball with a 4.13 ERA. The why of it is simple: They walk too many hitters, about 3.9 BB/9. New York’s relievers do rank fourth in K/9 at 9.4, but the Blue Jays simply don’t strike out. They have the best strikeout rate (K%) in baseball at 17.5%. That means soft contact and controlling the zone, both key weaknesses of the Yankee bullpen.

Prediction: This isn’t an easy call, for both baseball and gambling perspectives. On the baseball side, the Yankees are the better team on paper and are only in second place from an extended stretch of underachieving, but Toronto is also white hot. On the numbers side, it depends which version of whose pitching shows up tonight. Thus, if you’re browsing New York sports betting apps, roll the following: the Blue Jays’ line, the over, and a home run for George Springer. He’s batting .351 in July and .440 against the Yankees this year. Blue Jays 7, Yankees 5