NY Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Key AL East rivalry heads north
The New York Yankees hope to get back to their regular slugging ways when they begin a four-game set against the Blue Jays in Toronto on Monday.
It’s a more important series than people realize. Thanks to a June swoon, the Yankees only hold a three-game lead over third-place Toronto in the AL East. However, Toronto is also overachieving and over-performing. As has been the case for most of the decade, the rest of the AL East often does this whenever the Yankees underachieve.
Well, after taking two of three over the Athletics over the weekend, including a two-home run game from Aaron Judge on Sunday, New York’s bats would love to reassert themselves in an important divisional series. Especially one that, under the worst circumstances, could cost them first place, and possibly second too.
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: YES
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-145), O/U 8.5
Key Storyline: Can Yankees clip the Blue Jays’ wings again? It’s too easy to remember the start of the 2022 season, when Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. declared the “movie” was about to start and Toronto was the team to beat. Since then, the Yankees have gone 27-21 against the Jays and have won an AL Pennant. Toronto, on the other hand, steadily declined and are 0-4 across two AL Wild Card appearances.
Granted, Toronto is still only three games behind New York, but that’s largely due to starting the month 9-2 while the Yankees hit the skids. We should also note that despite ranking ninth in MLB with a 104 wRC+ and owns the best team strikeout rate (K%) at 17.7%, Toronto’s run differential is still -4. Ranking 20th in MLB with just 83 team home runs will do that.
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (9-5, 2.92 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (0-0, 5.63 ERA). The Max Scherzer Hall of Fame Compiling Tour continues Monday. The veteran righty signed a one-year, $15.5 million contract with Toronto in the offseason, but is only making his third start of the season due to a thumb injury. Now approaching his 41st birthday and on the decline, Mad Max is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 12 career starts against the Yankees. No doubt he’s hoping their bats go quiet again.
Rodon, on the other hand, has gone full ace-mode since Gerrit Cole went down with Tommy John surgery in spring training. But don’t expect him to automatically shove. He owns a 5.02 career ERA against Toronto and an awful 8.36 ERA at the Rogers Centre. This means that against an aggressive Blue Jays lineup that doesn’t strike out, the big lefty needs to lean less on his fastball and more on his changeup and sinker.
X-Factor: DJ LeMahieu. We’ve seen the same problem with the Yankees’ lineup for years. All too often, Judge is relied upon to carry the load with no reliable co-captain. Juan Soto last season and Cody Bellinger this year are the closest the two-time MVP has had to help. And if the top of the lineup isn’t producing, especially if the Yankees ares lumping and Toronto is on the schedule? That means literally anyone must step up and take the reins.
Enter LeMahieu, who has hit the Jays better than any AL East team. He’s a .313 lifetime hitter with an .858 OPS against Toronto. Is he still turning 37 in two weeks and clearly on the decline? Yes. Was his six-year $90 million free agency deal, in hindsight, a mistake? Absolutely.
But even under those circumstances, DJ LeMahieu is still seeing the ball the best he has in years. No more is there an automatically collective sigh when he steps into the batters box. Instead, there is, dare I say it, a tiny bit of faith?
Prediction: Even with high scoring potential, fortune favors the Yankees on Monday. Toronto’s pitching ranks 21st in baseball with a 4.20 ERA and owns the third-worst ground ball rate (GB%) at 38.2%. Add that Scherzer is fresh back from injury, and picks on New York sports betting apps suddenly look easy. Bet the Yankees, the over, and maybe a Judge and/or Vlady Jr. parlay to boost your payout.
Josh Benjamin has been a staff writer at ESNY since 2018. He has had opinions about everything, especially the Yankees and Knicks. He co-hosts the “Bleacher Creatures” podcast and is always looking for new pieces of sports history to uncover, usually with a Yankee Tavern chicken parm sub in hand.
